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That's about how I'd rank them, possibly swapping the Mavs and Grizz depending on how this last month plays out.
The 2012 NBA Playoffs are already around the corner. A month from today, the regular season ends. Which Western Conference teams do I hope the Spurs avoid in the playoffs? IMO, the top five teams below are pretty much set in stone.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
The Spurs struggle with bigmen with length who can score in the paint. The Lakers have a pair of bigs who definitely fit that description. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili depend on finishing in the paint, and that's not easy to do against the Lakers. There's no Bruce Bowen to sic on Kobe Bryant. Ramon Sessions is also a huge upgrade over the corpse of Derek Fisher. And though the Spurs are much deeper than the Lakers, depth becomes much less important in the postseason. Of all the matchups out West, this is by far the most unfavorable for the Spurs.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Despite the fact that the Spurs have played the Thunder well during the regular season recently, the amount of talent on OKC's roster simply cannot be ignored. When the pace slows and the game begins to hinge on one-on-one situations, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will be extremely tough to slow down. Add in James Harden (the closest thing in the NBA to the next Manu Ginobili), the athletic shotblocking nightmare that is Serge Ibaka, and their beaucoup solid role players, it's safe to say the Thunder won't be going down without a fight.
3. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs have experienced their dry spells this season but I shouldn't have to quote Rudy T to explain why it would be unwise to underestimate Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki hasn't done well against the Spurs this season but come playoff time, he's still the most intimidating offensive force in the West. Defensively, the Mavs are the most well-coached squad in the conference and they'd be able to take the Spurs out of their comfort zones much better than any other team in this half of the bracket.
4. Memphis Grizzlies
With Zach Randolph rounding into shape and Marc Gasol enjoying his first All-Star campaign, it's no secret that duo creates matchup problems for San Antonio. If Rudy Gay can play at the top of his game while complementing their big boys in the middle, the Grizzlies might move all the way up to No. 2 on this list. Fortunately, it doesn't appear as if these Grizzlies have the chemistry of last year's Grizzlies. Then again, there's still another month for Memphis to rediscover that magic.
5. Los Angeles Clippers
They're horrible coached. Their management still doesn't have a clue. Donald Sterling is still Donald Sterling. That said, the duo of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin is potentially as dangerous as any duo in the West. If Vinny Del Negro can accidentally stumble into a winning formula, the Clippers have the necessary talent to surprise any team in the West.
6. Denver Nuggets
Let's be honest: The Spurs are an offensive team this year. They aren't going to be winning anything if they solely depend on their defense to carry the load. With that in mind, the Nuggets are one of the few teams in the West that can claim their offense is better. If the Spurs get in a shootout with these guys, Denver has the weaponry to give San Antonio a run for their playoff lives.
7. Phoenix Suns
A couple weeks ago, it appeared as if the Suns were dead. However, following a 12-19 start, the Suns have won 13 of their previous 18 games heading into Tuesday's showdown in Phoenix. Their offense has really picked it up and the ageless Steve Nash shows few signs of slowing down. And I'm not even going to mention the sweep.
8. Utah Jazz
The Jazz have a ton of bigmen depth -- highlighted by Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson -- plus a pair of guards who have defended Tony Parker well in the past in Devin Harris and Earl Watson. If one of their swingmen emerges as anything resembling a star (watch out for Alec Burks), they could give San Antonio a real test.
9. Houston Rockets
The Rockets and Spurs always play close games. Always. It's not exactly a rivalry but with solid players such as Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin and that Argentine guy, it wouldn't be an easy series for San Antonio.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
The loss of Ricky Rubio really hurts the T'Wolves' chances of beating the Spurs in the playoffs. But Kevin Love is a beast, Rick Adelman is a very good coach and there are a handful of players on that roster with All-Star potential. We've already seen what happens when this young, talented bunch gets rolling in Minnesota.
That's about how I'd rank them, possibly swapping the Mavs and Grizz depending on how this last month plays out.
Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma would be nice.
Lowry is probably out for the season and even if he comes back in the playoffs he won't play on an all-star level cause of his infection.
To me Dallas looks bad, watched a lot of their games and I'm not impressed. I'm scared just of Dirk and Terry on that team, and now with Diaw and Jack even Dirk is not a Superman.
We always play good against OKC. Yes they've got Durant, Westbrook and Harden, but in the playoffs I think they will depend way too much on just the first two guys, and with Wesbrook on their side i like our chances.
Wouldn't mind to get Denver or PHX in the first round. The only team I wouldn't like in the first round is Memphis. I think we can beat them, but it could go 7 games and I don't want to see a 7 game series in the first round. With other teams I say 6 games max.
I just hope our role players like Green, Neal, Leonard and even Bonner will step up in the playoffs and won't play like pussies. I also hope Pop won't play Blair 20 minutes against a team like the Lakers or Memphis, cause then we'll have a big problem.
Last edited by Texas_Ranger; 03-26-2012 at 03:27 PM.
Clips/Lakeshow/Thunder
Denver/LAL/OKC/Bulls
Not sure if OKC belongs ahead of Dallas and Memphis. With OKC, it would be a track meet but with the additions of Jackson and Diaw, I'm pretty sure they can handle them in a 7 game series.
1. Memphis - moster frontline, beast perimeter defenders to neutralize our top guns, young, hungry
2. Dallas - they play like absolute animals vs. the spurs
3. Lakers - moster frontline, so-so perimeter defenders, no depth
4. OKC - they don't match up with Spurs too well, but if on a roll, still dangerous
I`d like Houston, Pheonix in 1st round, Clipps in 2nd (but I dont think they win againt LAL or Mem) and OKC in finals.
1. Lakers
2. OKC
3. Memphis
4. Dallas-- I don't think Dirk is the "most intimidating offensive force" for us. We have a lot of options for Dirk now. To me Bynum or a healthy Randolph.
I'd put Memphis #2 right now despite their troubles integrating Z-Bo back in the lineup. Tony Allen is still the best defender in the West and can create a lot of problems for Manu/TP. Their frontline is second only to LA but they have a better coach and better overall depth.
The Lakers still pose the biggest threat to the Spurs because of Bynum/Gasol but i like the Spurs' chances against them for several reasons:
1) No Phil Jackson / Mike Brown: Phil has historically owned Pop the last decade. Pop always seemed to have a mental block when coaching against PJ. That shouldn't be an issue with Mike Brown.
2) No Odom: Odom has always been one of the toughest matchups for the Spurs. He's played horrible this year but the absence of a 2008-2011 Lamar Odom really helps the Spurs.
3) Lack of Outside Shooting: They don't have a reliable 3point threat meaning Pop might be more willing to double the post to neutralize Bynum/Gasol.I don't think the Lakers have anybody that can consistently make opponents pay for doubling their bigs.
4) Depth: As you said, it becomes less of an issue in the playoffs but the Lakers realistically have only 4 or 5 players that are legit NBA players. Their bench is abysmal meaning in a long, drawn out series, it could eventually take its toll on their starters.
5) Defending Kobe: Last year, i didn't think the spurs had a reliable defender they could put on Kobe and not have to help. With Kobe in full on chuck mode this season and the addition of Kawhi/Jack/Green, i think the Spurs are more than fully capable of defending Bryant very well.
I like a healthy Spurs team chances against any of the above teams, tbh. I just don't know if they could go through 2 out of those top 5 teams and still have enough left in the tank to beat Miami or Chicago....
Unless Lakers start losing a lot of games, Spurs and Lakers will get the 2nd/3rd seed which they will face in the secodn round if they advance.
The key will be to counter their frontcourt of Gasol/Bynum. Spurs could either try to counter that size with Duncan/Splitter or trying to move Gasol to the perimeter to open the paint by using a lot of Diaw/Bonner at the PF spot. I guess Pop will go with the secodn option.
When you consider that:
- Lakers will likely be on Spurs playoffs' road.
- The Bynum/Gasol frontcourt is damn good and tall especially with Bynum being great since the ASB.
- Splitter is having a lot of minor injuries.
It let me think that Spurs could sign as 15th player a random 7 footer with Lakers matchup in sight. Spurs could go with signing a prospect or with signing nobody to save some money but if they go with someone to help them this year, a defensive minded big center is what will help them more.
Lets wait and see how the Spurs stack up against the Lakers before declaring them the worst match-up. I'm not convinced Memphis is still a legitimate threat this year, but there is a month and one more game against them to go. As of now I'd put OKC at #1, Dallas at #2, LAL/Memphis at #3, and Houston/Denver at #4. Spurs can and would beat the rest of the playoff contenders in 5 games max.
Disagree on 3. Dallas. I think we match up very well against them. Also, throw in all the different looks we have now to throw on Dirk with Leonard, Jax, and Diaw and I like our chances a lot against that squad.
I can't give a specific order but I can group teams in 3 categories :
- teams that are going to be tough to beat: Lakers, Dallas, Memphis
- teams that aren't going to go down easily but that we should be able to manage in a 7-game series: OKC, Clippers, Denver
- teams that don't really stand a chance: all the others
First of all I disagree about the bench (and depth in general) being minimized in the playoffs. Quite to the contrary, a deeper bench contributes in several ways:
- helps get over whichever minor injuries are bound to happen
- helps be fresher, dealing with games in short succession, travel, etc.
- helps with match-ups, giving more flexibility and avoiding being severely outmatched
There's no way one can look at last year's situation and think it wouldn't have been different with the deeper/more experienced bench we have now compared to RJ and Hill.
Lakers have always been tough, but Phil not being there makes a world of difference in my view. In the end the Lakers are a highly dysfunctional team and the tempering forces (Phil, Fisher) are gone, which gives Kobe the leeway he needs to turn the team into the Kobe show... something that never, ever worked. On top of that Mike Brown remembers the last time he face the Spurs. Can't be a pleasant memory, being schooled like that.
Dallas... I think we're roughly 50-50 in terms of playoffs disappointments. Dirk is dangerous. Anybody underestimating them is stupid.
Memphis, I think we all remember last year. Some key components are gone, but as long as Gasol-ZBo can control the paint, we're toast. Hopefully Splitter (and to a lesser extent, Diaw) can help a lot more than last year. Parker isn't the same player either, Manu might well be healthy, Duncan looks younger than ever... this should be enough.
OKC, Denver and the Clippers: they can put up a fight, but I'm confident they can't go the full length.
would like to see
Phoenix
Memphis
LA
theme of playoffs would be redemption
and L.A just so we could on them again
I'd much rather play Dallas than Memphis or the Thunder, tbh.
Other than Randolph and Gasol, the Spurs can defend the rest of Memphis's team.
Don't get the panic this year.
"that Argentine guy"
the problem is Memphis players can defend our entire team. Something OKC, Lakers even Dallas can't
Bring the grizz for 1st round, I want revenge
Instead of LA it should be Dallas to make it a true redemption theme. Also, put it in the order of MEM, PHX, and DAL.
My ranking:
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. Memphis Grizzlies
All very interesting. How do y'all think we would do against either the Heat or Bulls if we were to get out of the West?
I actually fear Chicago more than Miami, though both would be tough.
I'd rather see Miami fail early and we face a 1st time finalist Chicago
this year Miami in the finals would be tough,
Its threads like this that make me sad the regular season is ending. Cuz we most likely are going to get buzzsawed in round one like last year
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