Most Difficult Playoff Matchups for the Spurs

[RodNIc91]

2. How can a Spurs fan scoff the Lakers in one breathe and then profess their fear of the Grizzlies in their next breath? Gasol + Bynum >>>>>>>>> Gasol + Randolph. Kobe + Barnes + Artest >>>>>>> Gay + Allen + Mayo. Sessions + Blake = Conley + nothing. It doesn't even make sense. The Lakers are like an upgraded version of the Grizzlies.

A few thoughts on the laker matchup.
- Jax vs. Barnes/Artest should be a fun matchup
- I think a key matchup should be blake vs. Neal. IMO it can go either way.
- Although Gasol and Bynum are a nightmare, like Elnono said its not like they're gonna play the entire 48 mins the entire series. Besides them their other bigs are scrubs. I can actually envision the bonner-splitter like a great matchup problem for them. And if they go with artest at the 4 our small ball lineups are way better.
- It should be a pretty even matchup so I think the deciding factor should be Pop's adjustments to counter brown's. A couple of strong wins should spark some tussle between him and kobe which should mess their chemistry.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Gasol and Bynum have owned Parker, manu, and Tim in the recent past.

Parkers layups never fall in, Tim gets his post moves stuffed in his face, and when there lakers manage to miss a shot, there's a 70% chance giant Gary Coleman will get an un harassed tip in

[rmt]

That but the spurs numbers are too heavily weighted with RJ and drek games.
I would like to see from Jackson trade on at the end of the year how it goes.

The lakers front line is tough, but if Tim can be smart and get whoever he's being guarded by in foul trouble, you force them to go to the bench.

TD (or Splitter) can also just as easily get into foul trouble and have to go to the bench.

Sorry, edited my post, OKC would have to drop to #2 - possible since SA holds the tie-breaker.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

And I have never really understood why depth can't help in the playoffs.

You have the lakers starters, going against the spurs starters, but shouldn't our bench giving 100% tire the lakers starters going 100% while our starters are resting, ready to come back in and give 100% themselves?

I don't see how an enforcer type shoving the outta bynum couldn't help our chances over three course of a series (not that we have an enforcer but hypothetically)

[DPG21920]

Gasol and Bynum have owned Parker, manu, and Tim in the recent past.

Parkers layups never fall in, Tim gets his post moves stuffed in his face, and when there lakers manage to miss a shot, there's a 70% chance giant Gary Coleman will get an un harassed tip in

This is completely true, especially recently. People acting like the Lakers don't have anything beyond the big 3 need to wake up - that doesn't matter when your big 3 is ridiculously good on both ends and can play 42 minutes a game without dying like the Spurs big 3.

There's a reason the Heat went to a final with beyond the big 3 - Top tier talent at positions importance is critical.

That isn't to say SA can't beat LA, but do you trust Pop not to play Blair or Bonner really at all? Do the three balls fall against a tough defense? People saying they aren't scared of LA are lying to themselves. There is a reason why even with LA's recent struggles they are the third seed.

[rmt]

A few thoughts on the laker matchup.
- Jax vs. Barnes/Artest should be a fun matchup
- I think a key matchup should be blake vs. Neal. IMO it can go either way.
- Although Gasol and Bynum are a nightmare, like Elnono said its not like they're gonna play the entire 48 mins the entire series. Besides them their other bigs are scrubs. I can actually envision the bonner-splitter like a great matchup problem for them. And if they go with artest at the 4 our small ball lineups are way better.
- It should be a pretty even matchup so I think the deciding factor should be Pop's adjustments to counter brown's. A couple of strong wins should spark some tussle between him and kobe which should mess their chemistry.

Bynum averages 36 mins and Gasol over 37 mins IN THE REGULAR SEASON - they'll probably play close to 40 in the playoffs. The one thing that Pop might try is going with speed (mainly Green and Leonard). Quick athletes give LA problems. Neal probably shouldn't play much vs LA.

[benefactor]

Long story short, Spurs fans are over confident right now and have forgotten this team has not won a 2nd round game in a long, long time. People seem to have forgotten that this team is injury prone as well. Yes, the new guys look solid, but there is still ups and downs and not a lot of time to gel or practice.

Fact of the matter is that regardless of whether or not you like a match up or don't, that the gap between the top 5 teams is really nil. It will be about who's healthy and playing well. Match ups will be important, but from a talent and roster holes perspective most teams in the West are pretty even.

Teams with size are bad for the Spurs (Mavs/Lakers/MEM/OKC), Teams with below average talent are good for the Spurs (Hou, UTA, Den, Suns), but in either scenario there are virtually no series where the Spurs are heavily favored or dogs.

I rank the worst match ups as follows, but I say this with the caveat that the Spurs can beat all of these teams if healthy:

1)LA
2)OKC - DAL
3)MEM

The rest would be much more desirable. The absolute best case is the Spurs draw Houston/PHX/UTA/DEN in the first round while LA/DAL end up playing each other in the first as well. In that scenario, they can reach the WCF.

Good take. I don't think the Spurs will breeze through Memphis/Dallas/LAL or OKC but if healthy, I don't see anything that suggests they can't beat them.

[TD 21]

This is completely true, especially recently. People acting like the Lakers don't have anything beyond the big 3 need to wake up - that doesn't matter when your big 3 is ridiculously good on both ends and can play 42 minutes a game without dying like the Spurs big 3.

There's a reason the Heat went to a final with beyond the big 3 - Top tier talent at positions importance is critical.

That isn't to say SA can't beat LA, but do you trust Pop not to play Blair or Bonner really at all? Do the three balls fall against a tough defense? People saying they aren't scared of LA are lying to themselves. There is a reason why even with LA's recent struggles they are the third seed.

The Lakers big three isn't at the same level of the Heat's big three. The Heat have two of the three best players in the league; the Lakers don't have a top six player. And statistically, the Spurs big three is a lot closer to the Lakers big three than they're given credit for. Granted, they play significantly less minutes.

Blair will probably be dropped from the rotation. I agree with Bruno though, that we wouldn't see Duncan and Splitter paired together nearly as much as they should be, which ultimately could be the Spurs undoing in this match-up. Pop will probably go to Bonner and Diaw more, so as to pull Gasol away from the basket and give Parker and Ginobili more space to operate with and less shot blocking to deal with. If he's going to resort to that, I'd rather they just flat out concede the Bynum match-up, which is going to be extremely difficult anyway. Throw Diaw or Bonner on him, provide plenty of help, mix up the coverages and hope that Duncan can keep Gasol in check.

The reason they're the third seed is because, as usual, they've been remarkably healthy. Give the Grizzlies a healthy Randolph and Arthur for an entire season and they're probably the third seed. Give the Clippers a healthy Billups and a legit NBA caliber head coach and they're probably pushing for the third seed.

[therealtruth]

The Spurs' defensive numbers can go out the window as of about a week ago, I agree. But the Lakers' D is what it is due to those big guys inside.

To your point, Duncan's looked more dominant in the post the last month than he has in at least four years. I'd put this Duncan up against all the Lakers' bigs and expect them to be in foul trouble.

The Laker bigs have the luxury of taking turns defending Duncan and then resting on defense with Blair.

[DPG21920]

LA has two top 10 players and a third that is top 15. Their talent is distributed at the most critical positions as well.

[Obstructed_View]

The Laker bigs have the luxury of taking turns defending Duncan and then resting on defense with Blair.

True, though Blair has given them problems when he's moving well in the pick and roll.

[rascal]

1. Lakers Always seem to have the Spurs number and their size advantage gives them a big edge. They are better after their recent acquisitions and take it to a higher level when the playoffs roll around.

2. Mavs These guys have beaten the Spurs before and are the champs. They won't be going down easy. They have enough depth and lenght to cause the Spurs problems.

3. Memphis The Spurs have matchup problems with their size and like the lakers are a big roadblock for the inferior Spur frontline, have a great head coach motivator and the confidence they have beaten the Spurs as recently as last year.

4. OK City Having a great regular season and will come at the Spurs with superior youth and athleticism. Problem is they have never reached the top in the playoffs and the first time climb to the finals is usually the hardest to make.

No one else would beat the Spurs.

[RodNIc91]

Bynum averages 36 mins and Gasol over 37 mins IN THE REGULAR SEASON - they'll probably play close to 40 in the playoffs. The one thing that Pop might try is going with speed (mainly Green and Leonard). Quick athletes give LA problems. Neal probably shouldn't play much vs LA.

Which is why, should we face them, they will probably be considerably tired. And I agree with you, our athleticism and speed can be an advantage but lets not forget how the pace slows down in the playoffs.

[ElNono]

2. How can a Spurs fan scoff the Lakers in one breathe and then profess their fear of the Grizzlies in their next breath? Gasol + Bynum >>>>>>>>> Gasol + Randolph. Kobe + Barnes + Artest >>>>>>> Gay + Allen + Mayo. Sessions + Blake = Conley + nothing. It doesn't even make sense. The Lakers are like an upgraded version of the Grizzlies.

I'm going to disagree here, and before somebody pulls the "winning streak" overconfidence card (ahem), let me tell you this is after seeing both the Spurs and Lakers additions, and mostly how they've been playing all season long.

At this stage, either Gasol is pretty much the same problem. Actually, Pau just hasn't played as well this season, thus the trade rumors.

Bynum is clearly the Laker's best player, but they don't go to him nearly as much as you would think. The reason? He's still a fairly mediocre passer off double-triple teams. He is completely superior to ZBo on both size and strength, but he really isn't as skilled. ZBo has both that mid-range money jumper (which he was draining non-stop last night against Bynum/Pau) and he's a much better passer. So, Bynum definitely has the ability to dominate much more than ZBo, but as far as actually guarding and throwing a double-team their way, I'm not sure ZBo is the easier-to-guard guy. You also would need to add that Drew sometimes gets lazy. Take last night, 4 rebounds in 30+ mins.

The second problem for LA this season is the poor spacing they provide. A lot of teams pack the paint to double-triple Bynum, and largely it pays off. MWP is shooting 26% from downtown for the season (Memphis didn't bother to guard him in the perimeter last night). Kobe? 29% from downtown. Sessions just isn't taking many 3s, instead prefers to drive. Now, Memphis last season wasn't much better (I'm talking Conley, Battier who is now gone and OJ Mayo). But defensively there's just no comparison. Allen is way, way better one on one defender than MWP (MWP is still good roughing up players, but he's terrible running through screen). And Battier was way, way better than Kobe defensively. We're talking large margin here. Kobe these days likes to roam. He will literally leave his guy alone in a corner at the start of the possesion and go try to get a block or steal inside.

The third problem is their bench. As in, they have basically Barnes, who is middle of the road. Blake, Murphy, McRoberts. You can find instances just in the last month where one of the 3 finished with zero points, and the other two didn't even get to double-digits. Memphis just had a much better bench, especially when they had Battier. Their defensive intensity never dwindled.

The fourth problem is their coach. Mike Brown will literally enable Kobe to chuck his way through a game without even looking for his bigs, even though they might be shooting 60%+. The benching last night was an odd development, but since they have no bench, Kobe has to play. They just don't have enough to make up for even his poor shooting.

Their home record is also pretty deceiving. They've won a lot at home, but if you actually watch the games, there are very rarely any blowouts. Every team has a shot at Staples. Outside of Charlotte and Utah very early in the season most games have been within a 10 point margin. And they're a sub .500 team on the road. 10-15 this season.

All in all, I think this Lakers team is actually worse than last season. I think Memphis is also worse. I don't think they'll be a cakewalk or anything, but I think from a matchup perspective, both OKC and Dallas are more difficult foes, despite what the regular season record against us might indicate.

[rmt]

Which is why, should we face them, they will probably be considerably tired. And I agree with you, our athleticism and speed can be an advantage but lets not forget how the pace slows down in the playoffs.

Tired? Bynum's only 24. Lakers' stars are used to playing big minutes. TD averaging only 28 mins. Mark my words, he'll start the playoffs very well and fade as they go on and games are every other day and he has to play 34+ mins/game. Splitter - don't know if Pop thinks he's fragile or something. C'mon a 27 year old can play much more than 20 mins. - what astounds me is that no matter how well Splitter plays (obscene 11-13 or 7-9), Pop plays him so few minutes. And Diaw, Bonner and Blair are going to get abused by Gasol/Bynum.

Pace - even more reason for LA's half court, post offense to be a big mismatch. And Parker ain't scoring vs those 2 big giants. Biggest hope is for the 3pt shooting to be clicking and Green and Leonard to run past Artest and Kobe.

[Latarian Milton]

OKC just a paper tiger tbh s always melt down when exposed to more experienced opponents, griz upset em spurs last year but it was a fluke the spurs can beat em any day of the week tbh

[Mugen]

2. How can a Spurs fan scoff the Lakers in one breathe and then profess their fear of the Grizzlies in their next breath? Gasol + Bynum >>>>>>>>> Gasol + Randolph. Kobe + Barnes + Artest >>>>>>> Gay + Allen + Mayo. Sessions + Blake = Conley + nothing. It doesn't even make sense. The Lakers are like an upgraded version of the Grizzlies.

-Blake & "nothing" have been pretty neck and neck all year and I'd probably take Pargo/washed up Arenas over Blake at this point. Sessions has played well but i'd still take Conley over him.

-KB/Artest/Barnes are better defensively but the Spurs would have a much tougher time defending Gay and chasing Mayo around screens then contesting Kobe 20 footers and basically daring Artest to shoot.

i agree with the Lakers still being our toughest matchup but i think you're underrating how terrible their supporting players are outside of their Big 3 and just how much better of a coach Pop is than Mike Brown.

[benefactor]

ElNono...with the fake Lakers goods.

[angelbelow]

This is completely true, especially recently. People acting like the Lakers don't have anything beyond the big 3 need to wake up - that doesn't matter when your big 3 is ridiculously good on both ends and can play 42 minutes a game without dying like the Spurs big 3.

There's a reason the Heat went to a final with beyond the big 3 - Top tier talent at positions importance is critical.

That isn't to say SA can't beat LA, but do you trust Pop not to play Blair or Bonner really at all? Do the three balls fall against a tough defense? People saying they aren't scared of LA are lying to themselves. There is a reason why even with LA's recent struggles they are the third seed.

For me, I felt this way about the Lakers all season and have continued to be surprised at their struggles. They have the most versatile and deadly frontcourt and come playoff time, I would rather avoid tackle.

I would prefer to avoid the Mavericks as well but I would be confident if we matched up against them 2nd round. Not having Chandler is a big plus and Nowitski's admitted to having motivation issues. Still, Dirk is deadly and would assume that he gets his despite our recent successes against him.

[pgardn]

I just think about having all these players feeling well and moving well.

1. Ginobili - he still does not have his explosion, shot not confident, a step slow on D

2. Parker- if he cannot penetrate we lose a huge part of our offense. He was definitely faster last night against the sixers than against the Hornets

3. Duncan- the only guy that truly guards the rim on this team. Our only reliable inside scorer.

4. Splitter - absolutely necessary against the bigger teams Mem. and LA

4. Leonard- His knack for grabbing lose balls and scoring, as well as getting his hands on everything. He has obviously stayed the healthiest and must continue

5. Neal - we need his multifaceted ways of scoring when Parker and Gino go dead.

6. Green and or Jackson. We need the longer D and at ude on the perimeter.

7. Blair- I like having the big body to pick up junk baskets.

Past this we dont have to be at full strength. Diaw... I just dont know.

Thats 8 or 9 for the playoffs.

Would like to see Memphis meet the Lakers. OKC meet Dallas. Of course this might be next to impossible, but it my take a lot out of these teams which i see as our toughest.

Biggest worry right now: Ginobili... its just not back.

[reckless05]

1) Lakers- the Twin towers and Sessions is fast enough to defend parker and Kobe always enjoys playing with the Spurs.
2) OKC - Durant. I hope Leonard or Jackson can at least contain him

im not scared of Memphis, i wish they have memphis in the first round. It will be the other way around this time. But I hope everybody i will be healthy when the time comes.

[therealtruth]

Tired? Bynum's only 24. Lakers' stars are used to playing big minutes. TD averaging only 28 mins. Mark my words, he'll start the playoffs very well and fade as they go on and games are every other day and he has to play 34+ mins/game. Splitter - don't know if Pop thinks he's fragile or something. C'mon a 27 year old can play much more than 20 mins. - what astounds me is that no matter how well Splitter plays (obscene 11-13 or 7-9), Pop plays him so few minutes. And Diaw, Bonner and Blair are going to get abused by Gasol/Bynum.

Pace - even more reason for LA's half court, post offense to be a big mismatch. And Parker ain't scoring vs those 2 big giants. Biggest hope is for the 3pt shooting to be clicking and Green and Leonard to run past Artest and Kobe.

I've been waiting to see the benefit of playing less minutes in the regular season. Maybe this is the year it happens.

[100%duncan]

I would like it like this:
1st round-Utah
2nd round- Mavs(with okc and lal beating each other up)
3rd round- OKC, just like last year, OKC will crumble under pressure
Finals- Nobody beats the SPURS in an NBA final

[HarlemHeat37]

1. Health..Spurs have been hit with injuries, all year, and injuries to Ginobili, Duncan or Parker are always realistic possibilities in the playoffs, which would be crippling..

2. Pop's rotations..particularly in the frontcourt..it'll dictate the Spurs success IMO..

3. OKC..Spurs have matched up well against them, but don't underestimate the impact the refs could have for the most protected team in the league..

4. Lakers..Bynum and Gasol are a scary matchup, as most people have already pointed out..

5. Grizzlies..same reasons as last year..

[MmP]

-Still have a long way to see how new guys react to playoffs pressure: Leonard, Green, and full-fledge Splitter.

-Diaw's evolution with team

-SJax finding rythm

-I don't overlook the Laker, ever. Until I see them going back home I'll never underestimate them, they've beaten us badly.