Reply With Quote
Dumb
Dumb
En led to his opinion, but I fail to see his logic.
Are you sure that's not because the 76ers have less compe ion to get through in the East? I mean, they'd have to pull an upset or two but beyond Chicago/Miami there aren't a lot of top tier playoff teams over there. Things are different out West.
Last edited by TheSkeptic; 03-28-2012 at 04:17 PM.
It's not even his opinion. It's all computer based.
The problem with his formulas is that they fail to compensate for all the "rest nights" by the Spurs' best players.
Alls I know is I played the NBA playoff predictor yesterday like 10 times, and got Spurs champions more than any other team.
http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/predictions
There's a reason he's called LOLinger.
Philly is playing in the East. It's a lot harder to survive the first and second rounds in the West. That alone makes it more likely for them to get to the Finals. If you don't get to the Finals, you can't win it all. I'm not surprised that Hollinger would come up with those numbers. It's Hollinger.
I can see why. The Sixers are ranked number 1 in a few defensive categories. They're also very effective at scoring the ball and have good depth to their roster.
I don't think they'll make it out of the east but if hes just basing his prediction on numbers then its easy to see why.
Let's hope it's the Spurs and the Sixers in the finals and then we'll see who has the best chance to win.
If that Orlando magic team could make it to the finals a few years back, I can believe anything
Bear in mind, the 30 point forfeit to Portland (further magnified by the fact that Portland had a near .550 winning percentage at the time) really hurt our average scoring margin.
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings
We're at +4.85 for the season right now. Had we won that game by, say, 10 (which isn't totally unreasonable if we had been at full strength and were desperately trying to win that game alone), our overall margin would be nearly a full point higher (~+5.85).
The (arbitrary) mathematical model doesn't make such distinctions. It doesn't take injuries into account. It doesn't recognize "forfeits" or anything of the sort. As far as the model is concerned, our team at "full strength" was trounced by Portland by 30.
Like everyone's said, it's based on numbers. Philly hasn't been impressive since the end of February/early March, but the rate at which they were dominating the teams they played in the beginning of the season is still boosting their stats. If the trend continues as it is now they'll drop to a lower chance than the Spurs (provided the Spurs don't suddenly start sucking). There's also that the compe ion in the East is outside of Miami and Chicago, while the West seeds 1-8 all have a fair chance.
Don't see it happening, but a Sixers-Spurs Finals matchup would be awesome to see, from a basketball perspective.
But crushing Lebron's dreams again would be ideal.
More tears for fears. The more close the Spurs get the more they are going to cry for fear of the Spurs winning it all.
according to that, new york has better odds of winning it all than the reigning champs
What he said.
It's just the Trollinger formula. The whole point of it is precisely to take opinion/subjectivity out of it. I find it flawed, however, that the Sixers have the 4th highest probability to win it all when the top two teams, at about twice as high a probability to win compared to Sixers, are in the same conference. That alone should be weighed in and bring down their chances.
The Sixers have a better chance of taking down the Heat, Bulls, AND the West champ than the Spurs do of beating one of LAL/DAL/MEM, then OKC, and then the East champ? Both Miami and Chicago are better than the Thunder according to this model, so having to beat 1 of CHI/MIA should be easier than having to beat both.
I guess that early season scoring margin matters that much to LOLlinger.
I think the whole thing is a flawed idea. I see where it's coming from though. The Spurs have a bigger chance of making it to the Finals, because their biggest threat is OKC. Philadelphia has less of a chance to make it, because there's Miami AND Chicago. But if they do make it there, they've got less top teams to worry about. But I still think all 8 of the teams in the West projected to make the playoffs can beat the 76ers.
He's Captain Hindsight, because his stats only mean anything at the end of the season.
W/L record and SOS mean a lot, but point diff means nothing when you consider how skewed it can be when teams like the Spurs play the bench when up big or down big in the 4th. Other teams don't, they play their starters until 2 minutes left in the game so they can stat pad.
More people here know the score than Hollinger, I doubt he's watched a game in years.
Half the teams in the West who won't make the playoffs can beat the 76ers.
The East as a whole is weaker than the West. Hollinger puts too much emphasis on margin of victory. Sacramento, sitting 14th in the west would be competing for the 8th seed in the east. Teams on the top of the eastern conference are getting fat off the Charlotte's, Washington's, Toronro's and New Jersey's of the world. Put either Chicago or Miami in the west and their record and margin of victory wouldn't nearly be as impressive.
That's why you don't forfeit.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
