Can the Spurs really beat OKC in the playoffs?

[jag]

One thing I genuinely like about Gay is that he sometimes keeps Randolph and Gasol from getting in a good rhythm. I'd rather Gay get hot and do his thing, or him do his chucking thing, than Gasol and Randolph get their two-man hi-lo post game going.

[midnightpulp]

Because the average Spur fan (Laker fan too) are dumb ...

I think we match up much better with Los Angeles than OKC. I do fear the Lakers simply out of respect. The Lakers could lose 10 straight and look like a lottery team, but you can always count on them playing the Spurs tough as nails. In a vacuum, the Spurs should beat the Lakers in a 7 game series. Lakers fans and Spurs thinking LA is the favorite still think this is 2009. I expect Bynum to be huge, but Gasol and Kobe these days are wildcards. I expect Duncan and Gasol to play to a draw. Parker will outplay Sessions. Leonard will outplay Artest. And the Spurs bench will slaughter their Lakers counterpart.

[Killakobe81]

Correct. And their "fans" are as bad, too. I recall the last Mavs game vs. OKC. The Thunder went to the line 33 times and the Mavs just 10, but some OKC fans were still complaining after the game the refs didn't call every "foul" the Mavs "committed". Pure crap. Based on the opinion of OKC fans it seems that every game in which the Thunder don't get +30 FTA and the other team gets much less is rigged...

Honestly, if the Spurs face OKC in the playoffs, I'll keep my fingers crossed for the Spurs. I don't like them, but I hate OKC even more. There is no other team protected by the refs as much as OKC (not even Miami).

Free Throw Attempts

1. Dwight Howard-ORL 551
2. Kevin Love-MIN 421
3. Kobe Bryant-LAL 416
4. LeBron James-MIA 387
5. Blake Griffin-LAC 384
6. Kevin Durant-OKC 374
7. John Wall-WAS 318
8. Russell Westbrook-OKC 310
9. James Harden-OKC 305
10. DeMarcus Cousins-SAC 292

Can't recall the last time 3 players from the same team being in the Top 10 of FTA.

I know he plays starter minutes, but jeez. IF harden is getting THAT many FT's ...you are screwed

[jestersmash]

If Kobe got injured Spurs would win the series. If Kobe started passing we would probably lose.

Wait, did you say that right?

If Kobe was injured, there's a good chance that Spurs would lose to the Lakers. They'd be forced to play more inside-out, and Bynum would get at least twice the touches that he currently gets (someone of his caliber averaging 12 FGA per game is absolutely ludicrous).

Kobe to me right now is a cancer to L.A.'s attempt to play unselfish, team basketball and it greatly works to our favor.

[Stalin]

I understand the Spurs recent ownage of the Thunder which brought the series to 1-1, that was an impressive win and it really brought the Thunder down to earth, but I need to see more proof.


I'm watching this decent Chicago team and how OKC are just pummeling them with no regards. Sure, Rose is absent but the Bulls have been pretty good without him.


OKC has beat all the contenders with ease. Miami, Lakers, Chicago, Dallas and Miami.


They are seriosuly so good, they almost have no weakness. Durant, Westbrook and Harden can torch any perimeter defense. Ibaka, Collison are such great hustle defensive players. Perkins is playing better recently too. Scott Brooks has the teams respect and I like the discipline he instills in these guys. And just in case they need another big time clutch shooter, Fisher is an option, though he's really not needed since Durant and Westbrook are lethal in late game situations.



And, oh, they look like they will have HCA throughout the playoffs and they get tons of calls at home.




People say the West are wide open, but I don;t know if thats true. It looks like the Thunder and then the rest of the compe ion. Can San Anotnio really beat the Thunder which is a deadlier version of Memphis Grizzlies?

brah its 2-1 not 1-1

you're clearly using a bulls team without rose to support you claim that thunder are teh best in the west, tbh

grizz advantage was their interior scoring last year, thunder are a jumpshooting team, scrah


Dallas=contender
fluke championship
TOSB Dirk
worst defending champs in history of the nba
who needs chandler?

[jestersmash]

I know he plays starter minutes, but jeez. IF harden is getting THAT many FT's ...you are screwed

And he's only 22 years old. OKC to me is poised to become the dynasty of this decade.

[Proxy]

Let me add that some Spurfan think we have a favorable matchup, more favorable than against the Lakeshow, and I disagree...

I would say that mostly has to do with the bad taste from the MEM series, and leading OKC by 20+ points in both of SAS' victories this year. I'm hesitant on which I'd rather the Spurs see... losing Odom does make a big difference, and they still don't have a bench, but Bynum and Pau don't excite me. I'd put my money on Kawhi and Jack slowing Durant down over hoping for a fantasy Timmy/Tiago combo that Pop never plays going against LA's bigs.

[Killakobe81]

I think we match up much better with Los Angeles than OKC. I do fear the Lakers simply out of respect. The Lakers could lose 10 straight and look like a lottery team, but you can always count on them playing the Spurs tough as nails. In a vacuum, the Spurs should beat the Lakers in a 7 game series. Lakers fans and Spurs thinking LA is the favorite still think this is 2009. I expect Bynum to be huge, but Gasol and Kobe these days are wildcards. I expect Duncan and Gasol to play to a draw. Parker will outplay Sessions. Leonard will outplay Artest. And the Spurs bench will slaughter their Lakers counterpart.

Yep though Bynum is better than 2009-2010 ... Lakers are worse.
Kobe and Pau are older and on the decline.
Our bench is ty.
Artest good bit not as good defensively. But is an abortion on offense.
And we went from Phil who owned Pop, to the black sheep of Pop's coaching family tree ...

For us to beat the Spurs, Kobe an dPau would both need to go off Artest would have to not brick every open jumper.

[endrity]

Correct. And their "fans" are as bad, too. I recall the last Mavs game vs. OKC. The Thunder went to the line 33 times and the Mavs just 10, but some OKC fans were still complaining after the game the refs didn't call every "foul" the Mavs "committed". Pure crap. Based on the opinion of OKC fans it seems that every game in which the Thunder don't get +30 FTA and the other team gets much less is rigged...

Honestly, if the Spurs face OKC in the playoffs, I'll keep my fingers crossed for the Spurs. I don't like them, but I hate OKC even more. There is no other team protected by the refs as much as OKC (not even Miami).

Free Throw Attempts

1. Dwight Howard-ORL 551
2. Kevin Love-MIN 421
3. Kobe Bryant-LAL 416
4. LeBron James-MIA 387
5. Blake Griffin-LAC 384
6. Kevin Durant-OKC 374
7. John Wall-WAS 318
8. Russell Westbrook-OKC 310
9. James Harden-OKC 305
10. DeMarcus Cousins-SAC 292

Can't recall the last time 3 players from the same team being in the Top 10 of FTA.

wow, that's pretty revealing right there

[irishock]

Better question is can OKC beat any opponent in the playoffs not named Denver and Memphis. They'd even have trouble against LA and Dallas, because their PG is a chucker and they have an idiot coach.

[jag]

Wait, did you say that right?

If Kobe was injured, there's a good chance that Spurs would lose to the Lakers. They'd be forced to play more inside-out, and Bynum would get at least twice the touches that he currently gets (someone of his caliber averaging 12 FGA per game is absolutely ludicrous).

Kobe to me right now is a cancer to L.A.'s attempt to play unselfish, team basketball and it greatly works to our favor.

Yep. Not sure how Kobe shooting 20-40% with 3apg would do anything but help the Spurs' chances.

[Stalin]

The Bulls was not the barometer. I was actually impressed when they beat Miami and then beating the Lakers for the second time in Staples. The Lakers were really prepared for that game and they wanted to win that game (ask Giuseppe) but OKC came there and just embarassed them.

anyone has a chance at staples, tbh

[Killakobe81]

And he's only 22 years old. OKC to me is poised to become the dynasty of this decade.

No they won't. Because both Harden and Ibaka will command Huge raises and if they did win a le ... the agemst wil price them even higher. No way OKC will go to lux tax to keep their core. Perk, Rus and Durant all making big money already.

[jestersmash]

Yep though Bynum is better than 2009-2010 ... Lakers are worse.
Kobe and Pau are older and on the decline.
Our bench is ty.
Artest good bit not as good defensively. But is an abortion on offense.
And we went from Phil who owned Pop, to the black sheep of Pop's coaching family tree ...

For us to beat the Spurs, Kobe an dPau would both need to go off Artest would have to not brick every open jumper.

Kobe doesn't need to go off offensively (PPG-wise) for the Lakers to beat the Spurs. Kobe simply needs to accept his role as a 2nd option (tied with Pau) behind Bynum and the Lakers would dominate the Spurs. Duncan nor Splitter are capable of effectively shutting Bynum down, but mark my words if we were ever to meet in the playoffs, a typical game for Bynum would be 9-12, 4-6 FTs for 22 points while Kobe goes 11-25 or something and the Spurs end up winning by 6 or 7.

[Killakobe81]

Kobe doesn't need to go off offensively (PPG-wise) for the Lakers to beat the Spurs. Kobe simply needs to accept his role as a 2nd option (tied with Pau) behind Bynum and the Lakers would dominate the Spurs. Duncan nor Splitter are capable of effectively shutting Bynum down, but mark my words if we were ever to meet in the playoffs, a typical game for Bynum would be 9-12, 4-6 FTs for 22 points while Kobe goes 11-25 or something and the Spurs end up winning by 6 or 7.

I agree we need to play inside out, but Bynum is not a good enough passer to run our offens ethrough against better defensive teams. Not sure Spurs are exactly that but Pop is one of teh best coaches in the game. IF we fed bynum constant my guess is Pop would send either Manu or Lenard to double Bynum and they would make scoring tough. We dont shoot well enough from 3 to make you guys pay.

Kobe will be fine in the playoffs. My only concern which Lngrr called early on is the fact Brown has run him and Pau in to the ground ...

[Killakobe81]

And it's a falsehood to say we dont need Kobe to score to beat a better playoff team. where are we gonna get scoring from? Pau can gets us 20 and if featured maybe Bynum gets us 30. I think Sessions can get us 12 but who else is gonna score consistently? Artest? Blake? Mcroberts?
It's so easy to say Kobe shouldnt shoot but who else is gonna shoot? I agree Kobe shoots too much but we NEED his scoring to say otherwise means you must not watch a lot of Laker games ...

[Stalin]

okc just beat a bulls team without rose that only shot 33% from the field by 14, yeah thats a real pummeling, spurfan better curl up in the fetal position after such a dominating performance by Acne and Co.

[Killakobe81]

Oh and Lakers are NOT contenders ...

[jestersmash]

I agree we need to play inside out, but Bynum is not a good enough passer to run our offens ethrough against better defensive teams. Not sure Spurs are exactly that but Pop is one of teh best coaches in the game. IF we fed bynum constant my guess is Pop would send either Manu or Lenard to double Bynum and they would make scoring tough. We dont shoot well enough from 3 to make you guys pay.

Kobe will be fine in the playoffs. My only concern which Lngrr called early on is the fact Brown has run him and Pau in to the ground ...

We're not. Defensively we're slightly better than average. Same with OKC. Same with L.A.

OKC ranks 1st in offense, 12th in defense
Spurs rank 3rd in offense, 13th in defense
L.A. ranks 12th in offense, 10th in defense

These are all pace-adjusted, and they're pretty consistent with what I've seen from all 3 teams. The Lakers offense looks downright anemic at times.

If you guys (from now until the end of the season) muster up a couple of consistent 3 point shooters (32-35% when they're open/semi-open would be sufficient) and you guys started playing more inside out with Bynum as the focal piece (I agree that Bynum isn't that good of a passer yet, but this is something he has 15 or 16 games to work on if Lakers so choose to do so), you guys would have a great chance to go deep into the playoffs.

Would you guys win it all if you played more inside out, team-oriented "open man gets the shot period Spurs-like" basketball? Probably not, but you'd have a better chance of at least making it to the WCF and who knows, you could always have a game or two where luck is on your side.

The thing is, I think Kobe kind of realizes this. Kobe to me strikes me as the kind of person that (at this point in his career) is thinking "Right now we really don't have a shot at a ring with me as the 1st option. If I played more of a facilitator role, we'd have a better chance of going deeper into the playoffs but we still wouldn't be the favorites. Thus, I'm just going to get my numbers and chase records at this point in my career."

In other words, as far as list of priorities go, Kobe's thought process is -

1) Have solid chance to win championship as 1st option (with high PPG)
2) Chase records as 1st option
3) Have marginal chance to win championship as 2nd option
4) Have solid chance to go deep into playoffs as 2nd option

It's as though in Kobe's mind, he's thinking "1 is totally unlikely," and as far as priorities go, he strikes me as the person who would rather chase M.J.'s scoring record than give his entire team a 5-10% better chance of winning a ring or going deep in the playoffs.

If Kobe willingly took more of a facilitator role as the 2nd option and Lakers ended up losing in the WCF, say, I feel like Kobe would be thinking "god damnit I probably could've averaged 5 or 10 more PPG and I'd be closer to M.J.'s record right now." It sounds ridiculous to the point of trolling, but that's honestly how non-Laker fans perceive Kobe at this point.

Of course, if he can win a ring this year, that'd be wonderful, but that's just gravy for him at this point.

[DAF86]

First: the season series is 2-1 for the Spurs not 1-1.
Second: Last season a lesser Spurs team swept the series against this same OKC roster 3-0.

It's obvious there's a matchup problem there for OKC. What I can think of of the top of my head:

-OKC depends a lot on FTs, the Spurs are the team that foul the least.

-We have a matchup advantage with the bigs (no, I'm not saying Bonner > Ibaka. Let me explain). Brooks has to select between putting Ibaka on Duncan or the stretch 4 (Bonner/Diaw/Jackson/Leonard). He's too small to guard Duncan and if he's in the perimiter guarding the other "big" he can't be as big a threat as he usually is challenging shots inside.

-Jackson and Leonard seem like very good Durant defenders.

-OKC's young players aren't particulary good at defending the pick and roll/motion/spacing offense the Spurs run.

I would feel very confident facing OKC. Lakers and Mavs are still the team that I most fear in the West.

[jestersmash]

And it's a falsehood to say we dont need Kobe to score to beat a better playoff team. where are we gonna get scoring from? Pau can gets us 20 and if featured maybe Bynum gets us 30. I think Sessions can get us 12 but who else is gonna score consistently? Artest? Blake? Mcroberts?
It's so easy to say Kobe shouldnt shoot but who else is gonna shoot? I agree Kobe shoots too much but we NEED his scoring to say otherwise means you must not watch a lot of Laker games ...

I think your role players' scoring averages would each go up by a couple of PPG if Kobe played the "right way" consistently for 48 minutes.

Steve Blake may objectively be one of the worst (overall) players in the NBA, but he's still an NBA player. You give an NBA player a wide open 3 point off good penetration/passing, more often than not he'll shoot at minimum around 28-30%.

If you don't buy this, take Stephen Jackson as an interesting test case. SJax was averaging 27.8% from 3 point land with the Bucks. Now that he's in the Spurs system, he's getting wide open 3 point looks and is now averaging the 3rd highest 3P% for his career (@ 34.8). He also has the highest FG% of his career with the Spurs to date (@ 47.2%).

He was 35.7% from the field overall with the Bucks, and he's 41.6% from the field overall for his career. Why the sudden jump in FG% and 3P%? Because the Spurs system consistently gets him wide open or semi-open looks. I think maybe once per game Pop will call an iso for Jackson and that'll be his toughest shot attempt of the night (but even on iso's he can score at a fairly good clip). Other than that, he stays within the system and follows the Spurs' philosophy of "open man gets the shot" and "pass up 'good' looks for 'great' looks, regardless of who you're passing to" to a T.

Ginobili would rather give up a "good" look on a hard drive to the rim to give, say, Matt Bonner a "great" wide open look from 3 point land. It's precisely this kind of philosophy that has the Spurs sitting 3rd in offense in the league right now. I think the Lakers could easily follow suit if Kobe was willing to buy into that kind of system.

[Killakobe81]

We're not. Defensively we're slightly better than average. Same with OKC. Same with L.A.

OKC ranks 1st in offense, 12th in defense
Spurs rank 3rd in offense, 13th in defense
L.A. ranks 12th in offense, 10th in defense

These are all pace-adjusted, and they're pretty consistent with what I've seen from all 3 teams. The Lakers offense looks downright anemic at times.

If you guys (from now until the end of the season) muster up a couple of consistent 3 point shooters (32-35% when they're open/semi-open would be sufficient) and you guys started playing more inside out with Bynum as the focal piece (I agree that Bynum isn't that good of a passer yet, but this is something he has 15 or 16 games to work on if Lakers so choose to do so), you guys would have a great chance to go deep into the playoffs.

Would you guys win it all if you played more inside out, team-oriented "open man gets the shot period Spurs-like" basketball? Probably not, but you'd have a better chance of at least making it to the WCF and who knows, you could always have a game or two where luck is on your side.

The thing is, I think Kobe kind of realizes this. Kobe to me strikes me as the kind of person that (at this point in his career) is thinking "Right now we really don't have a shot at a ring with me as the 1st option. If I played more of a facilitator role, we'd have a better chance of going deeper into the playoffs but we still wouldn't be the favorites. Thus, I'm just going to get my numbers and chase records at this point in my career."

In other words, as far as list of priorities go, Kobe's thought process is -

1) Have solid chance to win championship as 1st option (with high PPG)
2) Chase records as 1st option
3) Have marginal chance to win championship as 2nd option
4) Have solid chance to go deep into playoffs as 2nd option

It's as though in Kobe's mind, he's thinking "1 is totally unlikely," and as far as priorities go, he strikes me as the person who would rather chase M.J.'s scoring record than give his entire team a 5-10% better chance of winning a ring or going deep in the playoffs.

If Kobe willingly took more of a facilitator role as the 2nd option and Lakers ended up losing in the WCF, say, I feel like Kobe would be thinking "god damnit I probably could've averaged 5 or 10 more PPG and I'd be closer to M.J.'s record right now." It sounds ridiculous to the point of trolling, but that's honestly how non-Laker fans perceive Kobe at this point.

Of course, if he can win a ring this year, that'd be wonderful, but that's just gravy for him at this point.

Not a bad post ...but I could do without the psycho-analysis bull . I doubt you have a degree in psych ..and even if you did ... you do not know Kobe and neither do I.
Maybe you are righ,t but when it comes to ball I just hate all of the specualtive mind state analysis. That being said you bring some great points ... even though I agree about playing inside out, you guys do have better ball movement, passers and coaching. It doesnt change the fact that the Spurs have better bench talent as well. Even with Pop as coach it wouldnt fix Artest's broken jumper or instill confidence in Murphy of confidence in Blake.

I ahve accepted the team is not a contender. I just dont get why others wont admit on here and on LG.

[DAF86]

Not a bad post ...but I could do without the psycho-analysis bull . I doubt you have a degree in psych ..and even if you did ... you do not know Kobe and neither do I.
Maybe you are righ,t but when it comes to ball I just hate all of the specualtive mind state analysis. That being said you bring some great points ... even though I agree about playing inside out, you guys do have better ball movement, passers and coaching. It doesnt change the fact that the Spurs have better bench talent as well. Even with Pop as coach it wouldnt fix Artest's broken jumper or instill confidence in Murphy of confidence in Blake.

I ahve accepted the team is not a contender. I just dont get why others wont admit on here and on LG.

Because they are contenders. They're 3rd in the West and have a matchup advantage over number 2. So there's a big chance they make the WCF. If a WCFinalist isn't contender I don't know what is.

[DPG21920]

Lakers are certainly contenders. If you have a shot at making the conference finals, you are a contender. LA clearly has a shot to make to the WCF.

Spurs can beat OKC, but they would not be favorites at all in the series and it would take mistake free ball to beat them in a 7 game series. Yes, the Spurs match up better in a classical sense against OKC rather than LA/MEM, but OKC presents a lot of tough issues for the Spurs and OKC's defense is much more solid when focused than the Spurs.

That's what people get caught up in - just because you can pick and say team x is better than team y, doesn't mean the gaps are large. In the West, there is very little gap considering strengths and weaknesses in the top 4-5 teams.

[jag]

Not a bad post ...but I could do without the psycho-analysis bull . I doubt you have a degree in psych ..and even if you did ... you do not know Kobe and neither do.

It doesn't take a silly/worthless degree is psychology to be able to pick up on what Kobe is doing right now. There's a reason he leads the league in ppg and it isn't because he's the best scorer in the league and it also isn't because he needs to lead his team in scoring.

Unless you think Kobe is stupid (I certainly don't) then you have to believe he knows exactly what everyone else with eyes and a TV knows; he's been holding that team back and has stunted the growth of Bynum while also messing with team chemistry to chase stats. The fact that he keeps doing so speaks volumes to what he's really interested in.