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We definitely won't see a 5 big man rotation in the playoffs. We'll see 3.5 or 4.
That's why Diaw didn't play against Indiana and Bonner didn't play against the Kings. Look for one of the five bigs to sit each game.
At least for myself, this 5 days rest for Diaw is what has me most perplexed. Thanks timvp for the analysis of regular season Matt vs. playoff Matt. If the only reason Diaw was brought on board was injury insurance, then his talents will have been wasted. I'm just not so sure we'll be seeing a 5 man big rotation in the playoffs though.
16 minutes per guys not named Tim is possible, I imagine, give or take a few minutes. Is there any precedent to anything like that. Again seeing Tiago, or Diaw, play many less minutes than B&B is just not promising.
We definitely won't see a 5 big man rotation in the playoffs. We'll see 3.5 or 4.
That's why Diaw didn't play against Indiana and Bonner didn't play against the Kings. Look for one of the five bigs to sit each game.
To me the logical thing to do would be to cut Bonner/Blair out of the rotation altogether. I feel like there's enough 3 point shooting that we don't really need Bonner out there and Tiago/Diaw will likely produce better than Blair. If these trends continue, then this issue right here will force the Spurs out of the playoffs prematurely. There's not a doubt in my mind.
I think he's looking for an excuse/right time to do it. It's obvious he's not a big Blair fan and other than being too passive, Diaw is the type of PF he likes next to Duncan. But like you said, the team is on a tear, so making that move now wouldn't make much sense, particularly because it's not like there's a massive gap between the two players. He also probably doesn't want to risk mentally losing Blair, not with 16 games in 23 days upcoming. But the instant they struggle for more than a couple of games, unless Blair is really playing well, I think a switch it coming. It's possible that switch may not come until their backs are up against the wall in the playoffs though. But at some point, it's coming.
I get this line of reasoning, but I think that making the switch too late will be a problem for the guy who's getting Blair's spot. I'd be a lot more comfortable making the change before facing the brink of elimination so that guys can get used to playing together. Visions of last year and all.
Pop's going to stick with Bonner/Blair. They have plenty of corporate knowledge, are proven playoff performers, and play great defense unlike Splitter or Diaw.
LJ...capping the thread...screwing down tight.
I agree, but knowing how Pop operates, I wouldn't be shocked if he waited until that point. That's exactly what he did last season, when it came to Splitter.
If he had his druthers, the ideal scenario would probably see Blair going down for about 3 games (not too many, because they need all hands on deck for this 16-in-23 nonsense upcoming) and Diaw stepping in and playing extremely well. Then that gives him an excuse to go with him over Blair going forward. Even though he'd have technically still made the switch, it could be passed off as "we're just continuing to go with what's been working; we've done the same thing with Green continuing to start (even though that's strictly to keep Ginobili's minutes down)" and not as an indictment of Blair's play.
as Rasho made way for Nazr in 2005..
Nearly everyone on the team, with the exception of Blair and Ginobili, did more harm than good in that series. That's the whole point of the plus/minus stats. Neither Bonner nor Splitter lost that series, Tim and Tony, and to a lesser extent Dice, RJ and Hill did. If you think switching Bonner and Splitter's minutes in that series would've made a difference, there's really nothing in the numbers to support your argument. Whatever positive last year's Splitter would've added to the defense, he would've taken away on the other end.
THEN WHAT THE IS YOUR POINT? Invent a time machine, learn hypnosis and force Pop to play Tiago more last year. Brilliant.
Outside of keeping Manu out of that Phoenix game, I'm not sure what they could've done differently. Randolph and Conley played out of their minds and Tim and Tony did not meet the challenge. It really is that simple. Tim had one good first half in Game 1 and then offered relatively nothing.
I've said the same thing a million times, and nobody can seem to understand: Neither Bonner nor Splitter had much to do with the outcome of that series. Tim and Tony had to play better and they didn't. Their stars outplayed our stars.
The stat said the 7th most important player on the team played relatively well, but since we lost, it's a dumb stat and evidence the player sucks. Got it.
Here's something for you to wrap your brain around... the fact that Bonner led the team in w/s48 is proof that the stars majorly underachieved. Bonner ISN'T SUPPOSED TO LEAD THE TEAM in w/s48. If everything goes according to plan, he SHOULD BE 5th or 6th. You are in effect blaming him for doing better than other players.
I never said anything about who I think is better or worse for 2012. We're talking about last year's series. Yes, I think Splitter is a better defender than Bonner, but not by as much of a margin as most of ST does, I'm sure.
As far as offense goes, it's pretty close. True shooting wise, they're both pretty close to the same, super efficient. Splitter obviously helps by getting to the line more and he's a much more effective rebounder and even a slightly better passer.
However, ultimately what makes him and Bonner a wash is the fact that Splitter is a turnover machine. He turns the ball over more than 4x as often as Bonner does, so that negates most of his other advantages over Bonner.
What I do know is that even in 2012 the Spurs score more points and allow less with Bonner on the floor than Splitter, though they're both been assets at both ends.
Again, if you are looking for the Spurs to improve, benching Bonner isn't the answer. Your best bet is to bench Blair.
I don't necessarily disagree with anything you wrote.
Here are my two questions:
1) Compared to the relative disasters of 2009 and 2010, wouldn't you agree that his play in 2011 was, all things considered, a step in the right direction for Bonner considering how poorly he played in those playoffs?
2) I've never suggested that Bonner played well in the 2011 playoffs or that I would like him to see clutch-time minutes in the 2012 playoffs. I just want to know, in your opinion, how much blame Bonner deserves for losing last year's series.
My contention, which I think the numbers show clearly, is that the lion's share of the blame goes, in order, to 1) Tony 2) Tim 3) Dice 4) RJ 5) Hill.
Agree or disagree?
Blair needs to take one for the team and come up with some injury.
Seriously if Pop isn't willing to close with TD and Splitter he has to at least consider Tiago for defense since he is the best pick and roll defender bigman. He has the speed to switch on the smaller player and still bother their shot. I still remember Grant Hill exposing TD's lack of mobility in the pick and roll in during the Suns' sweep in '10.
Last edited by therealtruth; 04-02-2012 at 07:35 PM.
That ain't happening.
That ain't happening.
I've tried to stay out of this but I think you're wrong.
First because a lot of Splitter's turnovers are offensive fouls on moving screens, passing in traffic, etc. That's stuff that gets fixed with playing time imo so no they're not a wash.
As for this whole "Spurs score more points with Bonner..."
I'll just leave these threads here:
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthre...nsive+thoughts
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthre...t=player+pairs
Timvp's stats match up a little bit better to what the rest of us are seeing and the stats he's using are fine imo.
And yes, benching Bonner in favour of a better player is probably going to help the team. Benching Blair in favour of Diaw or Tiago should be priority as well.
timvp's numbers are as of Mar. 7. The ones I used are as of Mar. 25, so take that for what it's worth. Really, if you want to use the player pairs data for your argument, as blasphemous as it sounds, it sure looks to me that the Spurs best big man combo is Splitter-Bonner together. Duncan slows down the offense to such an extent that his defensive advantages over the other two don't really make up for it (plus it's not like he plays the pick-and-roll nearly as well as those two).
Season to date:
Pts scored per 48:
w/Bonner: 104.20
w/Splitter: 103.32
Pts allowed per 48:
w/Bonner: 92.38
w/Splitter: 94.99
What's more interesting, at least to me, is their numbers as a duo. Splitter has played 63% of his minutes with Bonner while Bonner has played 52% of his minutes with Splitter.
As a duo:
Pts scored per 48: 106.87
Pts allowed per 48: 91.33
Splitter and Bonner have been a great pairing.
Conley didn't have do much in the series but take the open jumpers the Spurs were affording him because of being scared of Randolph/Gasol and pass the ball to Randolph/Gasol. I don't really consider that playing out of his mind.
Part of the reason Randolph was on fire is that Bonner/Dice couldn't force him to defend or draw fouls on him. The one guy who could, Splitter, didn't play much at power forward. Randolph saved all his energy for offense and we saw the results. Also having Bonner on him probably boosted his confidence alot.
Ok. So I assume these are the numbers that poster was using. Interesting.
On the points allowed front I can see how that would happen though because if Bonner's not playing with Splitter he's playing with Duncan and a couple of the other starters. He's a better defender than Blair according to DPPP so that particular number would make sense to me since Duncan's a better defender around the rim/helper than Tiago.
Yeah. They have been. I like Bonner fine during the regular season. He does what he's told and he plays a role that maximizes his strengths and he does it to perfection. Thing is, I care about the playoffs and I don't trust Bonner to perform when it matters.
I will admit that the staff did the right thing as far as squeezing more out of people like Blair and Bonner though.
Yeah, I saw that and Mel's numbers. My mistake although I still disagree with your overall point on Bonner and Splitter being a wash.
Because Bonner is fabulous during the regular season and he's been given a role that caters to his strengths (ridiculous btw).
He won't perform like this in the playoffs whereas Duncan has a history of playing well in the post-season. Ergo, we have to give our best bigs a try. Just use the Splitter/Parker pick and roll so that Duncan can spot up for the midrange J and use maybe Green and Leonard to spread the floor otherwise.
Pop will likely have to lean on that line-up when the Spurs run into trouble anyway so they might as well get familiar with each other. To me, at least, that pairing has been looking much better on both ends as of late.
If not for Neal's crazy 3-pointer, we would've lost 4-1. And if you really watched the series, 4-1 is even an understatement of how we got beat by the Grizzlies.
It's not like we lost 4-3 by a last shot, say like Pistons lost to us in 05. In that situation, two teams were basically playing at the same level, and it went down to some loose balls, lucky shots or even one offense rebound. Then you might be able to say that the support from some role players didn't meet expectations.
So I agree 100% that our stars were largely outplayed by their stars is the first, second, and third biggest reason we lost. Just stop bashing role players when stars didn't perform. It does no good to anybody and anything, including this coming playoffs.
Some follow-up:
So if you just want to blame some specific players to feel less worse about our humiliation from last year, go for it. But if you want to talk about what out chances are this year, focus and pray for the health and performance of our star players first and foremost.
thank you.
And if Shane Battier/Zach Randolph don't hit incredibly timely clutch 3s down the stretch and if Manu had played game 1, we may have won that game and the series could have been 2-0 SA to start.
I think you're vastly exaggerating the extent to which the Grizzlies beat us. Actually, scratch "I think." You are vastly exaggerating to the extent where I'm skeptical if you even watched the series.
Memphis won both games 1 and 3 by 3 points each. That's a play here or there. That's an extra shot made (for the spurs) and a single extra possession of good defense (4 or 5 point swing), and it could've been a Spurs win.
Last edited by jestersmash; 04-02-2012 at 08:35 PM.
Haha you respond to me without the context of your stupid bait usage on OV.
Your posts have insinuated that Bonner is>= than Splitter. And I disagree with that.
Even if the stats are close now, the main point is that Splitter is the higher potential player with the superior skill set.
For the most part we have agreed through out the thread. But your posts are inconsistent. Sometimes you rate Bonner correctly and other times you hold him too highly.
Lets clear things up a bit. If you're strictly arguing about the 2011 playoffs, then the entire team played poorly including Bonner. If you're talking about this season, you would rather play Bonner more then Splitter? That's what I'm getting from your posts, correct me if I'm wrong.
For the record, I would prefer the minutes allocation to go from Duncan getting the most, to Splitter, Diaw, Bonner and Blair getting the least.
I like Blair a lot but his weaknesses are clear and obvious. If our team was a low tier playoff team or worse, I would play Blair more because hes got some potential left. But as of right now, we can't afford to develop him by letting him make the same mistakes over and over.
Obviously this rings true. We win by our superstars and we die by our superstars. But its not as simple as "bashing role players."
First of all, the big 3 have all made their names by being winners and compe ors in the playoffs. A few bad seasons of inconsistent play isn't going to erase their playoff glory. Meanwhile, Bonner has struggled for at least the past 3 years of playoff basketball. This goes beyond "bashing" (but more like criticizing) role players but identifying a trend.
I do have some faith in Bonner this year. Our team is much deeper and filled with more weapons. The pressure isn't on him to be productive like last season. Also, Bonner isn't a one trick pony this time around. Hes playing nice defense and can catch some defenders off guard with his dribble drive. With that said, I wouldn't play him more then 18 minutes a game during the playoffs.
Last edited by angelbelow; 04-02-2012 at 08:33 PM.
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