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more players are hurt this season due to the schedule
Great write-up LJ!!! Props as always bro.Now I'll stall by reading the Cavs game thread and maybe watch some of the 1st game of the Cavs-Spurs Finals (I've watched all the other Finals 2 or 3 times except for that one). and maybe even play some San Andreas so I only refresh ST once before seeing your grades.
more players are hurt this season due to the schedule
when parker is playing with manu he is trying to make manu get ready for the playoffs
Other than health, the biggest question seems to be this: can Diaw play well enough to supplant Blair in the starting lineup? As you said, it might be all or nothing for Blair- starter, or end of the big rotation. (I guess the other alternative might be starter who gets 10 mpg.)
It's doubtful that Pop will consistently play all 5 bigs through the postseason. Duncan will obviously get a lot of minutes, Splitter is too good to be left out of the rotation, and until (unless) Bonner seriously regresses in the playoffs, he's played too well this season to justify taking him out of the mix.
That leaves Blair and Diaw to fight for the 4th spot, with the starting lineup being the best spot for either of them. As much as he has improved defensively, starting Bonner is still a nonstarter against teams with strong offensive bigmen. The idea of starting Splitter next to TD was thrown out by Pop long ago. It will be worth watching to see if Pop tests out Diaw with Duncan a lot throughout the games, and what happens to the starting lineup if he decides to give Blair a night off.
As a final note, small ball will also play a role in this. The other night, Pop closed out a game with a lineup of Parker/Ginobili/Jackson/Leonard/Duncan, which very well could be the crunch time lineup in the playoffs. In that case, the 96 big man minutes could be distributed like this:
Duncan: 35
Splitter: 19 (is 6 minutes of overlap with Duncan too much to expect per game?)
Bonner: 19
Blair/Diaw: 15
Small ball: 8
Great points.
While I do understand the logic behind the small ball crunch time lineup, I'd be lying if I said I was comfortable with it. Except against specific teams, I don't think Leonard or Jackson should be guarding the 4. Especially not in the playoffs (although Jax is fine on Dirk).
I like Bonner but he should be getting something within the range of 10 minutes unless he's hot.
Splitter should take about half of Bonner's excess minutes and play at least 25-30 minutes.
Diaw should take all of Blair's minutes and about half the small ball ones.
Maybe something like
Duncan: 36
Splitter: 25
Diaw: 19
Bonner: 10 (or less if the usual fall-off happens)
With the remaining minutes given to either small ball or split between Tiago and Boris.
That's the kind of distribution that I'd be willing to count on with the season on the line.
As for Blair, the playoffs are for people who can play defense, execute, and not check out when the going gets tough. He needs to be out of the rotation except for garbage time.
If the Spurs get knocked out early, the big rotation will be the reason why. That said, I think they've got a legit shot at taking it all if they can sort that out.
Since it's coming to the end without any significant moves, though, I'm getting nervous.
I don't think you'd find many to argue with you on this site. I guess I was trying to to balance desires with realism. For example, for both Duncan and Splitter to get 25+ mpg, they have to be on the court together a lot, and it's really hard to see Pop going with that drastic a change at this point.
Honestly, Blair deserves more than a C-, maybe a B-.
And Splitter doesn't deserve an A-. A B+ at most.
Yes indeed.
Parker is not only finishing and hitting the jumper, he sets up the entire offense with his now selective probing. He is making wonderful decisions on what to do with the ball. His mastery of feeling the offensive flow of the game is a huge step up. He now has an instinct to attact when the opponent is tired or lazy, and when the D is well set up and alert, he works the opponents D around screens moves the ball to the right spot and frankly helps wear them down. The maturity of his game must give Popovich a huge sense of satisfaction based on the way he was hounded in his early years.
I agree with you honestly.
It's just hard to accept because this is what the team's playoff success hinges on.
The Spurs won't be able to beat the better teams in the West if our big rotation stays as is and I'm not 100% sure that the setup you proposed is going to be enough because of Blair and Bonner both playing too much.
In terms of reality it does look about right though.
Still based on expectations. You sound like you joined ST yesterday.Duncan and Manu with the same grade? Tiago with a better grade than Duncan?
Thanks a lot for the grades.
Regarding Blair, the killing stat is +/- :
Spurs with Blair (1104 minutes) : -27
Spurs without Blair (1364 minutes) : +309
So I guess that makes Blair the anti-Bonner when it comes to plus/minus?Thanks a lot for the grades.
Regarding Blair, the killing stat is +/- :
Spurs with Blair (1104 minutes) : -27
Spurs without Blair (1364 minutes) : +309
Pretty much.
Spurs with Bonner (1037 minutes) : +269
Spurs without Bonner (1431 minutes) : +13
Blair and Bonner basically split the PF spot, it's kinda logical that if one is very good at +/-, the other sucks.
With only 15 games left or so, when will Blair be removed from the starting lineup? Is Pop waiting till the final week to figure out his playoff rotation?
My respect for Tony Parker continues to grow day by day. He's leading this spurs' squad by example and directing a starting lineup that features two rookies and making it all look effortless. I love how his game has finally matured in so many ways. He's taken his game to a whole new level as far as leadership and decision making. As a more mature point guard he has also been improved at getting other guys involved in the offense which not only helps the team more but makes his own offense more efficient and potent.
To a lesser extent it appears Manu is going through some of the same changes (and has been quoted saying so), that he also has come to the realization that the playmaking aspect of his (and Tony's) respective games can be the most potent part of their games. Of course you need weapons around you in order to do this and Pop has taken care this year to put those in place.
I always said, you can pencil in an automatic spurs W if Parker and Ginobili log 15+ assists.
Bruno I have a question that you might be qualified to answer. Can Diaw replicate Blair's scoring in and around the rim? The great hands, etc? We all have seen the passing expertise inherent of Boris. And supposedly Diaw can also shoot the basketball though we haven't seen that yet.
That's one of my concerns about Diaw starting, is that Blair works with Parker pretty well as far as being in the right place at the right time for Tony's dump offs and P&R outlets.
He seems to be comfortable being in the paint (for post moves, etc) and the consensus is that he would play better P&R defense and protect the rim better. So I am guessing he could replicate Blair's positives to some extent.
Boris won't have trouble to understand Tony's play, and the same for the other way....
They've been playing with each other since they were teenagers...
Not picking up James Anderson's option doesn't seem so bad any more
Could we see this in past playoff terms?
Didn't even think of that, good one. The chemistry should be good from the get-go from all their years of playing on the french team.
All the more reason for Pop to take the plunge and try it out. The chance of Diaw being an upgrade has to be very high. And the way I look at it, If Blair is bound to sulk and give up on wanting to contribute to the team anymore, his selfish play is going to bite the spurs in the butt most likely anyway. And is it really going to affect the spurs one way or another for him to sulk on the bench? I think not. Pop still will have 4 solid bigs + a number of small ball options now.
Still disagree.
Tiago with a higher grade than Bonner too...
U Mad T?
Bonner......
This is a much more realistic grade all things considered. I long for the day that Splitters production equals his potential and the accolades he gets on this board. Bird, McHale and Parrish better be glad that Splitter wasn't on that Celtics roster or they wouldn't get any minutes. Or that Splitter didn't join the team the year after Timmy got to the Spurs or his spot as the greatest PF of all time would be in jeopardy. Because of Tiago's potential and his +/- numbers. I am just being sarcastic and am NOT a Tiago hater and everyone is en led to their favorite player. I am a TP guy, but when he does badly I will make excuses but I won't blindly maintain he had the best player on the court. For all of Blair's defensive liabilities he HAS contributed to this teams success this year, offensively on the boards and more than anything else by being there on the floor, that is better than a C-. Tiago for all his potential, and his in game contributions, he has been injured, seemingly played some games soft. I don't think that gets you an A- this year either.
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