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Obviously health will always be the key. Props to the Spurs brass for trading for Leonard and acquiring Jack, Diaw, and Mills, which have given this team a much needed boost.
Prior to the season, I went on record as saying the Spurs had only a 3% chance to win a championship. After Manu's early season injury and observing the fact that RJ had lost about four steps during the lockout, I lowered San Antonio's chances to 1%.
Honestly, looking back on it, I think both of those numbers were too high. I was pessimistic but not pessimistic enough. No team that relied on RJ and didn't have anything resembling a fifth bigman was going to win a championship. I guess the homer in me couldn't drop the Spurs all the way down to 0%.
Now, after the midseason makeover, I believe there's reason for optimism. IMO, here are those general reasons in order:
1. The Big 3 appears capable of turning back the clock, at least in spurts.
2. RJ's non-compe iveness no longer eats 30 minutes per night.
3. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green have blossomed.
4. An extreme compe or has been added in Stephen Jackson.
5. Boris Diaw gives the Spurs another quality bigman option.
6. Their peak appears to be better timed this season.
What are the Spurs' chances to win a fifth NBA championship this season? The first hurdle is obviously health. No matter how well the Spurs are playing now, it will all come crumbling down if one of the Big 3 gets injured. And since all three are more injury prone than ever, that's a legit concern.
In a glass half full scenario, I'll give the Spurs these odds:
Staying healthy for the next two and a half months: 50%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 90%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%
I think that is fair for an optimistic look at things. If healthy, this team really shouldn't lose in the first round. It appears as if they'll have HCA in the second round, so they should be favored. If the Spurs make it to the WCF, that means they are playing well ... and that's when their experience would hypothetically kick in. In the Finals, the Spurs would likely be an underdog but, again, if they make it that far, I'd be confident in their experiencing playing a large role.
Add it up and that gives the Spurs a 7.4% of winning a championship this season when viewing things in a glass half full manner. That's not a great percentage but considering I had them at 1% not that long ago, I'll certainly take it.
Glass half empty odds:
Staying healthy for the next two and a half months: 33%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 80%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 55%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 45%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 40%
2.6% chance of a championship.
Obviously health will always be the key. Props to the Spurs brass for trading for Leonard and acquiring Jack, Diaw, and Mills, which have given this team a much needed boost.
On that note Hollinger has them winning it all, leading the league with 20% of his simulations.
I think you're still being a little homer though I do believe Spurs chances have heighten. Still have to see how the team is after the FR.
Amazing but trueobserving the fact that RJ had lost about four steps during the lockout,
I think this team is good enough to win it all and is much better equiped this year to handle the physical play in the playoffs. It's probably by design that ginobili and duncan are more out on the perimeter shooting than taking it inside or in duncan case banging down low so they can keep their bodies fresh for the playoffs. Looking at stats you can tell this team is good enough to win it all
Points Per Game-3rd
Rebounds Per Game-10th
Assist Per Game-5th
The only category for concern may be thier D which they rank 17th overall but to me this team has shown they are capable of turning up the D in spurts when needed like in the 4th quater. ALso points in the paint is a plus for us as since the jackson trade as we have outscored our oppents 9 out of the last 10 games just having jackson alone made this team stronger but then adding diaw in my opinion is what made them legit championship contenders.
If Bonner and Blair continue to eat big minutes I give the spurs about a 3% chance. If Splitter and Diaw instead are given those minutes the figure rises to about 25%.
Tbh, that was the reason why I made this thread. There's no doubt that 20% is way too high right now but somewhere between 3-7% isn't too unreasonable and a huge improvement.
5% if Blair and Bonner get more minutes then Splitter and Diaw.
25% if Splitter and Diaw get more minutes then Blair and Bonner.
This is assuming the team is fully healthy fur the entire run. I'm just pulling numbers out of my ass.
I can't see them getting past the second round if Bonner/Blair are going to get more minutes than Splitter/Diaw, especially if they run into the Lakers.
it all depends on matchups.
1/10 are my odds
I was the biggest pessimist on this site before and at the start of this season and the Spurs are forcing me to have hope. They better not this up and flame out again.
His model doesn't factor in injuries. I think HCA would change the odds in our favor quite a bit, personally, against the likes of OKC and Mia. The Spurs play gutty on the road, at least in the last 18 games or so, but they play with more juice at home.
I just want us to be healthy
That's it. It's been too long since this team has shown us what it can do when healthy.
Before the big three era ends, I want to see these guys get tested at full strength. It would be great, as a fan, to watch any outcome in the playoffs as long as we get the privilege of watching them at full strength.
I'm tired of thinking what if every year. If we are healthy and lose to Memphis or swept by Phoenix I can neal with it very easily if we are fill strength, cuz we know we're an inferior team.
Just one postseason before Duncan retires (looking at you manu) I don't wanna think What If when we get eliminated
We're better than when the season started, but rotations are going to define how far we go IMO... and by rotations, I mean big men rotations...
would you guys rather us face miami or chicago in the finals? i think i'd rather play miami... the bulls play great defense, have the best front court in the league, and their coach is way better than the heat's. rose outplays parker too, but he's the best pg in the game so he'd outplay any other one.
Tough choice. Spo seems to be getting better and better and the talent on their perimeter is undeniable. I'd be more comfortable with Miami if there was some guarantee that the Spurs could use their frontcourt to their advantage.
Chicago has a really good coach. They've beaten Miami without Rose. Their bench is strong and they're balanced. They don't seem to blow teams out though so with some good offensive execution perhaps it could be done.
...I think I'm going to start cheering for Boston or Orlando.
As I've said before, an injury to Bonner or Blair keeping them out of the playoffs would improve this team's championship odds significantly.
yeah, i can't believe they've managed to have the best record in the league to this point in the season with rose missing, what... like a dozen games? impressive.
Assuming SA is lucky enough to get that far, I'd rather play Chicago in a heartbeat.
Too bad, they'll never get past the Heat in the ECF.
Yeah. Deng and Hamilton have also missed games with injuries. The Bulls are legit imo.
Im being very optimistic but I think the Spurs have a solid chance of winning the Championship..I think of it this way, If the Mavericks won a Championship last year the Spurs are definitely good enough to get it done this year..these guys have to be ready to play, they will be determined, TP Manu and Timmy are HUNGRY for a ring.
Lol...
Agreed on the Bonner part only...but when I say this...the popsuckers/homers get their panties in a huge twist...
Better for you to bring it up...
Miami, no question. The television ratings would be insanely high, and the Spurs would gain even more hatred by defeating the Heat.
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