Championship Odds

[polandprzem]

How did you come up with those numbers?


You made some calculations or you just pick some numbers by your hunch ?

[gambit1990]

Assuming SA is lucky enough to get that far, I'd rather play Chicago in a heartbeat.

Too bad, they'll never get past the Heat in the ECF.

i have to agree with the latter part of your statement. why would you prefer to play chicago though? i would just see it harder for ginobili and parker to score in the paint.

[Mugen]

i have to agree with the latter part of your statement. why would you prefer to play chicago though? i would just see it harder for ginobili and parker to score in the paint.

I just don't think they have a legit 2nd option behind Rose. Rose would undoubtedly beast on us but i figure Pop would just eventually let him get his throughout a 7 game series while making sure nobody else gets hot.

Plus it would be their first time in the Finals and wouldn't have the same hunger that Miami does.

The Heat have two legit #1 options, a solid #2 in Bosh, and a great defense. I just don't see them choking away two championships in a row, tbh.

[maverick1948]

As I've said before, an injury to Bonner or Blair keeping them out of the playoffs would improve this team's championship odds significantly.

Lol...

Agreed on the Bonner part only...but when I say this...the popsuckers/homers get their panties in a huge twist...

Better for you to bring it up...

WOW still wishing an injury on one of our own players. Good Lord. Bonner... Blair.... Who the got is to this point? Sure as wasnt Diaw. SJax didnt do it. RJ wasnt helping much. Ever thought a lot of our problems on D was Bonner/Blair and the rest of the team having to take care of RJ's crappy D? Damn I want the Spurs to win it all but I dont see Diaw making that much of an impact with the Spurs as yet. That is like 1/2 of you saying "look what Patty Mills did. 20 points and good D." I seen street that had more discipline than the pick up game against Cleveland. One or two games and some are ready to declare the new guys guaranteeing us a championship. If that were true dont you think Pop would be starting them? Bonner gets a double double against Boston and most claim it was meaningless because it was Bonner, but Timmy gets a double double and he is the greatest. When Bonner gets one I think he played his ass off, when Timmy does, I think that is Timmy being Timmy.

Stop wishing bad things on the Spurs. We need all our players.

[TJastal]

WOW still wishing an injury on one of our own players. Good Lord. Bonner... Blair.... Who the got is to this point? Sure as wasnt Diaw. SJax didnt do it. RJ wasnt helping much. Ever thought a lot of our problems on D was Bonner/Blair and the rest of the team having to take care of RJ's crappy D? Damn I want the Spurs to win it all but I dont see Diaw making that much of an impact with the Spurs as yet. That is like 1/2 of you saying "look what Patty Mills did. 20 points and good D." I seen street that had more discipline than the pick up game against Cleveland. One or two games and some are ready to declare the new guys guaranteeing us a championship. If that were true dont you think Pop would be starting them? Bonner gets a double double against Boston and most claim it was meaningless because it was Bonner, but Timmy gets a double double and he is the greatest. When Bonner gets one I think he played his ass off, when Timmy does, I think that is Timmy being Timmy.

Stop wishing bad things on the Spurs. We need all our players.

10 boards against the league's worst rebounding team is like beating a re in a game of scrabble.

[The_Worlds_finest]

Tbh, that was the reason why I made this thread. There's no doubt that 20% is way too high right now but somewhere between 3-7% isn't too unreasonable and a huge improvement.

For me I think his stats are starting to reflect post RJ Spurs. I have never recorded the chart prior to playoffs, so nothing to bench mark against. You have something through the years?

[TampaDude]

Just got back from July 4th.

The Spurs are NBA Champions on July 4th.

So, the chances are 100%.

[TD 21]

7.4% is too low. Only four teams have a legit shot at the championship and they're one of them. I'm willing to leave open the slight possibility of a random fifth team pulling it off, but you can't tell me the other three legit contenders have a significantly better shot than the Spurs. And by significantly, I mean 30% for each of the three and 2.6% for a random fifth.

I don't have any formula, this is pure subjectivity . . .

1. Heat: 30%
2. Bulls: 25%
3. Spurs: 22.5%
4. Thunder: 20%
5. Other: 2.5%

[TJastal]

Just got back from July 4th.

The Spurs are NBA Champions on July 4th.

So, the chances are 100%.

Book it?

[TJastal]

7.4% is too low. Only four teams have a legit shot at the championship and they're one of them. I'm willing to leave open the slight possibility of a random fifth team pulling it off, but you can't tell me the other three legit contenders have a significantly better shot than the Spurs. And by significantly, I mean 30% for each of the three and 2.6% for a random fifth.

I don't have any formula, this is pure subjectivity . . .

1. Heat: 30%
2. Bulls: 25%
3. Spurs: 22.5%
4. Thunder: 20%
5. Other: 2.5%

I'll go with:

1. Heat 25%
2. Spurs 20%
3. Bulls 18%
3. Thunder 18%
4. Mavs 8%
5. Lakers 7%
6. Rest 4%

[Paranoid Pop]

7.4% is too low. Only four teams have a legit shot at the championship and they're one of them. I'm willing to leave open the slight possibility of a random fifth team pulling it off, but you can't tell me the other three legit contenders have a significantly better shot than the Spurs. And by significantly, I mean 30% for each of the three and 2.6% for a random fifth.

I don't have any formula, this is pure subjectivity . . .

1. Heat: 30%
2. Bulls: 25%
3. Spurs: 22.5%
4. Thunder: 20%
5. Other: 2.5%

So you have Memphis and LAL at about 1% each ??

[TheSkeptic]

So you have Memphis and LAL at about 1% each ??

Memphis?

[TampaDude]

Book it?

Yup. FACT.

[TJastal]

Forgot about Memphis. Give them darkhorse status (because of return of Gay). Same with the celtics/pacers in the east. Darkhorse = unknown/unpredictable.

[TheSkeptic]

Darkhorse teams don't win championships. Also, Gay's a ballhog.

Out of all those teams you picked I'd only give the Celtics about half a percentage point of a chance because they've been there before. Teams like the Pacers and Thunder get a zero percent chance in my mind. Too young and inexperienced.

Yeah the Pacers don't stand a chance but I'd give the Thunder more than 0%.

[TheSkeptic]

Zero percent chance for the Thunder this season, but a 50% chance they win one or more championship(s) in the Durant era. They're still at least a couple, if not a few, years away from le contending. As it stands they're a good regular season team just as the young ones go.

That position is reasonable enough.

[TD 21]

So you have Memphis and LAL at about 1% each ??

Pretty much. I'd go slightly higher for the Lakers than the Grizzlies, though.

My thoughts on why the Lakers are not a legit contender . . .

I wrote them off before the season began, as far as being a legit contender. There's only four teams capable of winning the championship and they're not one of them. It's not just the obvious personnel issues, it's the lack of chemistry. That team clearly doesn't like each other and clearly doesn't respect their coach. I can't think of a championship team in recent memory that you could say that about. And then there's the simple fact that they can't win easily. It's always a grind. That's another characteristic that you don't find in championship teams.

This team reminds me a lot of the '08 Spurs. They're too old to sustain anything and don't have enough depth or versatility. That team still had three of the best players in the league too, but it was obvious well in advance of the playoffs that their aura and mystique were gone and that they were not going to win the championship. And they didn't lack chemistry or have a problem with their coach. They also defended much better than this Lakers team. That's the thing, the Lakers offense isn't just anemic, but their defense, while fairly good, isn't nearly good enough to compensate for that.

[Cry Havoc]

Zero percent chance for the Thunder this season

Yeah, I could see how you say that, considering they just took the Heat to the wire and have beaten them badly this season already.

Seriously, wtf? The Thunder are healthy and playing extremely good basketball. I could easily see them making the Finals.

[Keepin' it real]

Spurs chances = 0% if they destroy team chemistry by benching Blair like they did last season. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. (and it ain't broke)

[rascal]

Tbh, that was the reason why I made this thread. There's no doubt that 20% is way too high right now but somewhere between 3-7% isn't too unreasonable and a huge improvement.

3-7% is too low.

There are only 6 teams in the league capable of winning it all.

Miami which should have the highest odds, then Chicago because they play in the weak east one of those two should advance to the finals then the Spurs, OK City, Dallas and The Lakers are the only ones coming out of the west. Split 100% between those 6 teams, the Spurs should have higher odds then less than 10%.

[timvp]

I knew TD 21 would give the Spurs better odds because he thought they should be the favorites in the West even before the RJ trade ... but rascal? Dude has changed lately

[therealtruth]

I think it will come down to whether the Spurs's crunch time defense is enough.

[ViceCity84]

Blair still starting
Bonner still getting significant minutes
1% chance

[TheSkeptic]

Balir still starting
Bonner still getting significant minutes
1% chance

How generous.

[angelbelow]

7.4% is too low. Only four teams have a legit shot at the championship and they're one of them. I'm willing to leave open the slight possibility of a random fifth team pulling it off, but you can't tell me the other three legit contenders have a significantly better shot than the Spurs. And by significantly, I mean 30% for each of the three and 2.6% for a random fifth.

I don't have any formula, this is pure subjectivity . . .

1. Heat: 30%
2. Bulls: 25%
3. Spurs: 22.5%
4. Thunder: 20%
5. Other: 2.5%

+1

As far as our championship hope before the season started, 3%/1% was definitely too high. Anyone claiming otherwise is out of their mind.

With Manu's early season injury, my initially feelings were so bad that I wanted to tank for the draft. Finally, I settled on just making the playoffs and racking in some additional arena revenue and merchandise sales.

From initially having such low expectation to now believing that we can compete has made this season a treat to watch. I especially enjoyed Parker's play, the roster makeover, the emergence of Splitter, the return of Jackson, and the development of Kawhi Leonard.

I would still like to see some roster changes to maximize the talent and the b-ball IQ we have on this team.