Championship Odds

[timvp]

Tbh, logically you have to have Miami, Chicago and probably OKC with double the Spurs odds because they are at least half as likely to suffer an injury that ruins their playoff run. The Spurs have suffered a killer injury four postseason in a row and this year the Big 3 is teetering on over the hill. Suck but that's reality with an injury prone team.

[Jimcs50]

Betting odds.

On April 1st, I bet $100 to win $400 for Spurs to win the West.

I wagered $100 to win $1000 for them to win the NBA championship.

I think those are fantastic odds.

If Spurs play in playoffs like they have been playing the last month, I think they should be favorites to win West and at worst a 2-1 dog against Chicago or Miami.

[Drz]

Staying healthy for the next two and a half months: 50%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 90%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

Add it up and that gives the Spurs a 7.4% of winning a championship...

Did you mean to give the Spurs a 0% chance to win the championship if they don't stay healthy?

[100%duncan]

7.4% is too low. Only four teams have a legit shot at the championship and they're one of them. I'm willing to leave open the slight possibility of a random fifth team pulling it off, but you can't tell me the other three legit contenders have a significantly better shot than the Spurs. And by significantly, I mean 30% for each of the three and 2.6% for a random fifth.

I don't have any formula, this is pure subjectivity . . .

1. Heat: 30%
2. Bulls: 25%
3. Spurs: 22.5%
4. Thunder: 20%
5. Other: 2.5%

You don't put Chicago at number 2. They won't get past the heat,tbh,imo.

[TJastal]

You don't put Chicago at number 2. They won't get past the heat,tbh,imo.

Heat look very beatable lately actually.

[timvp]

Did you mean to give the Spurs a 0% chance to win the championship if they don't stay healthy?

By "healthy" I mean TD, Manu and TP staying healthy. So yeah, if one of those three go down, I'd say the chances drop to zero ... or a number so small that it's not worth quantifying.

[ducks]

17.9% spurs win it all

[roycrikside]

Tbh, logically you have to have Miami, Chicago and probably OKC with double the Spurs odds because they are at least half as likely to suffer an injury that ruins their playoff run. The Spurs have suffered a killer injury four postseason in a row and this year the Big 3 is teetering on over the hill. Suck but that's reality with an injury prone team.

All true. But, the Spurs will play an easier schedule in the playoffs as far as fatigue goes. They'll have at most a couple of back-to-backs, and even then it'll be in the same gym so jetlag won't be an issue. No back-to-backs after round 2 either.

[GINNNNNNNNNNNNOBILI]

Honestly, the only teams that really scare me are Chicago and Miami, because they are great defensive teams. In my eyes they are the ONLY teams I'd think the Spurs would be dogs against in a series.

Against the Thunder I'd give the Spurs a 60/40 chance if they had home court. And probably a 50/50 chance if OKC had home court.

I'm actually more worried about Memphis and LA Lakers in the playoffs for obvious reasons. Hopefully Diaw takes on a bigger role come playoff time.

[TD 21]

I knew TD 21 would give the Spurs better odds because he thought they should be the favorites in the West even before the RJ trade ... but rascal? Dude has changed lately

No. I specifically said the Thunder should be the favorites, because they need less to go right for them, but that the Spurs were the better team. Suffice it to say, given what I've seen from some of the mainstays, plus the new guys, my belief has only been further solidified.

And 100%duncan, I put anyone, anywhere I want them. I'm the judge and the jury around here.

[timvp]

No. I specifically said the Thunder should be the favorites, because they need less to go right for them, but that the Spurs were the better team.

You thought a healthy RJ team should be favorites in the West. That hurts your credibility, tbh. No RJ Spurs team was going to do anything in the playoffs, healthy or not

[Splits]

By "healthy" I mean TD, Manu and TP staying healthy. So yeah, if one of those three go down, I'd say the chances drop to zero ... or a number so small that it's not worth quantifying.

I would say this is true if TD or TP go down, since we can't replace them. Not having Manu would make it more difficult but not impossible, because his role is much easier to fill with our depth on the wings.

[Splits]

Betting odds.

On April 1st, I bet $100 to win $400 for Spurs to win the West.

I wagered $100 to win $1000 for them to win the NBA championship.

I think those are fantastic odds.

If Spurs play in playoffs like they have been playing the last month, I think they should be favorites to win West and at worst a 2-1 dog against Chicago or Miami.

Spurs are now 7-1 to win it all and 3-1 to win the WCF.

On March 25th I put $300 to win $4500 on the chip and $150 to win $900 on the WCF. The odds have plummeted since then, as we haven't lost since March 17.

[therealtruth]

You thought a healthy RJ team should be favorites in the West. That hurts your credibility, tbh. No RJ Spurs team was going to do anything in the playoffs, healthy or not

RJ helped win game 2 in Dallas in '10. I think he also had a pretty good game 2 against the Suns.

[TD 21]

You thought a healthy RJ team should be favorites in the West. That hurts your credibility, tbh. No RJ Spurs team was going to do anything in the playoffs, healthy or not

Wow, you really don't possess an ounce of reading comprehension.

Jefferson didn't change the equation against the Thunder. The Spurs still would have had more scoring depth and the Thunder still wouldn't have been able to exploit the Spurs biggest weakness. And when Jefferson inevitably went fetal, they could have flat out benched him, by going with Leonard and Green at the three.

Saying that the Spurs were the better team all along doesn't hurt my credibility at all. There was plenty of reasons to support that. And let's face it, if the Spurs record vs the Thunder in recent seasons was reversed, no one would be pretending as if the Spurs had a chance. I'm not going that far at all with the Thunder, but they are the inferior team.

[smeagol]

3-7% is too low.

There are only 6 teams in the league capable of winning it all.

Miami which should have the highest odds, then Chicago because they play in the weak east one of those two should advance to the finals then the Spurs, OK City, Dallas and The Lakers are the only ones coming out of the west. Split 100% between those 6 teams, the Spurs should have higher odds then less than 10%.

Who's taken over rascal's computer?

[timvp]

You thought a healthy RJ team should be favorites in the West. That hurts your credibility, tbh. No RJ Spurs team was going to do anything in the playoffs, healthy or not

Wow, you really don't possess an ounce of reading comprehension.

Jefferson didn't change the equation against the Thunder. The Spurs still would have had more scoring depth and the Thunder still wouldn't have been able to exploit the Spurs biggest weakness. And when Jefferson inevitably went fetal, they could have flat out benched him, by going with Leonard and Green at the three.

Saying that the Spurs were the better team all along doesn't hurt my credibility at all. There was plenty of reasons to support that. And let's face it, if the Spurs record vs the Thunder in recent seasons was reversed, no one would be pretending as if the Spurs had a chance. I'm not going that far at all with the Thunder, but they are the inferior team.

Hint: When you claim someone lacks reading comprehension, you shouldn't then reinforce the point they just made.

[Fabbs]

Prior to the season, I went on record as saying the Spurs.....

You also said if Splitter and Duncan were not integrated to playing together the Spurs had no chance.

Do you still feel that way?

[SequSpur]

Spurs jackup too many threes...bonner is still owning POP. Zero chance. First round and out...

Spurs are the new suns...

[rascal]

I knew TD 21 would give the Spurs better odds because he thought they should be the favorites in the West even before the RJ trade ... but rascal? Dude has changed lately

The spurs have a shot if they get lucky. Good matchups and injuries to other teams stars and staying healthy. There is no clear top team in the West this year(don't believe in OK City- chokers) and if they get to the finals they will win. I have always said the Spurs will never lose an NBA finals.

Miami is the clear favorite if they stay healthy. If Miami wins that means the Spurs don't even get to the finals.

[rascal]

Spurs are now 7-1 to win it all and 3-1 to win the WCF.

On March 25th I put $300 to win $4500 on the chip and $150 to win $900 on the WCF. The odds have plummeted since then, as we haven't lost since March 17.

It is starting to be not such a good bet anymore.

[rascal]

All true. But, the Spurs will play an easier schedule in the playoffs as far as fatigue goes. They'll have at most a couple of back-to-backs, and even then it'll be in the same gym so jetlag won't be an issue. No back-to-backs after round 2 either.

There are no back to backs in the playoffs.

[Mel_13]

There are no back to backs in the playoffs.

Playoff Back to Backs: Possible in second round

http://www.nba.com/2011/news/11/27/schedule/index.html

[Fabbs]

^ what the latest on playoff b2bs? That article you posted was in Dec 2011.

[Mel_13]

^ what the latest on playoff b2bs? That article you posted was in Dec 2011.

Why don't you go find out:

google.com