Preview: Spurs vs. Lakers - Apr. 11

[timvp]

Considering that the Spurs could end up playing the Lakers up to ten times in the six weeks, it's a good idea to get acquainted with these guys. Even though Kobe Bryant will be out due to a shin injury, there are still many things to watch for tonight:

Can Tim Duncan be effective?
Last year against the Lakers, Tim Duncan was absolutely horrible. Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum dominated him on both ends of the court; he has never looked so helpless on a basketball court. In those three games last season, Duncan averaged 4.0 points and 6.3 rebounds in 28.3 minutes per game while shooting 19.2% from the field (5-for-26). Obviously, the Spurs need their foundation to play much, much, much better this year.

How will Tony Parker do against Ramon Sessions?
Derek Fisher finally reached the end of the road, so the Lakers replaced him with Ramon Sessions. Sessions is a solid offense player but has never been known to be much of a defender. If Tony Parker can dominate this matchup, San Antonio's hopes against the Lakeshow will improve dramatically.

Can Manu Ginobili thwart World Peace?
No player has defended Manu Ginobili as well as Ron Artest through the years. In 14 career regular season matchups, Ginobili averages only 13.4 points on 39.7% shooting from the floor and 30.6% shooting on three-pointers. Will Manu Ginobili have more success against Metta World Peace? Let's hope so.

Can DeJuan Blair survive the size?
While DeJuan Blair has had success in the past against the Lakers, it's almost always been against either Gasol or Bynum -- but very rarely against both at the same time. Blair's lack of size is never as obvious as when he's trying to score over the Lakers' imposing frontline. Can he somehow change that perception tonight?

Will the Lakers shutdown the corner threes?
The Spurs need corner three-pointers to be at their best on the offensive end. The Lakers make it a point to not allow teams to shoot corner threes. It'll be interesting to see if the Spurs can crack their defense or if they'll be forced to score in other ways.

Will San Antonio's depth play a major role?
There's no doubt that the Spurs have the far superior depth. In fact, San Antonio's depth may be the strongest aspect of this team. In theory, if the Spurs can push the pace and turn the game into a sprint, their depth advantage should shine.

How much will size be an advantage for the Lakers?
On paper, the Spurs are at a major size disadvantage. The Spurs won't just have to figure out how to slow Gasol and Bynum, they'll need to figure out ways to score over the top of that imposing duo. If Pop uses his normal rotation, the Spurs will undoubtedly be stretched to their limits. However, that leads to the game's most interesting subplot...

Will Pop play Tiago Splitter next to Tim Duncan?
If Pop is ever going to play Splitter next to Duncan, this will be the game. In theory, it's the perfect answer to Gasol and Bynum. But, as we've seen all season, Pop is very hesitant to play his two biggest players at the same time. Will that change tonight?

[EVAY]

Great questions and great issues/observations, imo.

1. Can Tim be effective? I don't think that Tim can be effective against BOTH of their big men without some help. Offensively, Tim's midrange jumper is far better this year than last, so he can try to draw one of the their bigs to him and open some room under the basket, but he will not be able to do the 'give me the ball, let me turn my back to the basket and dribble until I decide to turn and shoot' move with any effectiveness, I fear. Those days are behind him whenever he is faced with a talented and strong post defender these days. Bynum will block him time after time if he tries, I believe.

Defensively, he will need some help on Gasol in the post, and I'm assuming that Leonard may be asked to help him there.

2. Tony vs. Sessions. To me, the question about Tony is not who is on the perimeter with him, but how he will fare going into the paint against twin towers. Not well, I fear. The Lakers defend the pnr quite well, I believe, partly because it only takes one of their bigs chasing our screen setter while another can stay home to block or alter shots at the rim. It will really depend on whether or not Ton'y floater is working, imo. In the alternative, if whoever is not involved in the pick and roll can block out their other big, Tony (or Manu or whomever) could have a fine time at the rim. The lakers are good (at least under Jackson they were good) at defending the passing lanes, and that is huge part of the Spur's offense.

3. Manu and World Peace. Wouldn't the issue here be to let Stephen Jackson drive Artest right over the very narrow ledge of sanity that he seems to walk and just let him take himself out of the game? Does anyone imagine that it wouldn't happen?

4. No.

5.Historically the Lakers were the best team I saw at getting their guys to 'stay home' on the perimeter players. I don't know if this will continue under Brown as coach, but we now have the talent (unlike prior years) to put the ball on the floor and make a midrange jumper if the three is denied. I don't think this is a problem.

6.San Antonio's depth. It can make a huge difference if we could get Pop to keep running different combinations of players at different times at them and keep them off base. Otherwise, they have been good at telling each player on their team "this is your guy...here is his scouting report...this is what he always does and this is how you counter him". And they were ALWAYS prepared for their assignment. That's why I think it will be important to change up our lineups to keep them guessing as to who they need to keep in their lineups.

7.See the answer to No.1

8. Who knows? The sky could turn purple tomorrow too. So it COULD happen...but I sorta doubt it.

[foodie2]

Well, now I'm depressed.

[JRHernandez88]

I predict that Tim Duncan continues with his solid play this season and goes for an all around good game. His confidence is at a point that i haven't seen in a few years.

[DesignatedT]

Good points. I can see Pop playing the normal rotation to see how it fares and if it's obvious we need a lot more size than I'd expect Tiago to play more in the next 2 games. Personally I think the 3rd game against LAL on 20th will be the game that is really telling. Both teams will be pretty familiar with each other by that point and it will be the last times the teams meet until possibly the 2nd round.

[gameFACE]

Sizewise we are the same as last year with the exception of Diaw. But it's not proven if width is better than height yet, no matter how good of a passer you are. If DuJuan Blair has a great game tonight, that's great. But I bet you that doesn't happen in the next meetings. Duncan will be fresh so the potential for a good game is there.

I don't think Sessions is going to get the better of TP. TP won't let thet happen. It's whether or not he gets in the lane at all.

With Peace, Not only is there Stephen Jackson but Danny Green. Green doesn't have Peace's muscle but he can allow Manu some freedom.

The Spurs will win this one run-n-gun style.

[JRHernandez88]

Will Pop play Tiago Splitter next to Tim Duncan?
If Pop is ever going to play Splitter next to Duncan, this will be the game. In theory, it's the perfect answer to Gasol and Bynum. But, as we've seen all season, Pop is very hesitant to play his two biggest players at the same time. Will that change tonight?

This is the question that I'm sure we are all anxious about tbh. We've yet to see what our 7 footers can do together on the floor and we're all begging for the chance. It would definitely be encouraging to see them share some minutes though but I doubt that we see much of it. Hopefully I'm wrong though.

[Mugen]

The loss of Odom and Phil is huge, IMO. Especially in the playoffs.

Odom was a matchup nightmare and Phil always had a mental edge against Pop.

They should just pick n roll them to death instead of 4 down for Timmy where he has struggled against Bynum/Gasol. The Lakers have been a very poor defensive team since the Sessions trade.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Preview? timvp sounds stoked for the game

[Spur|n|Austin]

I don't see Pop all of a sudden showing the world a Duncan/Tiago tandem, unfortunately.

[jjktkk]

Free Tiago Pop.

[Obstructed_View]

Many of us have commented that Duncan looks refreshed and better than he's been in recent years, despite the stats that seem to prove the opposite. The proof should begin to become clear, one way or another.

[DesignatedT]

I agree that the loss of Odom at least makes it a little easier down low. All three of those guys on the court together (Bynum,Gasol,Odom) just killed us. I'm cool with Artest playing or Murphy or whatever else they got now.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Going to be a Morale crusher if we lose this or barely win

[LongtimeSpursFan]

Will Pop play Tiago Splitter next to Tim Duncan?
If Pop is ever going to play Splitter next to Duncan, this will be the game. In theory, it's the perfect answer to Gasol and Bynum. But, as we've seen all season, Pop is very hesitant to play his two biggest players at the same time. Will that change tonight?

Haven't we seen the answer to this question? In games with a big frontcourt....Lakers (last year) and Memphis (playoffs and this year), also, in games against Wolves, Pop has played Splitter in more minutes than usual. Maybe not the 32-35 minutes people would like but maybe 24-26 minutes. I could have sworn that Tiago was the first big off the bench against Lakers last years and Memphis (first game) this year.

[Sportcamper]

This…

Will San Antonio's depth play a major role?
There's no doubt that the Spurs have the far superior depth. In fact, San Antonio's depth may be the strongest aspect of this team.

Other than Josh McRoberts funny socks the Lakers bench is not much to look at…

[Spur|n|Austin]

Going to be a Morale crusher if we lose this or barely win

How is barley winning a morale crusher?

[timvp]

Haven't we seen the answer to this question? In games with a big frontcourt....Lakers (last year) and Memphis (playoffs and this year), also, in games against Wolves, Pop has played Splitter in more minutes than usual. Maybe not the 32-35 minutes people would like but maybe 24-26 minutes. I could have sworn that Tiago was the first big off the bench against Lakers last years and Memphis (first game) this year.

Duncan and Splitter haven't played even one second together against the Lakers. Against Memphis in the playoffs, the Duncan and Splitter combo was a last ditch effort by Pop to save the series. Overall, he's played those two together a little bit this year ... but most of that was early in the season. In recent weeks, I can't remember a time Pop played those two together in instances that didn't include foul trouble or injury.

Recent history tells us not to expect Duncan and Splitter together. Logic tells us it's the Spurs' best way to survive L.A.'s bigs.

[Old School 44]

tbh, without Kobe, I expect a 20+ point win.

[DesignatedT]

I remember earlier in the year (late jan?) Pop was starting to play Duncan and Splitter together a little bit more and more, even bringing Splitter 1st off the bench for Blair. This happened for like 2 or 3 games and then Splitter hurt the calf and Pop has since stayed away completely from the combo.

[timvp]

Very good post, EVAY

Preview? timvp sounds stoked for the game

Going to be a Morale crusher if we lose this or barely win

Tbh, even though I feel like a Suns fan just for typing this, I do think tonight is basically a must-win for the sake of the team's confidence. A loss tonight would cause a lot of second guessing, which isn't something you want with ten games remaining.

The Spurs don't necessarily have to blow them out but they need to win, IMO.

[sehui]

Are the big 3 expected to play in this one?

[Obstructed_View]

I don't necessarily think it's crucial for the team's confidence, but I think Pop gets way too into his own head about games like this, so it comes down to a "must play well" for everyone that gets time. What was a rather insignificant game for the Spurs which the Lakers treated like a playoff game turned out to have huge repercussions on the team last year.

[temujin]

3 days ago, with Bynum ejected, Brown played Murphy against Scola and got completely destroyed in the 4th.
Bynum and Gasol better play long minutes, because the replacements look just terrible.

[TheSkeptic]

Playing the Lakers just isn't the same without Kobe imo.

Their bigs are probably going to have a good night and all but I think the Laker bench is what's going to cost them the game. For some reason that "coach" of theirs hasn't really been playing Goudelock as of late apparently.

I just don't understand what he's thinking since he can play the bench/Goudelock with Bynum and start getting at least *some* consistent production throughout the game as opposed to these (hilarious) problems they're going through right now. They should just get it over with and promote Messina.

I think their bench will struggle to put up 20 (I'm being generous) and if the starters can keep it even San Antonio's bench can hopefully take care of the rest.

Reading the Laker forums, they've also been saying that defensively the team is pretty hit and miss. Blair should play well against Gasol but not Bynum and vice versa for Tim Duncan. That said, apparently Sessions is a bad pick and roll defender while Bynum is lazy and Gasol is slowing down. Problem is Artest and the others do show up against stars and teams they respect.

In any case, I say the bench play ends up being the deciding factor.