I really don't know that I agree with that, that it would be a 30 game suspension. As you pointed out, he's gotten longer suspensions for damaging equipment. The fact of the matter is that similar incidents (flagrant 2's, intentional elbows, head shots) are traditionally 1-2 game suspensions, though the Barea hit by Bynum was 5 games. Many people in the NBA community (reporters, players, etc) seemed to feel 5 games was appropriate - it seems to be non-Laker fans and some reporters loudly proclaiming the longer suspensions on the basis of viciousness or intention or concussion hysteria.
As someone (Mel? timvp?) suggested, the max number of games that he can be suspended without appeal is the most likely scenario here, imo.