We all know that the Spurs are at or near the top of the leage in every meaningful offensive stat. They are 1st in FG% and 3P%. They are 2nd in both PPG, and PPG Diff. They are 4th in APG, and 3rd in APG Diff.
Not only that, but the Spurs are peaking at exactly the right time. If you look at the league stats for the last 10 games, the Spurs are 1st in PPG, PPG Diff, and 3P% - by a big margin. They are 1st in FG% and APG, and 3rd in APG Diff. Amazingly, they are even 5th in the league in FT%.
In short, the Spurs are a true offensive juggernaut. That's the good news. And the bad news doesn't seem all that bad. On most defensive stats (other than Opponent APG) the spurs are near the mid-point in the league. If you look only at the last 10 games, things look even better - the Spurs were actually above mediocre defensively near the end of the season.
Still, in general, the Spurs defense gives up too many points, and too high of an Oppenent FG%. We all know that. We've heard it over and over again, throughout the season. And yet, here the Spurs are, tied for the best record in the league. Obviously they have been able to overcome the dismal Opponent FG% throughout an entire season.
Here's the problem. The one stat deficiency that really stands out to me is the rebounds. That may seem counter-intuitive, since the Spurs are 10th in RPG, and 8th in RPG Diff. But, surprisingly, during the last 10 games they fall to 11th and 14th, respectively. What really matters, I think, is the teams that are ahead of the Spurs in RPG Diff, and their RPG Diff. The Spurs RPG Diff is a barely-acceptable +1.70. But the teams at the top of the heap are:Note that, with the exception of Orlando, the teams that figure to challenge the Spurs are on the list. The Spurs' deficit is notable, through the regular season. The question is, will it widen when things get more physical in the playoffs? It's the rebounds that are going to give the other teams extra possessions, and give them easy points in transition. The Spurs aren't likely to control the boards against any of these teams - at least not over a whole series. But if they can't at least keep it close, they are vulnerable.Code:Lakers +9.90 Bulls +8.40 Miami +4.90 Utah +4.60 Orlando +4.30 OKC +3.50
It's worth noting that Memphis isn't on the list. Nor are Dallas, Boston, or Philly. If these playoffs go according to history, and the officials allow a lot more contact than in the regular season, I'm looking for the teams above to advance, with the Spurs being the only exception. Maybe the Tim/Tiago lineup that we saw near the end of the regular season will be able to tip the scales on the boards. Maybe Boris Diaw will give the Spurs a presence that they didn't have for much of the regular season. I hope so. Because I'm expecting to be able to gauge the Spurs success largely by that one column on the box score.
You make some great points.
It should be worth pointing out that recently against those teams the Spurs have been able to avoid being dominated on the boards:
- 4/20 vs. Lakers - Bynum 2 reb, Gasol 8
- 4/17 vs. Lakers - Bynum 7 reb, Gasol 7
- 4/12 vs. Grizzlies - Gasol 10, Randolph 11
- 4/8 vs. Jazz - Jefferson 10, Favors 12
It's a small sample size and not that impressive, but if you ask me it shows that rebounding won't be the achilles heel that we saw against the Grizzlies last year.
10 games is a small sample size and there can be large changes as a result of single games. The chart above does not include last night's games, so the first Laker game still counts as the 10th most recent game for the Spurs.
When the numbers are updated to include last night's games, the Spurs subtract a game with a deficit of 27 and add a game with an advantage of 12. The Lakers subtract a game with an advantage of 13 and add a game with a deficit of 7.
So when the chart is updated it goes from:
Lakers: +9.90
Spurs: +1.70
to a much more encouraging:
Lakers: +8.00
Spurs: +5.6
^I wouldn't even consider the last 2 games, or any other games where Duncan, Parker or Ginobili sat out.
Lots of guys resting for lots of teams these last two weeks.
Yeah, kinda' like Miami resting their Big 3 tonight and then having their asses completely PULVERIZED by The Wizards by over 30 pts. AAaaaahhhh... that's pretty good stuff right there. Me likey a'lot.
nba.com has updated teams stats now:
Last 10 games rebound differential:
Code:Bulls: +9.80 Lakers: +7.90 Jazz: +6.00 Spurs: +5.60 Nuggs: +5.40 Heat: +4.30 Raps: +4.30 OKC: +3.50
Spurs' best rebounder, Duncan, hasn't played in a few of those 10 games.
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