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Who actually believes they'll go undefeated throughout the playoffs? That's blasphemy.
Good read overall.
While I know most Spurs fans are so overconfident right now that they think San Antonio will not only win the championship but do so while going undefeated throughout the playoffs, I think tonight is when we'll really start figuring out how good this Spurs team is and what their chances are going forward.
The first two games against the Jazz were destined to be easy wins. The Jazz have been horrible on the road -- heck, they were worse on the road than the Nets and Bucks this season. A loss at home to the Jazz would have been a colossal upset. In fact, I think it's safe to say any team of the Duncan era would have gone up 2-0 in this series.
Tonight, though, will definitely be a test. At home, the Jazz won only one less game than the Bulls, Thunder, Lakers and Grizzlies. Furthermore, Utah hasn't lost to a playoff team at home in nearly three months.
Although Spurs fans are quick to point to the last game in Utah in which San Antonio sans the Big 3 almost won, I think that was more of a classic letdown game than anything else. The Jazz didn't come out with much energy due to the cir stances, while the Spurs were focused from the beginning to try to steal a win.
In Game 3, there won't be any lack of energy from the Jazz or their crowd. Salt Lake City promises to be ravenous and the Jazz fans incessant whining will be full-throat from the opening tip.
Why are the Jazz better at home? Their offensive efficiency goes from mediocre on the road to elite in front of their home fans. On the road, they average 97.4 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting on threes. At home, the Jazz average 101.9 points while shooting 46.4% from the field and 33.8% on threes. Utah also gets to the line much more often at home (23.3 vs. 27.2).
Individually, Al Jefferson and Devin Harris play much better at home. Jefferson shoots only 46.5% on the road but 52.3% in Salt Lake City. Harris sees his scoring average rise from 9.8 to 12.8, which is aided by the fact that he goes to the line twice as often at home. So far the Spurs have shut down Jeferson and Harris in this series, but that will be no small task tonight.
For the Spurs to win, the keys remain generally unchanged. To begin the contest, the Jazz are sure to come out fired up. With that in mind, the Spurs need to limit Utah's initial run and avoid early foul trouble. The rest of the way, San Antonio has to continue to do the things needed to beat Utah: rebound on both ends of the court, be physical enough offensively to ensure there won't be a large free throw disparity, and knock down three-pointers against their sagging defense.
I expect the Spurs to win Game 3 but I also expect it to be a dogfight. Things won't come easy and it's going to take some fourth quarter execution to get the job done. Do the 2012 Spurs have championship-level mettle? Tonight will begin to answer that question.
Believe.
Who actually believes they'll go undefeated throughout the playoffs? That's blasphemy.
Good read overall.
I fully expect to lose one of the Utah games. The problem for the Jazz is that they will have to expend so much effort on the court and in the film room looking for ANY edge to do so that they won't have anything left. It'll be a one off.
Spurs in 5.
If the Spurs let down, they're gonna get their asses kicked. Utah's been playing pretty good basketball for the last couple of months and they're desperate and they'll have one of the best crowds in sports behind them. There's not really a downside to any result of this game. If they lose, they'll learn an early lesson about maintaining focus.
There's also a little thing called professional pride. The Utah media has been shaming the team - calling them out since the end of the last game. I would be shocked if Utah didn't come out focused and physical.
Game 3 Officials: Ken Mauer (Crew Chief), James Capers, Leon Wood
Since 1998 playoffs:
Spurs are 10-7 overall in Mauer playoff games (5-4 on the road, 4-3 in the first round). They won the only game against the Jazz that Mauer has called in that time -- Game 4 of the 2007 WCF in Utah:
2011 WCFR Gm. 5 v. MEM (Win) -- Neal buzzer beater game
2010 WCSF Gm. 1 @ PNX (Loss)
2010 WCFR Gm. 2 @ DAL (Win)
2008 WCF Gm. 2 @ LAL (Loss)
2008 WCSF Gm. 6 v. NO (Win)
2008 WCFR Gm. 2 v. PNX (Win)
2007 NBAF Gm. 1 v. CLE (Win)
2007 WCF Gm. 4 @ UTH (Win)
2006 WCSF Gm. 6 @ DAL (Win)
2006 WCFR Gm. 3 @ SAC (Loss)
2005 WCF Gm. 2 @ PNX (Win)
2004 WCSF Gm. 6 @ LAL (Loss) -- game after .4
2003 WCSF Gm. 2 v. LAL (Win) -- Bowen's 27 pointer
2003 WCFR Gm. 1 v. PNX (Loss) -- Marbury buzzer beater
2002 WCSF Gm. 3 v. LAL (Loss)
1999 WCFR Gm. 2 v. MIN (Loss)
1998 WCFR Gm. 1 @ PNX (Win) -- Duncan's first playoff game
This season, the Spurs were 0-3 in games that Mauer called, losing in Oklahoma City, in Miami, and in Salt Lake City.
The Spurs are 8-2 overall in Capers playoff games (4-0 on the road, 4-1 in the first round):
2010 WCSF Gm. 3 v. PNX (Loss)
2010 WCFR Gm. 2 @ DAL (Win)
2009 WCFR Gm. 1 v. DAL (Loss)
2008 WCSF Gm. 4 v. NO (Win)
2008 WCFR Gm. 3 @ PNX (Win)
2007 WCSF Gm. 1 @ PNX (Win)
2006 WCFR Gm. 5 v. SAC (Win)
2005 WCSF Gm. 2 v. SEA (Win)
2003 WCSF Gm. 1 v. LAL (Win)
2002 WCFR Gm. 3 @ SEA (Win)
This season, the Spurs were 3-0 in games that Capers called, winning at home over Golden State, at Toronto, and at home against Utah on April 8).
The Spurs are 3-0 overall in Wood playoff games (1-0 on the road, 3-0 in the first round):
2011 WCFR Gm. 2 v. MEM (Win)This season, the Spurs are 3-0 in games that Wood called, winning at home over Oklahoma City, at home over New York, and at Boston.
2008 WCFR Gm. 2 v. PNX (Win)
2005 WCFR Gm. 3 @ DEN (Win)
The Jazz are 5-2 in Mauer playoff games since 2003 (3-2 at home, 3-1 in the First Round). They are 1-4 with Capers (1-1 at home, 0-2 in the First Round). They are 1-1 with Wood having split a pair of First Round games on the road.
Big key is to hold off the initial surge and get a fast start. Demoralize them early and it this will be another easy win.
JMcDonald_SAEN Spurs center Tiago Splitter (wrist) will be available for Game 3 tonight vs. Jazz.
I think that will be easy. Spurs will be playing 5 on 4 to start.
Howard is nothing but an obstacle.
Thank you both timvp and FromWayDowntown.
I have a feeling this game will be either a blowout win for the Jazz or the Spurs. Hoping for the latter, but wouldn't be surprised if the former comes to pass.
Tough game through 3 1/2, broken open down the stretch. 106-94.
Spurs in 6....Return of Manu!!
I don't think the Jazz can blowout the Spurs.
Spurs win by 12+,book it Danno!
Something interesting to keep note: The Spurs haven't won a road playoff game since Game 2 against Dallas in 2010. It would be nice for them to get a win here.
They're 3-16 on the road since winning the le in Cleveland in 2007.
They're 1-12 on the road since winning Game 7 in New Orleans the following year.
Honestly
The mormons will flop like crazy, especially Harris and Hayward.
If the refs do a good job, i don't them winning this game. We will continue to abuse Al Jefferson with P&R and Parker will have 20+ points once again
Honestly
The mormons will flop like crazy, especially Harris and Hayward.
If the refs do a good job, i don't them winning this game. We will continue to abuse Al Jefferson with P&R and Parker will have 20+ points once again
Why are teams playing their 4th game when Spurs haven't even played their third?
If we play with a mavericksesque intensity and get stomped I don't know how I will react.
Its not blind SpurFan pride to not even be able to mentally imagine losing tonight
The team has been peaking, on a roll, in an awesome groove.
I just can't see the spurs losing.
Go spurs
FFS. Another late-ass game to boot. My sleep-cycle is still ed up. Utah is only one hour behind SA time. Why 9PM over here?? This "series" is moving slower than molasses, I swear.
/wake-up rant
I honestly don't think they will come out lazy against the Jazz. I'm sure Pop has beat it into their minds that they are an elite home team. That being said, I think the Spurs will win by 15 or so.
For the record, we are 1-10 on the road since NO game 7 in 2008, not 1-12.
BTW, thanks for the read, timvp.
Nap time for me again now. Damn slow-ass schedule. Not used to all this extra freakin' time.
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