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at some posters being hard on Green, cut him some mother ing slack he was due for a letdown after what he'd done for us this PO
I'm sure you've seen the Spurs offense this year, and thus I'm sure you understand how he got open for two 3 pointers. (Hint: It wasn't because his guy left him open intentionally)
Here you make a solid point (although 30+ is too high an estimate, only Parker plays that much). I'm 99.999% sure Pop is fully aware of lineup effectiveness and that the Spurs perform better with Bonner on the floor, so as to why he gets average-to-middling minutes, my theory is 1) changing offensive looks leads to more points, and 2) Bonner's less-than-good athleticism means he needs more rest. That's just speculation on my part though.
This is not true. It would be true in the long term... if Bonner shot 35% from 3 for a long, extended period of time, yes, people no longer need to honor his floor spacing. But 0 for 2 in one game, with both shots being near hits... that's not even close to enough to say he "doesn't have it" tonight. Shots are close to independent events. You may not think so, as many people don't, but that is an error due to human bias.
http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/anthro/fa...%20barrett.pdf
Bonner must be the easiest guy to guard in the playoffs. You know he won't hit the shot if it's important.
Very true!
But Bonner going 0 for 2 after shooting 44% from 3 this postseason... what a red-headed ginger bum!!!!!!
LOL@Barkley saying Bonner would be the key to the series...
So far it's been Tiago Splitter who has been key. And if he could only knock down 70% FT the spurs could wrap up this series in 5 games.
Somebody needs to get with him and show him proper form, he's short arming, not bending at the knees and the result are shots not even making the rim.
That's why I pointed out "at this level". During the regular season teams simply don't go out of their ways to scout teams the way they do for a playoff series. At this level, everything gets broken down to minutiae: tendencies, mismatches, production under pressure, etc etc etc... Every game is huge and a single win or loss can turn a series around. I don't compare regular season Matt Bonner vs playoff Bonner, simply because they're two fairly different compe ion levels.
But if "changing the offensive looks leads to more points", then Bonner wouldn't lead +/-, right? What part doesn't jive there?
There's a couple more things you can add to your list: being an atrocious rebounder for his size, having unidimensional talent (guys like Horry could block a shot here or there, Diaw can pass the ball), not responding well to physical play.... that's just off the top of my head.
Players will tell you "rhythm" and "confidence" are huge. Players that go into hot streaks also tell you they feel like the rim become an ocean and feel everything they throw is going in. You hear this from professional athletes all the time. Might be just a mental factor, and perhaps unmeasurable, but it's there and Pop has indicated he believes in such things. Like when he was talking about Jax and saying that he plays "with an edge". What is this edge? Can you measure it? Why guys like RJ didn't have it? Is it just mental?
I think the Thunder are too professional and capable of an organization and would have Bonner fully scouted by now, and would play him the same way regardless of whether it's regular season or postseason. Just my belief. No way we can settle this one unless we talk to the Thunder.
I don't understand what you're saying. The effectiveness of changing offensive looks (as in sometimes playing a stretch 4, sometimes playing small, etc.) doesn't directly relate to an individual player's +/- performance.
That's all true, they do say that. That doesn't refute what I had posted, but perhaps you weren't trying to.
This experiment was a failure for a few minutes but no way Blair gets back near the top of the rotation. - it will be Splitter or small ball with both Jackson and Leonard in togehter at times. Matty was not effective tonight - however, he will contribute more than Blair who as he stopped being a rebounder lost what he needed to stay credible.
Exactly - and we've seen this the past few seasons. Bonner's shot routinely goes on vacation come playoff time. For a team, whose players have proven to be mentally tough, Bonner has always been the weak link in the chain.
If I were OKC head coach Scott Brooks, I'd continue rotating off Bonner until he can prove he's no longer the weak-minded, playoff choker that he's proven to be.
Hopefully Blair can score bonners minutes next game due to his history of playing well against the thunder. Will see. Bonner 0 points on 2 shots and 1 turnover in 11 minutes. Not a very big sample size but he sure did not make the most of those 11 minutes. Hopefully Blair can do better for us.
Blair needs to be selling shirts. He has no place on the floor in the WCF. At least Bonner doesn't flip the ball up over his shoulder or travel as soon as he touches it.
Bonner needs to be able to put the ball down and make a good pass or hit a mid range shot with consistency. So far he hasn't shown he is capable of that in a playoff setting. I'm much more confident Diaw can do all of the above, plus take it all the way to the rack.
Unfortunately, Bonner hasn't shown an ability to do any of that so far in the playoffs which is the reason he's been easily bottled up by OKC's perimeter defense. OKC at times is even getting by just using a point guard like Westbrook to lightly keep tabs on him on the perimeter, ala Memphis last year. Which brings up yet another of Bonner's warts, the inability to take advantage of a smaller mismatch. Which is yet another thing Diaw would be fully capable of.
Bonner just needs to be kept on a short leash and pulled out of the game quickly if he is choking, and thankfully Pop is finally doing that. Jackson is proving capable of being a great small ball 4 especially against a team like the thunder who like to go small with Durant @ the 4. The spurs' advantage when both teams go small lies in Tiago Splitter being able to exploit the thunder in the P&R and also in the paint. It may well be the key to winning this series.
I wouldn't mind taking a look at a Blair-Splitter frontline but not when the thunder go small w/ Durant @ the 4.
Have you checked his historic stats against the Thunder?
Even before we got Diaw and Jackson, I used to say that is exactly how Bonner should be used. Give him a heat check in every game ... if he's hot, give him more minutes ... if not, have a seat.
But now that we have Diaw and Jackson, they can both fill Bonner's role, and do it 10000000X better than Bonner ever will in the playoffs.
So we should use Diaw and Jackson to spread the floor, and Bonner should resume his rightful role as human victory cigar.
Well, I'll disagree here. During the regular season, Bonner was mostly checked by Collison. IIRC, last night, they were switching the pick and roll and Bonner would end up with a smaller guy with him, which was textbook of what Memphis did last season.
Sure it does. You walk in here calling people "dumb" because they don't "understand" that when Matty is on the floor, the Spurs are the most effective offensively (he's the king of plus-minus, thus the Spurs offense runs at it's peak of efficiency when he's out there). Yet, he has given up a substantial portion of his minutes to Diaw/Splitter now, and the Spurs not only have kept their scoring efficiency (more distributed among players, seeing Diaw isn't leading the +/- rankings), yet winning like they never have won while Matt (and Blair) had a leading role. And BTW, the "offensive look" isn't that much different, seeing Diaw also plays the stretch 4 role, he is just much more capable of also playing facilitator inside the paint too (multi-dimensional player).
It just goes at your contention that "shots are close to independent events". Apparently, they're not that independent. There's seemingly much more to shots than simple mechanics or opposing team mechanics (wide open vs contested). Don't know if it's measurable. But now we're getting into territory you already discussed with timvp a few months ago, and it's an area that it's just seem to be starting to get researched.
Spurs win and people are still lining up to crap on Bonner and Pop.
Lol
Quiz for everyone!:
Bonner is now 27 of 80 in the playoffs from 3, a 3P% of .338. How many of those misses would have to be makes for his postseason 3% to equal his career 3P% of .415 (641 of 1545)?
Answer in white:
6
Yes, just six shots brings him up to having one of the top playoff 3P%s of all time. It's almost like 80 shots isn't enough to tell you anything about whether he's "clutch" ?? No, let's not consider that obvious possibility, Bonner's terrible (but only in the playoffs!!1)
Yes. Means jack .
If I were Brooks, this is what I'd do:
1) leave Bonner wide open and double some one else because he'll choke (Pop's counter - don't play Bonner at all - use Diaw/SJax/Splitter
2) pressure Neal as he brings the ball up - Manu should be the PG and Neal the SG
3) hack-a-Splitter - Coach Chip needs to be practising free-throws with Tiago as much as possible.
"Do you know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? That's 25 hits...25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points...ok. There's 6 months in a season. That's about 25 weeks, that means if you get just one extra flair a week, just one. A gork, you get a ground ball, you get a ground ball with eyes! You get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you're in Yankee Stadium."Quiz for everyone!:
Bonner is now 27 of 80 in the playoffs from 3, a 3P% of .338. How many of those misses would have to be makes for his postseason 3% to equal his career 3P% of .415 (641 of 1545)?
Answer in white:
6
Yes, just six shots brings him up to having one of the top playoff 3P%s of all time. It's almost like 80 shots isn't enough to tell you anything about whether he's "clutch" ?? No, let's not consider that obvious possibility, Bonner's terrible (but only in the playoffs!!1)
--Kevin Costner, Bull Durham
Maybe it's just a small sample size, maybe it's just bad luck. But it hasn't just been this season. In the playoffs, Bonner always seems to come up that one dying quail short.
This.Thank you Brooks for closing the game with Ibaka on the bench
Playing Bonner or Kawhi or Jack at the 4 forced Brooks to choose between either Perkins or Ibaka. He was reluctant to put them both on the floor together against the 4 shooters the Spurs rolled out there most of the game.
The result: the Spurs had an easier time with penetration the rest of the game and less fear of getting their shot blocked. Especially with Duncan playing in the high post so much and pulling Perkins/Ibaka out with him.
???
Shooting .389 from 3P% this year, very respectable.
Last year, led the Spurs in win shares / 48.
People on this forum parrot the "Bonner is bad in the playoffs" nonsense they read, but if you look at the numbers, he's been very good these past two years. I think because he looks awkward on TV, it colors people's opinions. Ichiro's swing is one of the ugliest in MLB, but as long as the results are there, who cares how it looks?
You just pointed out one other problem with Matt... he doesn't shot enough 3s to be taken seriously as a treat... even when he goes 100% from 3, he rarely will score over 10 points, simply because he won't shoot more than four or five 3s (at the most)...Quiz for everyone!:
Bonner is now 27 of 80 in the playoffs from 3, a 3P% of .338. How many of those misses would have to be makes for his postseason 3% to equal his career 3P% of .415 (641 of 1545)?
Answer in white:
6
Yes, just six shots brings him up to having one of the top playoff 3P%s of all time. It's almost like 80 shots isn't enough to tell you anything about whether he's "clutch" ?? No, let's not consider that obvious possibility, Bonner's terrible (but only in the playoffs!!1)
So it's 10 points (at best) by Bonner, or opening the lanes for Parker/Manu and the paint for Tim... again, pretty easy to pick your poison here...
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