Tim Tebow

[Avante]

The 49ers won because the Saints defense crapped the bed late in the 4th quarter.

The Giants beat the Niners because of fumbles. Ok now what?

[Avante]

2011 Giants
2010 Packers
2009 Saints
2008 Steelers
2007 Giants
2006 Colts

The last 6 superbowl teams all have a common denominator. It isn't great defense, it isn't great special teams, and winning the turnover battle is a given. The common denominator is an elite QB and a passing game that could march down the field and get points at will. You don't seem to get it isn't the 80s or even early 2000s anymore. You're not gonna see a Trent Dilfer vs. Kerry Collins type superbowl anytime soon.

You might wanna do your homework. Look at Big Ben in 2008 and Eli in 2007. Tell me what you see.



Who did Peyton beat? Yep, Rex Grossman.
Eli beat the great Tom Brady twice!
Look at Kurt Warner in 2008 compared to Big Ben.

How many times did the best QB win those SB?

[Blake]

That confuses the out of you doesn't it? You don't have a clue how that is done do you?

naw, I just laugh at people that are so obviously full of .

that's you, RaZon.

[Avante]

naw, I just laugh at people that are so obviously full of .

that's you, RaZon.

I'll go real slow, do your best...ok?

When it comes to the NFL there are certain fundamentals all of us serious betters use. It starts with what role these teams are playing. They will be one of four things.

home fav
home dog
road fav
road dog

Historically speaking the best play is a small home dog. A team playing at home getting points. As a serious player it's your job to find out how these teams play in that weeks role. Yes that info is easy to find, if you know where to look.

Home and road and what "spot" a team is in that week are other things you use to get a feel for what is the right side. Remember you are dealing with a number, not who wins the game.

These teams have personalities, they have tendancies. You search those out. Some play great heading into a bye week, some suck, some play great coming off a bye, some suck. Some teams are terrible on the road, some are great at home. Just look at the NBA.

Since I don't have a job due to retirement I have all the time in the world to be a success at this. You do the homework you will win far more than you lose. Yes without spending the time and doing the work Joe Public stands no chance at all.

I will win 6/7 out of 10.

[Blake]

at this point, you actually have less cred on this board than Joe Public.

[TampaDude]

Since I don't have a job due to retirement I have all the time in the world to be a success at this. You do the homework you will win far more than you lose. Yes without spending the time and doing the work Joe Public stands no chance at all.

I will win 6/7 out of 10.

Translation: You don't have a job because you got fired from Dairy Queen for masturbating into the soft serve, and you spend your time trolling message boards from your parents' basement, while dreaming of actually being smart enough to not lose your entire allowance gambling on sports.

[Avante]

at this point, you actually have less cred on this board than Joe Public.

Flew right over your head didn't it? Totally clurless about the realities of sports wagering aren't you? Just some kid who watches football on TV

You do know that us grown ups do bet on football, right?

[Avante]

Translation: You don't have a job because you got fired from Dairy Queen for masturbating into the soft serve, and you spend your time trolling message boards from your parents' basement, while dreaming of actually being smart enough to not lose your entire allowance gambling on sports.

You don't even know how to do a translation right

[Avante]

Will somebody please take some time and actually bone up on this stuff before posting? Do some homework for Christ's sake. Very disappointed with the level of...DUH!...I see here.

Look at what kind of season Eli Manning had the first time he won a SB, he was an elite QB? No he beat an elite QB. Big Ben ws an elite QB when he won his first SB? no he wasn't.

So many here totally clueless.

[Blake]

Flew right over your head didn't it? Totally clurless about the realities of sports wagering aren't you? Just some kid who watches football on TV

You do know that us grown ups do bet on football, right?

you are full of until proven otherwise.

It's that simple.

[Avante]

you are full of until proven otherwise.

It's that simple.

I would need to lie about that? Why? So I know all that stuff about how to pick a winner yet I don't gamble...hahaha!!!!!! Why would anyone know about how these teams perform vs the spread on a Monday night as a road dog if they didn't gamble? Well?

Why do I buy the Marc Lawrence betting guide every year, to look at the pictures

I've never seen anyone so out of it as you are. You really don't understand anything I'm talking about do you? There are gamblers.

You will have a phone number, sometime before a game you will make a call. Somebody you don't know will answer. You simply say...

I'll play a dime on...

Chicago plus
Denver plus
I'll lay with Green Bay

You will have that read back to you, where you say...right.

If you win you will pick your money up at a local bar, if you lose you will leave the money at the bar. You play 110 to win a 100 that 10 is known as the vigorish or the juice. The bookmaker pockets the juice.

A betting line is designed to get 50/50 action. So the house can use the winning to pay out the losing.

I just know all that so I act like I'm a gambler

Blake, you really do need to get out more.

[johnsmith]

So I know all that stuff about how to pick a winner yet I don't gamble...hahaha!!!!!! Why would anyone know about how these teams perform vs the spread on a Monday night as a road dog if they didn't gamble? Well?

.

[johnsmith]

I mean, you would have to be a professional gambler living the life in Vegas to know that this stuff is important.

They made that movie with Pacino and McConaughey about you didnt they?

[Blake]

I would need to lie about that? Why?

You don't need to lie. You just like to lie.

It's ok though. You aren't the first internets liar and you definitely won't be the last.

So I know all that stuff about how to pick a winner yet I don't gamble...hahaha!!!!!! Why would anyone know about how these teams perform vs the spread on a Monday night as a road dog if they didn't gamble? Well?

Why do I buy the Marc Lawrence betting guide every year, to look at the pictures

I've never seen anyone so out of it as you are. You really don't understand anything I'm talking about do you? There are gamblers.

You will have a phone number, sometime before a game you will make a call. Somebody you don't know will answer. You simply say...

I'll play a dime on...

Chicago plus
Denver plus
I'll lay with Green Bay

You will have that read back to you, where you say...right.

If you win you will pick your money up at a local bar, if you lose you will leave the money at the bar. You play 110 to win a 100 that 10 is known as the vigorish or the juice. The bookmaker pockets the juice.

A betting line is designed to get 50/50 action. So the house can use the winning to pay out the losing.

I just know all that so I act like I'm a gambler

Blake, you really do need to get out more.

For all I know, you copy and pasted all of that from someone else.

If you want cred, you have to show results.

It's really that simple.

[Avante]

You don't need to lie. You just like to lie.

It's ok though. You aren't the first internets liar and you definitely won't be the last.




For all I know, you copy and pasted all of that from someone else.

If you want cred, you have to show results.

It's really that simple.

Why am I even talking about this Blake? I just picked sports wagering to lie about? That makes sense to you? Dude, why do you struggle with this so? You do know about sports wagering don't you? You do know that tons of us football fans do bet on the games...right? Yet I wouldn't, why would you or anyone think that? Why wouldn't I bet on football games...well?

Dude, I don't lie.

I started betting back in high school, yep took a beating for a few years before I learned why I was losing.

[Blake]

Why am I even talking about this Blake?

I'm not sure. Why are you talking about this?

Dude, I don't lie.

That's a lie.

I started betting back in high school, yep took a beating for a few years before I learned why I was losing.

you're still losing, tbh

[Avante]

I'm not sure. Why are you talking about this?



That's a lie.



you're still losing, tbh

I'm trying to share an aspect of the sport few really understand is why I'm talking about it. Yes there really is a method to winning $$$$ betting the NFL. Yes there are fundamentals, stats and trends that do work. You are a great example of a young kid who really can't fathom any of that. To you it's all voodoo majiks. You just can't wrap your brain around the fact that anyone can break these games down and by using mere odds and %'s can make $$$$$$$. It's mind boogling to you because you know nothing about it.

I don't lie Blake, I also no longer lose.

You will have find 3-5 plays a week where one side has a ton of reasons of why they should cover the spread or not. You search these "spots" out. When you find those best 3/5 plays (never play an even amount of games for obvious reasons) what are the odds of most of them losing for you in one week?

Blake if you have some need to just be a pest while in hiding..ok. But don't think I have any reasons to come on here lying about something a lot of people do. You don't know any serious football bettors?

[Blake]

I'm trying to share an aspect of the sport few really understand is why I'm talking about it. Yes there really is a method to winning $$$$ betting the NFL. Yes there are fundamentals, stats and trends that do work. You are a great example of a young kid who really can't fathom any of that. To you it's all voodoo majiks. You just can't wrap your brain around the fact that anyone can break these games down and by using mere odds and %'s can make $$$$$$$. It's mind boogling to you because you know nothing about it.

Bull .

If you were really here to share, you would share your picks in the upcoming season.

But you won't because you are a lying pussy.

I don't lie Blake, I also no longer lose.

Restating the same lie doesn't make it true.

And you are still a loser.

Blake if you have some need to just be a pest while in hiding..ok. But don't think I have any reasons to come on here lying about something a lot of people do. You don't know any serious football bettors?

All I know is that you are full of until you put up.

Simple.

[Avante]

I mean, you would have to be a professional gambler living the life in Vegas to know that this stuff is important.

They made that movie with Pacino and McConaughey about you didnt they?

All you need is a phone number and know somebody who knows somebody. Vegas has nothing to do with it.

As we saw in the movie if someone does the homework they can beat the spread. It cannot be done without knowing what to look for and study. Yep, a science.

[Avante]

Bull .

If you were really here to share, you would share your picks in the upcoming season.

But you won't because you are a lying pussy.



Restating the same lie doesn't make it true.

And you are still a loser.



All I know is that you are full of until you put up.

Simple.

How about me and you go head to head? I'm saying you don't know about anything having to do with the NFL. So far you've proven that.

You pick three games vs the spread and so will I. After a few weeks you'll start to figure out how wrong you are. You got balls?

I don't lie. I will win about 70% of the time. In a few days (probably Tuesday) I'll pick up my 2012 Marc Lawrence Playbook. It has everything guys like me need. Every stat/trend there is. Now tell me Blake why am I spending about 10 bucks on a magazine on gambling?


http://playbook.com/


Let's look at week one. What three games stand out from a betting perspective?

I only see two that grab me.

Indy at Chicago
St.Louis at Detroit

Indy was 0-8 on the road in 2011, Chicago 5-3 at home. A rookie QB on the road, not good.
St.Louis was 1-7 on the road, Detroit 5-3

Right there alone we have a 10-6 vs 1-15 trend favoring the home teams. I don't care what the spread is the home teams are the play. Now I need one more game....hmmm?

As we know both the Bears and Lions should be in the wildcard hunt, that can't be said about the Colts and Rams. There is no reason at all not to pull the trigger and lay the points in this early season "spot".

You look for trends like that 1-15.

Kicking your ass is gonna be fun

[Bill_Brasky]

I heard razon likes men

[Blake]

How about me and you go head to head? I'm saying you don't know about anything having to do with the NFL. So far you've proven that.

You pick three games vs the spread and so will I. After a few weeks you'll start to figure out how wrong you are. You got balls?

So we pick 3 games each week vs the spread? Sounds good. Be sure to be back here for week 1 with your picks.

I don't lie. I will win about 70% of the time. In a few days (probably Tuesday) I'll pick up my 2012 Marc Lawrence Playbook. It has everything guys like me need. Every stat/trend there is. Now tell me Blake why am I spending about 10 bucks on a magazine on gambling?


http://playbook.com/

because you couldn't afford the $11 magazine?

Let's look at week one. What three games stand out from a betting perspective?

I only see two that grab me.

Indy at Chicago
St.Louis at Detroit

Indy was 0-8 on the road in 2011, Chicago 5-3 at home. A rookie QB on the road, not good.
St.Louis was 1-7 on the road, Detroit 5-3

Right there alone we have a 10-6 vs 1-15 trend favoring the home teams. I don't care what the spread is the home teams are the play. Now I need one more game....hmmm?

As we know both the Bears and Lions should be in the wildcard hunt, that can't be said about the Colts and Rams. There is no reason at all not to pull the trigger and lay the points in this early season "spot".

You look for trends like that 1-15.

Kicking your ass is gonna be fun

Neat.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

rofl it's gonna be funny if RaZon is posting during the regular season and never posts picks

[Blake]

rofl it's gonna be funny if RaZon is posting during the regular season and never posts picks

17 weeks x 3 picks =51

What are the odds that RaZon actually posts all 51 picks, let alone hit on 70% of them

[TE]

lol RaZon/Avante