Championship Odds

[pgardn]

Which site is still giving 9-1??? I'll take those odds, rest of Vegas is at 7-1

It was an online site from Europe but I cannot remember which one. The nice value was probably due to the fact that you have to start an account which you are charged for.

Anyways its long gone as are the 7-1...

[jestersmash]

Didn't see if this was mentioned yet, but here's another neat little website for you guys to check out -

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/seri...-antonio-spurs

Be sure to click on "Get the Complete Series Details" for additional information.

There are articles (to the left) describing the method and commenting on the historical accuracy of the predictions as well.

[Seventyniner]

Accuscore update (prior to game 6 of LAC/MEM and game 7 of LAL/DEN):

Spurs chance to win 2nd round: 76.92% (-333)
Spurs chance to win WCF: 41.32% (+142)
Spurs chance to win le: 24.90% (+301)

Again, implied money lines are in parentheses. The Spurs WCF/ le chances have gone down because the Mavs (spectacularly) failed to knock off the Spurs' toughest compe ion.

Also, the chances OKC wins the le are 28.28%, for an implied money line of +254. That +400 line tells me that hardly anyone is betting on the Thunder. Conversely, Accurscore pegs Miami's le chances around 32.1%, for an implied money line of +212. There's definitely heavy money on the Heat.

SA beats Miami 53/47, and OKC beats Miami 52/48, but Miami's le chances are better because they'd only have to beat at most one of SA and OKC.

[timvp]

Bump.

With the playoffs about to start, I'll go ahead and update these numbers. Since more time has past, I'd lower San Antonio's chances of suffering a debilitating injury from 50% to 40%. The Spurs also got a good bracket draw so I'll raise their chances of winning in the first round to 95% and in the second round to 70%.

Staying healthy for the next two months: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 95%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 70%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

So, that's basically an 11% chance to win the championship. Long odds but considering how unlikely a championship appeared to be at the beginning of the season, I'll definitely take it.

Update:

The Spurs survived one round so their chances of staying healthy improved by 1/4th. I like this draw against the Clippers and give the Spurs a very good chance of advancing. However, the Thunder looked damn good against the Mavs so I'm going to lower their WCF odds slightly.

Staying healthy for the next two months: 70%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 90%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 52%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

That bumps the Spurs odds of winning the championship up to ~16.4%. Not bad.

Hopefully the Spurs can make quick work of the Clippers and stay healthy. Oh, and hopefully the Thunder vs. Lakers is a bloodbath in which both teams expose flaws of the other team.

[therealtruth]

hopefully the Thunder vs. Lakers is a bloodbath in which both teams expose flaws of the other team.

I see the Thunder treating the Lakers like the Mavs.

[TwoHandJam]

BUMP.

I'm interested to see where we stand timvp. Forget about looking after the kids, this is important.

[Jimcs50]

Betting odds.

On April 1st, I bet $100 to win $400 for Spurs to win the West.

I wagered $100 to win $1000 for them to win the NBA championship.

I think those are fantastic odds.

If Spurs play in playoffs like they have been playing the last month, I think they should be favorites to win West and at worst a 2-1 dog against Chicago or Miami.

I am feeling pretty pretty pretty good about this wager....my bookie is very nervous.

[TwoHandJam]

bump.

I'm interested to see where we stand timvp. Forget about looking after the kids, this is important.

bump!

[timvp]

Here are some postmortem odds:

Heading into the WCF, I would have given the Spurs a 55% to win that series and probably a 60% chance to win the Finals. Add in the 10% chance of suffering a debilitating injury and the Spurs' chances were 29.7%.

After going up 2-0, the Spurs' chances probably bumped up to about 80%. Historically it's higher but with as well the Thunder rallied in those first two games, it was pretty obvious that they had a chance of rallying. So up 2-0, the Spurs' chances of winning a championship were a season-high 43.2%.

Heading into Game 5, the chances really started plummeting. The chances of winning the WCF was probably down to about 53% and the chances of winning the Finals was probably the same number (due to the shortened rotation and the increased leaning on the Big 3). As Game 5 tipped off, the odds were at about 25.3%.

On one hand, the Spurs never really had a better than a coinflip shot of winning the championship.

But what makes it so tough to stomach is that their chances were like 1% not that long ago. , when I started this thread, they were less than 10%. To get all the way up to >40% to see it plummet to zero hurts.

Damn

[therealtruth]

But what makes it so tough to stomach is that their chances were like 1% not that long ago. , when I started this thread, they were less than 10%. To get all the way up to >40% to see it plummet to zero hurts.

What's frustrating for me is the Spurs stopped believing in the pass and playing as a team. It's ironic that was the perception of OKC. OKC eventually learned from watching us play in games 1 and 2 and played Spurs ball while the Spurs started playing individual ball and relying more on the individual strengths of the big 3. You can claim the role players shrunk but they should know in the playoffs they need to be able to counter that by taking a few dribbles and hitting a jumpshot. That maintains the offensive rhythm and keeps the defense honest.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I still think the $100@15-1, and [email protected] bets I made late in March were the best bets I've ever placed.

If Ibaka/Perkins/Collison hadn't hit 22/25, I'm pretty sure we would've won in 5, but it wasn't to be.

[therealtruth]

I still think the $100@15-1, and [email protected] bets I made late in March were the best bets I've ever placed.

If Ibaka/Perkins/Collison hadn't hit 22/25, I'm pretty sure we would've won in 5, but it wasn't to be.

You can't base your defense on guys who are good shooters not hitting wide open jumpshots.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

You can't base your defense on guys who are good shooters not hitting wide open jumpshots.

Huh? Our D is set up to do exactly that - stop layups and 3s, give up long jumpers. Perkins is not a good shooter, nor Ibaka (although he improved a lot this year).

22/25 is 88%. How many times will 3 average outside shooting bigs shoot 88% on 25 shots? Not very ing often! And then Durant scored 16 in the 4th.

Game 4 was a massive outlier, but unfortunately it kick-started OKC's belief in each other, and since they found that they've been a buzzsaw at both ends.