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Thanks for posting good read.
Draft loaded with potential star bigs
Talented big men are available in the 2012 draft, but they carry great risk
Updated: June 14, 2012, 5:08 PM ET
By Ric Bucher | ESPN the Magazine
So your team needs a big man. You have dreams of one that could be the next Dwight Howard, and your team is not the New Orleans Hornets. Who should you be pulling for your favorite NBA braintrust to select in the 2012 NBA draft?
A canvass of NBA personnel preparing for the draft produced a group of candidates and accompanying reactions that reflect both what a mixed bag this year's crop of big men are -- after No. 1 pick Anthony Davis, that is -- and how swingman-strong this draft is.
No GM would guarantee that any one of the following three big men is a lock even to be an All-Star, much less a cornerstone player of Howard's ilk. The combination of so many lottery teams already having a solid big man and a looming cap crunch that will coax teams to play it safer in the draft -- it being too expensive to sign a role-playing veteran to do what a solid draft pick could at the rookie salary scale -- means the first big man (after Davis) may not be taken until the bottom half of the lottery.
All that said, remember all the questions about DeMarcus Cousins that resulted in him sliding to fifth two years ago? How many teams would love to rethink that one? Or Amare Stoudemire, who may be a financial burden with bad knees now but was a gold-mine pick at No. 9 in 2002. The point being, there's reason to dream big, no matter how checkered the choices might appear. So, if your team needs size and you're good with it gambling a high draft choice for a shot at something special, this is the high-risk/high-reward order:
Andre Drummond, center, Connecticut
It's been forgotten that at one point last summer Drummond was supposed to challenge Davis for top-pick status. Then, UConn went 20-14 and was quickly dispatched from the NCAA tournament by Iowa State, as Drummond mustered just two points and three rebounds (and four blocked shots) in 26 minutes. If Drummond has some in the NBA believing he could still live up to the early hype, it's a combination of what he did in high school -- leading his team to the 2011 national prep le -- and the cir stances surrounding the Huskies' program this season. Not only did coach Jim Calhoun miss extended time due to illness, but as one Eastern Conference executive noted, "He played with two crazy point guards who didn't always pass the ball," referring to Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright.
Idan Ravin, the private player development coach known as the "Hoops Whisperer," has been working with Drummond since he declared for the draft. Ravin said he chose to work with Drummond because he believes he is much better than he had the chance to show in the Huskies' system.
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ESPN the Magazine's Ric Bucher sits down with Idan Ravin, the "Hoops Whisperer" who is working with UConn big man Andre Drummond. Listen here.
Dominating in today's NBA requires a particular size and athleticism, arguably more than ever before. There's just no way around competing in a game that is increasingly played at a faster tempo with more direct-line attacks at the basket. If a big doesn't have the requisite length to protect the rim and the agility to show and recover on pick-and-rolls, it's practically impossible to keep him on the floor when it matters most. It's why once-stocky centers, such as Roy Hibbert and Kendrick Perkins, have slimmed down so dramatically. Drummond already has vowed to drop 20 pounds off his 7-foot frame. Even at 279 pounds, though, his agility and sprint speed were eye-catching at the draft combine.
"He has the most potential and the most risk," says the Eastern Conference executive. "He has big hands, and that's usually a good sign for a big man who you look to make athletic plays above the rim. But he never put together an entire game at UConn where he looked like a top pick. Whether he becomes Howard or Kwame Brown will depend on whether he can develop consistency in dominating with his athleticism the way Dwight does."
Meyers Leonard, center, Illinois
He's the opposite of Drummond, in that he was projected as a late first-round pick last summer and has moved up the draft chart as other big men were eliminated from NBA draft boards. Like Drummond, he has been discounted because his school had a lackluster season (17-15) and coaching issues (Bruce Weber was fired). But one NBA draft scout tagged him as "the sleeper of the draft," perhaps in more ways than one.
[+] EnlargeMeyers Leonard
Ben Woloszyn/US PresswireMeyers Leonard could be the steal of the draft.
The first, of course, being that he hasn't received anywhere near the attention of nearly a half-dozen other draft-eligible post players. The second is that Leonard seems to be dozing on his own potential. His offensive arsenal is far better than Drummond's, and he plays harder.
"He's a guy who has all the tools and a good upside, but I don't even think he sees himself that way," the scout said. "He's going to have to get his feet wet and then he'll realize, 'I can play with these guys.' He has a low-post and a face-up game and I believe he can pass out of double teams once he develops enough to command them."
But there's equal concern about how a lottery-quality big man could allow his team to lose 12 of its last 14 games, and the fact that he didn't dominate a single game from start to finish in top-pick fashion. Not having demonstrated in high school that he could dominate on a national level puts him behind Drummond on the dice-rolling list, even though scouts lauded his effort level as being consistently higher.
Thomas Robinson, forward, Kansas
The risk in Robinson becoming a low-block force is not with his effort but his size. He actually surprised some NBA executives by measuring as big as he did -- 6-9, 244 -- but it still makes him like David West without the requisite jump-shooting range. "He's going to be a small 4," said one scout.
Scouts say that the Jayhawks, nevertheless, ran much of their offense through him, but at the pro level he is going to have to adjust to being more of an "effort and hustle" player, at least initially, because he has considerable work to do to develop the requisite tools. His sprinting speed is excellent, but it has to be a concern that he was significantly slower in the agility test than both Leonard and Drummond.
Robinson pointing out that his college stats were better than Davis' and that he should be in the running for the top pick doesn't ease concerns about how he expects to be used in the NBA. "Can he make that transition back to making effort plays after having the ball so much at Kansas?" one executive said. "That's the question. He's not ready for you to play through him at the NBA level."
Surprisingly, no GM, scout or executive put North Carolina's Tyler Zeller among their top three as a potential cornerstone big man. Most believe he could very well come into the league and initially be more effective than Drummond, Leonard and Robinson, but that he is much closer to his peak ability right now than any of them. "He is what he is," said the scout. "A quicker version of Spencer Hawes."
That makes Zeller a safer bet -- but this list is not about that. It's about betting it all on potential and, in time, watching all the question marks about your high-risk pick turn into All-Star appearances, not regret.
Thanks for posting good read.
Drummond is interesting cuz he such a wild card I think he will be as good as the team he goes to. Meaning if he has good coaches/mentors he could turn into something special.
Thanks for the post!
As a Uconn fan who resides in CT I can tell you if the spurs can get Drummond they should pull the trigger. He plays physical, finishes with authority in the paint. His rebounding could be better given his size but given his motor that should improve. But the one thing he does well and will help a team like the spurs is he blocks and alters shots consistently with conviction. He is athletic also and will be an instant upgrade defensively over our soft bigs not named duncan. This guy will fare well given the right coaching.
Here's a little secret most people don't know: a player's motor never improves. If he drifted through HS and one year of college, he'll drift through the NBA. AD will be the next Michael Olowokandi. You heard it here first.
I don't see how we can get Drummond since he may go as high as 2 to Charlotte. The guy I would like to get is Leonard. He is big and very athletic for a guy his size. If the choice is between Splitter and Leonard, I may roll the dice on Leonard since he is younger and has the better offensive tools. I think we have the assets, Splitter, Neal & Bonner to get a late lottery pick and steal Leonard. Also, under the tutelage of Ducan and Pop, he should develope into a solid big man.
A little disappointed with the read. When they said "loaded" I assumed it was going to be an article displaying multiple bigs that have potential like John Henson, Fab Melo, Jarred Sullinger, etc. Instead they just listed a bunch of top 10 lottery-worthy bigs.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
Why couldn't the Spurs just have both?
If the Spurs could get Andre Drummond AND Myers Leonard, then RC Buford deserves the EOY for that alone.....it's next to impossible to pull that off.
I think the Spurs have a great environment for hard working players to avoid distractions and improve if they themselves decide to work hard and improve ...but I don't think Pop is anything special at developing big men. Or players for that matter. He hasn't done with Splitter and he's pampered Bonner over the years. Pop is great at dealing with mature adults but I don't think he's good at developing young, immature players. He doesn't have the patience for it. SJax was the exception, and that's more a testament to his innate talent and work ethic.
I agree. Pop is an immature coach who doesn't have patience.
Drummond defines the term soft big. I watched the guy's games in HS and figured his motor was just lousy because he was usually playing against garbage teams, but at UConn against real compe ion it was the exact same thing (though I guess it should have set off a red flag when I saw him being lazy going up against Nerlens Noel and Tilton in a game his senior year). And what happened to Drummond's passing skills? In HS the guy looked like he had Webber or Divac potential in that area, but in college I never saw the guy make a smart pass. Trading for Drummond would be one of the worst things this team could do.
Tony Parker? Malik Rose?
He has the tools for defense baseline. Im not saying he will be an all star but he will surely shore up our pathetic interior defense.
I thought the Spurs traded away their first round draft pick. How is this supposed to help?
The only big I want us to make a move for is Henson. Dude is athletic, long and is great on defense. He could use some size but I think he'd fit right in here.
I wouldn't exactly agree with that. He's very mature.
As I said, "I think the Spurs have a great environment for hard working players to avoid distractions and improve if they themselves decide to work hard and improve ...". I give the players credit for improving. As I also said, I give Pop credit for creating an environment, which is important, but I don't see Pop turning around any wayward players into a more positive direction. I think Parker, and even Malik, became the players they did because that's what they were going to do no matter where they went. I'm sure someone could make an argument that Pop's handling of Tony stifled his development just as much as he helped nurture it. Sometimes Pop's development of a player is realizing to loosen his insistence on his structure and let the player play to their strengths and not just be cogs in a wheel. He eventually learned to get out of Manu's way and Manu thrived because of it.
I think Pop is a realistic coach who knows he wouldn't be able to deal with an Andre Drummond type.
Drummond imo still has tons of potential and could not have entered a worse situation at UCONN. He had a coach on medical leave half the time, no internal leadership from the team, and a situation where he wasn't gonna get much of an opportunity to develop/get touches. Whichever team drafts him is a team that better be willing to punt the next 2 years in exchange for development and a deliberate effort to force Drummond into a role. Any team in win now mode or close to it should stay away from Drummond.
As a Syracuse fan, I can tell you with certainty that Drummond sucks.
He has the tools for a lot more than that. If you could surgically implant Kidd-Gilchrist's heart into Drummond you'd be looking at a first ballot Hall of Famer and multiple MVP winner. He should easily be the best bigman since Howard, , maybe the best bigman since Duncan. But he doesn't play hard and it doesn't look like he watches any film either with how lost he looks on the floor all the time. To get Drummond would cost Parker and that's complete lunacy.
And even for teams willing to make that kind of investment, there's still no guarantee on things like his motor.
This is the kind of high-reward guy I could see the Lakers taking a flyer on if they have a way to get that high in the draft. He's also the kind of guy I could easily see ending up in the wrong place and being the next Thabeet or something like that.
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