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What do you think he was holding?
Went to Vegas this weekend for my annual WSOP tourney(played in 1500 buyin) Got busted out in 4th level with two suckouts on river within 20 mins of each other. Oh well, that's poker.
Here is my question:
I was playing at my hotel poker room(Venetian) Sunday. I won $1360 on Sat night, so was feeling pretty good Sunday.
I play in the 2-5 NL holdem game. I lost my first buy-in($400) on a huge draw that missed(open ended straight flush draw). I reloaded for $1000. I got my stack up to $1900, so was up $500 at the time of this situation:
This player who was playing with with me all day was getting pretty drunk, and three times that day, he went all in preflop with AA, AA, and QQ, only winning minimum pots, so he was just a so-so player at best.
Anyway, there was a straddle, so it was $10 to go. He was in middle position, and he makes it $45, the player to my right (a pro from Holland) calls, I look down at 8 6c, so I call on button, because I'm putting him on Queens or Kings.
Flop:
8 6 5
I am turning cartwheels in my head.
To my surprise, he moves all in for $1130.00
The pro folds.
Now I go into the tank. I go through all the hands that are possible given my previous info on player and the fact that he raised in pretty early position to $45. My first instinct is big pair(10s, Js, Qs) and he is trying to chase away drawers.
I think of hands that beat me, 88, 66 or 55, I pretty much eliminate 88 and 66, just because I have both of those cards, so 55 is possible.
I ask myself if I had raised to $45 and flopped a set, I would probably try to look like I had an over pair or AK, and bet probably about $90, and hope someone would call or even raise with a draw or two pair.
Now I only have $45 invested so do I want to risk $1130 on a call?
What would you guys put him on, and what would you do in this situation?
What do you think he was holding?
I'm thinking being drunk he raised with crap pre flop and got lucky as with his 7-9 suited
Not enough info on how he plays but if its a rainbow flop really the only 3 things you should be worried about are the sets which are even more unlikely since you have top two. Then again, if you're going to fold with top two then you probably shouldn't call preflop.
My first instinct is that a fold here is weak. You should probably know what you're going to do in this situation before you even call though. You're ahead of everything except a flopped flush, straight, or set. The sets are unlikely, the straights even more unlikely unless he's loose (in which case his range probably opens up enough to call anyway), and I don't have info on a flush. AKs on a flush draw is a possibility too.
Don't know, my first instinct to call but then I saw how much you had behind and I thought I'd probably fold but then I thought back to call. I probably need to know how he plays. Most 2-5 players are garbage but I can't just know that for sure with this guy.
Good hand to post though, Jim. I haven't "thought poker" in a while (when I go to the casinos here I pretty much play very tight and very straight forward because its easy money) so its nice to think about it a bit again.
Rainbow flop, so flush draw is out of question.
The 2-5 game at Venetian is probably 25% pros. I had 4 of them at my table.
As I said, the only three times, he went all in either preflop or on flop he had AA or QQ. He flopped a nut flush once and stacked me on that hand I had open ended straight flush draw, he checked the flop and just called my bet and another call. He moved all in on turn that hand, not flop.
You have to call. If you go in pre-flop with garb and you hit top 2, there is no other option IMO.
^
Yeah, unless a pair was flopped (for an obvious set, depending on the player's bet), you can't fold.
^
Yeah, unless a pair was flopped (for an obvious set, depending on the player's bet), you can't fold.
Since you're playing NL, you have to call imo.
What he has is irrelevant. He probably had an 8 5, flopped top pair, didn't put you on it and got a full boat on the turn or river.
And you didn't fold, else you wouldn't know what he had and probably wouldn't start a thread over a small button call.
This.
You said the other times he bet all in preflop he had big pairs. But he didn't go all in preflop in this situation so I'm thinking like you he had a medium pair 88 to JJ or ace with a relatively strong kicker. I'd personally eliminate the possibility he raised preflop on crap and caught a straight even with the all in call. I'd still put him at something like JJ or 1010 or ace with a decent kicker (above top card on the flop, 8).
I'd probably have folded though because where your money was at losing $45 doesn't seem that bad.
Hands he might have that you beat:
AA-JJ (Maybe TT and 99)
Hands you're losing to
88,66,55 Don't really see much else in his range that you're behind on a preflop raise. I suppose there's a chance that he has 79 but I find that extremely unlikely.
88 and 66 are less likely due to your hand but they are possible so you can't eliminate them from the range. Judging by that range you should call. I think its closer, though. I'm too lazy to do the odds, but with you're calling ~950 to win 1100 so if you can win 50ish percent of the time the call is fine.
For me this would really depend on the player, but I probably end up calling most of the time.
Now I'm thinking he raised preflop with A8 and saw he caught his kicker pair as the top card on the flop. You called and he caught an ace on the turn or river.
I called.
Wish I had folded
He raised $45 with 4-7 offsuit, and the 8 6 5 flop gave him the 2nd nuts.
I still had 4 outs, but no 6 no miracle 8 came on turn and river, I was toast.
The guy just jumped up and celebrated like he won the WSOP, and danced around holding up all my hundred dollar bills and shaking them in the air. I felt like an idiot.
How did he know some donkey like myself would call off $1130 0f he stack, that is why I am asking. I would have tried to get some value(Oh he got value all right) and bet 50% of the pot. That is why I did not put him on straight.
So I asked the two pros sitting right next to me(on my left and right) what I should have done, and they both say I should have folded. I only had $45 invested, so the risk was too great for the information that I had at my disposal.
I guess that is why I do not play poker for a living.
I have so much to learn
The amount you have in the pot is irrelevant. The size of the pot compared to your next bet is what matters. If everyone had called around the table you would still only have 45 dollars invested but you'd be staring at a much better situation.
They might have advised a fold based on the way he was playing (the information given on the other player really thin) but to say based on what you had in the pot is bad. If he had been raising the kind of hands that put 47 in his range then making a fold is a better option but if his range was actually closer to what I listed above then you don't need to fold.
If you really want to learn something, learn not to base your play off results. You think you should have folded in that situation and maybe you should have. However, you should not have folded based on the outcome of this hand, you should have folded only if the range of hands your opponent could have on that push is a range you do not beat ~60% of the time. If you win about that percentage of the time then you'll still make money on the hand. But you will still LOSE ~40% of the time. Making proper decisions in poker has nothing to do with winning or lose on one particular hand but rather how you do in the long run.
PS I overbet the out of pots live. The people at the live games here play terribly and call a lot. If I have the nuts on the flop, I try to get as much money in on the flop as possible (I'm not pushing like your villan but I am not betting 50% of the pot either. I'm over betting that pot).
Hey Jim you ever read Caro's book of Poker Tells?
I couldn't care less about tells when I played online but I read the book anyway and its actually pretty good against the average person in a live game. The simple stuff, anyway (the quick glances at chip stacks is SO good, IMO).
Last edited by MannyIsGod; 06-20-2012 at 09:07 AM.
I was somewhat right, I had him on 7-9 suited. It's easy to say fold after the fact, but like you said, the guy was drunk, he was all over the place. I had AA cracked at the game I play at here in Dallas and lost all my stack too.I called.
Wish I had folded
He raised $45 with 4-7 offsuit, and the 8 6 5 flop gave him the 2nd nuts.
I still had 4 outs, but no 6 no miracle 8 came on turn and river, I was toast.
The guy just jumped up and celebrated like he won the WSOP, and danced around holding up all my hundred dollar bills and shaking them in the air. I felt like an idiot.
How did he know some donkey like myself would call off $1130 0f he stack, that is why I am asking. I would have tried to get some value(Oh he got value all right) and bet 50% of the pot. That is why I did not put him on straight.
So I asked the two pros sitting right next to me(on my left and right) what I should have done, and they both say I should have folded. I only had $45 invested, so the risk was too great for the information that I had at my disposal.
I guess that is why I do not play poker for a living.
I have so much to learn
I was in the big blind and got Pocket Aces. There were 4 limpers and then on the button, this idiot raises 25. Small blind folds and I call. The 4 limpers all fold as well. The flop comes out 7-8-10 and I lead out with a 35 dollar bet and he goes all in which was about $425. I thought about it for about 2 seconds and called and he turns over 6-9 offsuit. Of course the other donkey's are praising him with the "nice hand" bull . I tried to give him some credit by saying thats why it pays to gamble on the button and he said he only played it because it was 69. ing bag.
I hate to tell you this but thats actually pretty damn good from your opponent. He played it pretty well against you. You're in a 6 handed pot OOP with AA facing a late position raise and you don't raise pf? That is the definition of terrible play.
Yeah, I thought about it afterwards whether I should have folded. The only hand I really had him on was maybe 9-J. The guy got lucky to hit his flop, I just ended up paying him off.
I hate to tell you this but thats actually pretty damn good from your opponent. He played it pretty well against you.
spurindallas,
where do you play? please invite me.
I'll send you a PM with the details. Where in DFW do you live?
jimcs thats a tough spot to be in. but im not surprised you made the call. the results were bad but thiking through the hand logicially its pretty hard to put him on a nut hand or set there. For such a huge amount of money with only $45 invested I probably fold there I've just seen too many sick situations to make a hero call like that for $1000. I would be looking for a better situation to get my money in.
Not sure why this is funny
There's a reason you're a waitress.
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