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think progress
think progress
think progress
George Will, in all his towering, unbiased intellectual honesty, says about 4000+ heat records being broken recently: "It's just summer. Get over it"
In the off chance that they forego their own analysis and instead, use actual qualified studies, then they can produce a quality article. It's about 1 in 16 million tho.
If it looks like and smells like , it's probably .
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2012...heat-wave-not/
Manny already bit hard on this yesterday
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost...postcount=1072
Good link, Darrin. Those are some valid points about how the unlikelyhood is overestimated through those methods.
That being said, the new numbers still show how incredibly unlikely the situation is so when taken in the proper context I think every point that was made about how anomalous the recent string of hot months is will stand.
Update Wow! I didn’t realize the US temperatures had such low serial auto-correlation! I obtained data for the lower 48 states here:
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp
Based on this, the lag 1 autocorrelation is R=.150, which is much lower than R=0.936. So ‘white noise’ isn’t such a bad model. I am getting a probability less than 1 in 100,000. I have to run the script longer to get the correct value!
So yeah, while less than 1 in 100,000 isn't exactly 1 in 16 million, it still is a very very very rare event and really still makes every point that was being made based on the previous number. The chances of Darrin pointing that out? Probably lower than both of those figures.
Who bit on what, Darrin?
Update: I said if I found temperature for the lower 48 I’d run them. I did and it totally revised my conclusions. It seems white noise isn’t such a bad assumption for temperatures in the lower 48, and the probability of the recent event really is quite low. I revised at the end!
Bring it on!
I wish it was warmer here in the Willamette Valley and less humid. We have has far too much rain, far less heat, but the humidity from the rain is rough to deal with.
Interesting analysis
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/1...le/#more-67235
Finally, the sting in the end of the tale. With 1374 contiguous 13-month periods and a Poisson distribution, the number of periods with 13 winners that we would expect to find is 2.6 … so in fact, far from Jeff Masters claim that finding 13 in the top third is a one in a million chance, my results show finding only one case with all thirteen in the top third is actually below the number that we would expect given the size and the nature of the dataset …
Lets wait for Agloco to post how heat helps the immune system fight Cancer before we comment further.
Good point.
chance of dumb rednecks giving a , zero
Jesus you couldn't be more of a hack if you tried. You post some "good analysis" then you just ignore it when she all of a sudden comes to a similar conclusion as the original conclusion you were against and instead go find something new to hang your hat on.
Its about the science and not the outcome, right? Righhhhhhhhhhhhhht
the dumb rednecks on corn, soy, rice, cattle farms should give a , but they are low-information Repug voters.
Can you point out what is flawed in his analysis?
You can go on thinking the odds are 1 in 16 million if you want.
Of course i can point out the falws in his logic. How do you know hes got the proper distrobution model and the proper value for lambda? What makes this a pisson process?
Why didnt this distrobution show up when the previous blogger modeled the situation, in a far more robust manner, Darrin?
Global warming is certainly going to make the World different. It is also, by producing more arable, tillable, land - as well as more Fresh water freed up in the Water Cycle - going to make the World better.
However, theres a really is a huge error in using observation data to guage the validity off the odds. That you have missed.
The litetature does not support this view.
more fresh water? where does it come from?
Seems like the aquifers in the US mid/southwest and Rocky Mtns snow melt are way down. When/how will they go up as global warming continues?
and of course carbon extractors are using/poisoning Bs of gallons water for minig, fracking, coal, electrical plant cooling, etc.
Melting ice caps - more water; more evaporation; more rain.
Water is NEVER created or destroyed; there is always the same amount of it; just in one stage of the cycle; right now a WHOLE bunch is tied up in ice. If the ice melts, there is more either as liquid, or in the atmosphere. "Literature" notwithstanding, Manny.
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