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Just proves that Willard can't handle it in my opinion. Guess he should go full birther/secret Muslim to get the advantage. Feel free to send him some pointers.
Just proves negative campaigning works in my opinion.
Just proves that Willard can't handle it in my opinion. Guess he should go full birther/secret Muslim to get the advantage. Feel free to send him some pointers.
I still think the majority of the undecideds will eventually swing for Romney putting him over the top. I read somewhere that in like the last 50 years any in bent going into the election with less than 50% in the polls has lost. That has to worry Obama. There is nothing that can happen to improve the economy in the next 99 days and a lot of out there that could hurt it.
Gecko, a moderate MA governor, is scared less of the tea baggers, extreme right Repugs, "Christian" Taleban, and racist/bigoted/ignorant red-state bubbas.
Actually, the emtpy chicken of a man has no choice.
The denial is great in wing-nuts...
Quinnipiac: Obama +6 in OH, +6 in FL, +11 in PA
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...-cbs-poll.html
Good numbers!
We are seeing the first major shift in the campaign. The significance of this is big because all pollsters have, so far, noted how static the race has become and the likelihood of a big swing back is not great as so few people are undecided.
Here is Silver on Ohio (the whole article is useful, he shows that Romney has almost no chance to win the electoral college without Ohio)
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...le-for-romney/
Rhere were two new polls out on Friday. One of them, from the firm We Ask America, gave Mr. Obama an eight-point lead there. Another, from Magellan Strategies, put Mr. Obama up by two points.
Note that Nate Silver has downgraded Romney's chances of winning the electoral college to 31%.
There is no reasonable path to an electoral college victory for Romney without Ohio. Portman is the only VP pick that helps in Ohio, so Portman's chances of being on the ticket just went up.
Romney's chances on Intrade have gone below 40 %
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
Obama could come right back by questioning Willard's Mexican roots if he's willing to sink that low, although the tax returns thing was already enough to completely ether Willard, as we've seen....
Luckily, Ron Paul is still eligible for nomination in Tampa in case the GOP wakes up and realizes that following through with this trainwreck is a mistake... Ron bless
I honestly haven't looked at legitimate pathways to victory for either candidate, but it makes sense that Ohio is pivotal.
It's possible, but this is really a turd type of election... Romney really hasn't said much of anything to get the "undecided" vote. I would actually argue he has stuck to the rabid right script, which really isn't appealing to the middle.
Barry isn't really appealing either... just an overall ty situation.
I just don't see why you would expect the undecided's break in either direction strongly. The fact that they are still undecided itself points to someone not having strong feelings either way.
A Ron Paul Republican nomination would change Obama's chances from possible to a lock.
A new poll shows 9 - 10 people have made up their minds...if your still a true independent at this point, it's very likely you'll go with the devil you know...
http://www.wtsp.com/news/national/ar...ndorses-RomneyPorn star Jenna Jameson chose a familiar stage to make her endorsement for the 2012 presidential election Thursday night. At a San Francisco strip club, the former adult actress and stage performer said she was ready for a Romney presidency.
"I'm very looking forward to a Republican being back in office," Jameson said while sipping champagne in a VIP room at Gold Club in the city's South of Market neighborhood. "When you're rich, you want a Republican in office."
Statistically this is untrue. If they still don't support the (known) in bent when he is only 90 days from re-election then the majority of the undecideds will break for the challenger.
"the majority of the undecideds will break for the challenger."
wishful thinking, aka, fantasy.
it'll be close, but I bet the in bent wins by more than the in bent in 2004
I bet Mitt wins the popular vote and O wins the electoral college.
I have posted do entation previously that supports that position. It is especially true when the approval rating of the in bent is below 50%. As of today, Rasmussen has Obama's job approval rate at 43%.
Conventional wisdom says an in bent with this economy should be LOSING at this point so you probably should reevaluate that conventional wisdom.
According to Rasmussen Obama IS losing 43% to 47%.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 43%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
Following Romney’s overseas trip, 44% believe the president is better able to deal with America’s allies. Another 44% say Romney is better for that task.
Republicans continue to follow the election more closely than Democrats or unaffiliated voters. This is a key indicator of potential turnout.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history.
you don't need do entation for hunches and predictions, nor does "do entation" make one hunch better than another.
I'd trust the aggregate of individual state polls over a single national poll - especially Rasmussen (see the last thread for that discussion).
Disagree completely. The whole point of discussion in the last thread was how accurate polls are in actually predicting the outcome - especially when you look at then all.
Rasmussen is a VRWC shill, guaranteed a McLiar landslide a few weeks before Barry landslided McLiar.
what thread, sorry? and can you quantify that?
The Obama Mcain 270 thread four years ago.
Just as an example, you can take Nate Silvers forecasting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThi..._2008_election
He's not alone, but he's the most notable example and IMO, the best.
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