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Obama has raised double the money that Mitt has. He'll easily outspend Romney by a wide margin.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/ca...p?id=N00000286
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/ca...p?id=N00009638
So, in memory of my favorite political thread of all time (this won't can't match since the last one was 75% me and Whottt arguing. RIP) I figured I'd start this one.
Obviously, in the previous thread I spent much of the time arguing that the polls were showing that Obama was going to pretty much run away with the victory. McCain had no money through much of the campaign and he had to deal with the Bush baggage. There was little realistic chance for him to win.
Romney, on the other hand, has plenty of money and will in all likelihood outspend Obama during this election cycle. He's not dealing with the issues the in bent has to deal with but he in no way shape or form is riding a wave of enthusiasm such as the Obama came in on back in 2008. GOP support for Romney is grudgingly at best.
Things are different for Obama as well. I do not expect there to be turnout numbers anywhere near what 2008 brought and this time around Obama has a very clear record to campaign on and for others to campaign against.
On a personal note, I'm no where near as plugged into politics as I was 4 years ago. I have no plans to volunteer for anyone and I don't read every news story or blog about the election. In fact, a few weeks back I took the last political blog off of my RSS feed and I haven't missed it since. That being said, I do enjoy watching the poll numbers change through the election based on various events, gaffes, and general campaigning so I actually am looking forward to monitoring the projections.
As always, 80% or so of the nation is pretty much locked in according to polling. Texas is not going blue, and NY is not going red. Etc etc. The main battleground states are as follows (electoral votes in parentheses)
Colorado (9)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)
Florida (29)
North Carolina (15)
Iowa (6)
Missouri (10)
To a lesser extent:
Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
Wisconsin (10)
There are a few other lean states, but really this is where the election will be won or lost.
Currently, the projections I put the most trust in (this hasn't changed in 4 year. Nate Silver is now employed through the NYT but still does the best analysis and electoral-vote.com still does n excellent job as well) show Obama with a very good margin to get a 2nd term. Of course, these projections don't take into account the money that will be spent, upcoming world events, and possible gaffes.
All in all, I don't see this anywhere near as close as the 2 Bush elections but I also don't see it as big a blowout as 2008. If nothing unusual happens, Obama probably has about a 60% chance to be reelected (IMO)
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Obama has raised double the money that Mitt has. He'll easily outspend Romney by a wide margin.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/ca...p?id=N00000286
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/ca...p?id=N00009638
That being said, I agree with your conclusion. Obama's going to win.
To bad Manny did not build that argument. Manny, your predictions have been wrong before. Let's hope you are wrong again. God bless
Oh don't worry, the bulk of the fundraising is yet to come. In Sep 2008 Obama raised 150 million. Romney will more than likely outspend Obama.
Those reports are a little dated, and the momentum has been on Romney's side as of late, raising more than Obama in May and June.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/bal...al-fundraising
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/0...8680CU20120709
There is a lot of talk of how Obama will be the first in bent to not raise more than his challenger.
So long as Romney's campaign hinges only on a hatred for Obama, he'll lose. If Romney can make this an election about ideas, then he has a chance. For now, there have been no ideas and Romney hasn't been helping himself as of late.
This guy was very accurate in 2008.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Per that reuters link, the source of that talk is the Obama campaign itself. So is that an honest opinion from them, or just a fundraising tactic? Personally I think it's the latter, but time will tell.
Agreed.
"If Romney can make this an election about ideas"
Gecko has been heard enough to know he's flip flopping, felony liar devoid of ideas, just like dubya.
I think the next few jobs reports before the election are going to be crucial. If the unemployment rate goes up again, even a tenth of a percent, I think Obama is probably going to lose. Realistically, he needs to string together a couple of months of six figure job growth, with at least one month crossing the 200,000 mark. Polls are already showing that Romney is closing the gap in swing states. The economy is trumping everything, including the Bain attacks. Another sub six figure jobs report and Romney will start to take a lead in every compe ive state.
Obama, the dems were elected into office because of hate. Wars, gitmo, stupidity, corruption, etc....not a lot has change except a dem is in office and we have been hit with the biggest tax increase in our nations history along with video after video of Obama lying. I didn't see to manny of you obama supporters predict correctly what would happen in 2010. God bless
largest tax increase..lol
Yup. ty candidate with -10 Charisma.
Ahhhh...the good old days.
Ahhhh...the good old days.
I feel cheated for not getting to see Joe or Dennis vs. McCain.........Ahhhh...the good old days.
Hall of fame material. Great stuff.Ahhhh...the good old days.
every person is a liar lncluding you and all the ones that write your liberal thoughts for you
Gecko is a FELONY liar.
Oregon's seven electoral votes will go to Obama.
If the ads i've seen are any indication 90 percent anti Romney I would say that Obama is going to easily kick Romneys ass. It's pretty sad that Romney is the best that the Republicans currently have to offer. He reminds me of a used car salesman. He is the A typical baby kissing fake ass politician.
Barry polls 2 to 1 over Gecko in "personal likability".
People would rather smoke a joint with Barry than drink a beer with Gecko.
Reminds of Perry not being very much liked by Texans (he blew $25M on the governor's mansion re-do)
Right there is why Obama will win. That's why every President that is ever elected wins. Ever since TV was invented, that's why the people choose who they choose.
Romney doesn't have a shot.....no one relates to the guy.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...medium=twitter
So Romney is pissing off a lot of the rest of the world but apparently not people at home.
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