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Before the Paul Ryan pick, I was leaning the same way. With him at the top of the ticket, I believe the DNC is going to run a "Republicans will kill Medicare" campaign nationally that will keep the Senate, and pick up a few seats in the House. I don't think they can take the House, though. This of course all depends on the economy staying the same or getting better. If things take a turn for the worse, the Republicans will win everything. The situation is good enough now that Democrats can run on third rail politics.
