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wonder if she'd hazard a guess on the longer term? have you got a guess?"In the near term, all that you're going to build is a natural gas plant," she said.
thanks to natural gas
http://www.stltoday.com/news/nationa...2f284d747.html
PITTSBURGH • In a surprising turnaround, the amount of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere in the United States has fallen dramatically, to its lowest level in 20 years.
Government officials say the biggest reason is that cheap and plentiful natural gas has led many power plant operators to switch from dirtier-burning coal.
Many of the world's leading climate scientists didn't see the drop coming, in large part because it happened as a result of market forces rather than direct government action against carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that traps heat in the atmosphere.
Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, said the shift away from coal is reason for "cautious optimism" about potential ways to deal with climate change. He said it demonstrates that "ultimately people follow their wallets" on global warming.
"There's a very clear lesson here. What it shows is that if you make a cleaner energy source cheaper, you will displace dirtier sources," said Roger Pielke Jr., a climate expert at the University of Colorado.
In a little-noticed technical report, the U.S. Energy Information Agency, a part of the Energy Department, said this month that total U.S. CO2 emissions for the first four months of this year fell to about 1992 levels. The Associated Press contacted environmental experts, scientists and utility companies and learned that virtually everyone believes the shift could have major long-term implications for U.S. energy policy.
While conservation efforts, the lagging economy and greater use of renewable energy are factors in the CO2 decline, the drop is due mainly to low-priced natural gas, the agency said.
A frenzy of shale gas drilling in the Northeast's Marcellus Shale and in Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana has caused the wholesale price of natural gas to plummet to about $3 from $7 or $8 per unit over the last four years, making it cheaper to burn than coal for a given amount of energy produced. As a result, utilities are relying more than ever on gas-fired generating plants.
Government and industry experts said the biggest surprise is how quickly the electric industry turned away from coal. In 2005, coal was used to produce about half of all the electricity generated in the United States. The Energy Information Agency said that fell to 34 percent in March, the lowest level since it began keeping records nearly 40 years ago.
The question is whether the shift is just one bright spot in a big, gloomy picture or a potentially larger trend.
Coal and energy use are still growing rapidly in other countries, particularly China, and CO2 levels globally are rising, not falling. Moreover, changes in the marketplace — a boom in the economy, a fall in coal prices, a rise in natural gas prices — could stall or even reverse the shift. For example, U.S. emissions fell in 2008 and 2009, then rose in 2010 before falling again last year.
Also, while natural gas burns cleaner than coal, it still emits some CO2. And drilling has its own environmental consequences, which are not yet fully understood.
"Natural gas is not a long-term solution to the CO2 problem," Pielke warned.
The International Energy Agency said the United States has cut carbon dioxide emissions more than any other country over the last six years. Total U.S. carbon emissions from energy consumption peaked at about 6 billion metric tons in 2007. Projections for this year are around 5.2 billion, and the 1990 figure was about 5 billion.
China's emissions were estimated to be about 9 billion tons in 2011, accounting for about 29 percent of the global total. The U.S. accounted for about 16 percent.
'TREND IS GOOD'
Mann called it "ironic" that the shift from coal to gas has helped bring the United States closer to meeting some of the greenhouse gas targets in the 1997 Kyoto treaty on global warming, which the United States never ratified. On the other hand, leaks of methane from natural gas wells could be pushing the United States over the Kyoto target for methane.
Even with such questions, public health experts welcome the shift because it is reducing air pollution.
"The trend is good. We like it. We are pleased that we're shifting away from one of the dirtiest sources to one that's much cleaner," said Janice Nolen, an American Lung Association spokeswoman. "It's been a real surprise to see this kind of shift. We certainly didn't predict it."
Power plants that burn coal produce more than 90 times as much sulfur dioxide, five times as much nitrogen oxide and twice as much carbon dioxide as those that run on natural gas, according to the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress. Sulfur dioxide causes acid rain, and nitrogen oxides lead to smog.
Bentek, an energy consulting firm in Colorado, said that sulfur dioxide emissions at larger power plants in 28 Eastern, Midwestern and Southern states fell 34 percent during the last two years, and nitrous oxide fell 16 percent. Natural gas has helped the power industry meet federal air pollution standards earlier than anticipated, Bentek said.
Last year the Environmental Protection Agency issued its first rules to limit CO2 emissions from power plants, but the standards don't take effect until 2014 and 2015. Experts had predicted that the rules might reduce emissions over the long term, but they didn't expect so many utilities to shift to gas so early. And they think price was the reason.
"A lot of our units are running much more gas than they ever have in the past," said Melissa McHenry, a spokeswoman for Ohio-based American Electric Power Co. "It really is a reflection of what's happened with shale gas."
"In the near term, all that you're going to build is a natural gas plant," she said.
wonder if she'd hazard a guess on the longer term? have you got a guess?"In the near term, all that you're going to build is a natural gas plant," she said.
is it conceivable the relative cost situation could change anytime soon?
(honest questions. I have no idea.)
Free Market Fracking; the new carbon offset.
So carbon emissions are now important to board Republicans?
Odd.
I think someone just posted something about the industry attempting to start exporting more natural gas, which would ultimately lead to price increases. If the price comes to parity with coal, then the emissions dip will be short lived. Hopefully that doesn't happen, and the trend continues. Natural gas would be a great bridge to the inevitable adoption of widespread solar power generation.
In the leftwing utopia, solar power can work 24 hours a day, because the people receive Warmth and Light from their Leader, and do not need the sun.
lol left wing utopia. The sun is the most abundant source of power available to us given current levels of technology. It's not left wing, its science, which apparently doesn't exist in your right wing utopia.
There's going to be an interruption in your abundant source of power starting around 7:30 this evening, science boy.
1977: "We're going to have grid parity in five years!"
1982: "We're going to have grid parity in five years!"
1987: "We're going to have grid parity in five years!"
1992: "We're going to have grid parity in five years!"
1997: "We're going to have grid parity in five years!"
2002: "We're going to have grid parity in five years!"
2007: "We're going to have grid parity in five years!"
2012: "We're going to have grid parity in five years!"
1977: "Battery technology is just around the corner!"
1982: "Battery technology is just around the corner!"
1987: "Battery technology is just around the corner!"
1992: "Battery technology is just around the corner!"
1997: "Battery technology is just around the corner!"
2002: "Battery technology is just around the corner!"
2007: "Battery technology is just around the corner!"
2012: "Battery technology is just around the corner!"
And there will be a be a e in consumption come morning, Luddite.
This has been the biggest strawman. It's all about augmenting the grid during peak hours. It always has been.
So reducing greenhouse emissions is a good thing now, sophist?
Please stop insulting my ing intelligence, you subhuman piece of . I mean, do you think I was ing born yesterday? Do you think I've never read a word in my life? As though I haven't lived through decades of greens talking about "leaving the carbon economy behind." Oh, now it's just about augmenting the grid. What the ever.
Seriously, just you. You don't deserve to live. It is your kind that needs to be purged and have your naked bodies drug through the streets. You are subhuman and should be exterminated like a filthy jew. May your children be raped, beheaded, and have their empty skulls used to in.
Good.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Nice troll though.
Probably to the point that no matter what we do, the rate of increase is pretty consistent. I still maintain that the balance of CO2 levels the earth has is primarily natural.
LOL...
You can apply that to almost anything.
The acceleration is increasing yet it's not.Probably to the point that no matter what we do, the rate of increase is pretty consistent. I still maintain that the balance of CO2 levels the earth has is primarily natural.
MUST
NOT
BE
CRUEL
I know I am cruel to you but do you ever make it hard not to be.
I know temporal order is hard to figure and all.
You are still an idiot. I would try to explain why, but why should I waste my time on something you fail to grasp.
Hint...
It's called long term... Not your short term .
Let me guess this is an extension of your warming drives CO2 idiocy?
I am not even going to bother talking to you about differentials, inputs and the like. You have already proven incapable of understanding systems or modeling.
You are simply an idiot.
So?In a surprising turnaround, the amount of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere in the United States has fallen dramatically, to its lowest level in 20 years.
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