Time to start paying attention.
Ike part two? Could be. The storm is huge and even though it likely won't be a Cat 4 or 5 it still could pick up a ton of water as a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 and push it inland...causing devastating flooding. Still no sure spot for landfall. It could be anywhere from the the Texas/LA border to the tip of the Florida panhandle. Going to be an interesting few days.
I honestly don't think its going to be very bad unless it stalls or slows down big time near the coast.
Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans on August 29, 2005
Hurricane Isaac expected to hit New Orleans on August 29, 2012
sons real talk a lot of people are overreacting and blowing out of proportion, but I can't blame most in New Orleans for doing so. at least Governor Jindal and Mayor Landrieu are handling this better than those two clowns Blanco and Nagin did. I'm in BR now and if this is still looking bad by Tuesday afternoon then I am packing up and heading to Dallas or maybe Shreveport. I'm not sitting thru a week or so of no power again lol.
Awesome movie
Shreveport? Isn't that the Louisiana equivalent to Juarez? Don't get shot son.
well son Shreveport isn't a bad town, plus it has this really nice casino resort ...
which you Texans are against casinos (for whatever childish/religious reasons) so there wouldn't be much to do in Dallas right about now ... I would rather pass my time in the poker room than sitting in the dark here in BR.
^ Do they take FEMA card though? Might end up being too busy to hang out at tbh.
lol son funny you bring that up. true story in the days/weeks after Katrina, I can remember going to one of the riverboat casinos that are in Baton Rouge and they had numerous signs posted "FEMA CARDS NOT ACCEPTED". the Katrina rats were trying to spend their $2,000ish FEMA cards at the damn casino. surprise, surprise I know.
They had pictures/interviews in the papers here of women buying Coach purses with their cards.
I'm not too worried about flooding. I'm in a part of uptown that survived Katrina relatively unscathed, my parking space is elevated, and my apartment is on the second floor. But if the news tomorrow says it's starting to look any uglier, I'm headed to stay with family in St. Louis for a few days. I have no interest in living several days without power or with a ed up/leaking roof or something. Nor do I want to bide my time with fingers crossed and end up sitting in traffic if we get a mandatory evacuation order.
Buying water tonight was fun.
So the latest recon might be showing the center reforming from earlier fixes. It might have moved anywhere from 50-75 miles to the NW.
First, a cyclone with its center reforming is not a healthy cyclone. While it still has days over water you're not going to see it go from TS to major Hurricane very quickly over the eastern Gulf. The main reason for this is because unlike in years past, the Gulf of Mexico - especially the eastern portion - has some large areas of relatively cool water. While the surface is hot, it is a very shallow layer of heat and thus the cyclone will not have much energy to work with.
In the end what tropical systems are (and most atmospheric systems for that matter) are ways to move energy (heat) from a place with a large amount to a place with lower amounts in order to reach an equilibrium. When there are not large amounts of heat to move then you won't see a strong storm.
The biggest issue with the forecast in the short range is going to be this center relocation. The models are all initialized with a center that is far from the current center and because of that there will be an error built into the next set of runs. Hopefully by tomorrow morning we'll get some better output and we can know more about how much risk New Orleans faces. I suspect you'll get Hurricane Issac officially before sunrise based on the latest recon data but outside of that its going to be hard to gauge possible strength increases until the storm is better organized (if that even happens). I don't believe there's a large chance of it ever getting past a cat 2, though.
croflmao at us-centric posters not bothering to pay attention to a storm until after it's ravaged a few caribbean countries
As storms go, Isaac's a pussycat.
I'm staying in Lake Charles for now.
Non issue. It's still only a 65mph tropical storm and the projections are now downgraded that it will only be a 90mph category 1 when it hits land.
Ive been through a couple, Ike, Rita, Humberto. Humberto was just supposed to be a TS but got strong right off the coast to a Cat 1 overnight. These things can change in a hurry.
Last edited by djohn2oo8; 08-27-2012 at 09:01 AM.
All this watching, waiting, and trying to decide what I want to do is for the birds. It makes me miss the the spontaneity of the earthquakes I grew up with.
If you can live without electricity for 2 days, then stay. This one isn't going to be strong enough to do much more than that. Don't let the media scare you with their hope of doom and gloom. I've got beer and a bbq pit so I'm all set.
no looter rifle?
Nah, not for a cat 1. It's stored away for the next cat 5.
The living without electricity bit is the only part I'm worried about. I could, of course. I'm not THAT much of a princess. But I'd really rather not.
I also don't particularly want to make the 10-hour drive to where I've got family. So ultimately I've got to decide in the next couple of hours which of these options sounds like less of a pain in the ass.
Just make sure that your laptop/iphone/ipad etc are all charged up and the time will fly by. Go run to the store and fill your icechests with ice so you have cold drinks for a couple days. It's better than spending 20 combined hours in a car over the next few days.
The 11AM EDT guidance is the first in some time to shift the track (ever so slightly) to the east. I think the worst thing from this storm as it stands would be the associated storm surge, especially should it come ashore at high tide.
If I lived in a hurricane-prone area I'd for sure have a backup power generator.
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