I don't care who starts, but I do care that Pop seemingly changes what's working at the last moment and going into the playoffs. That has not worked for the Spurs and leaves a lot of "what-if's" in my opinion.
My concern as well. If pop is going to turn to diaw or splitter in the playoffs, it's better to have them build chemestry with t from the beginning. Starting Blair is not the answer. Saying that I hope he's improved this summer and makes me eat my words, but even the. The physical limitations are to big to ignore.
Jack and Mills provide your spacing with that lineup.
So the spurs basically have the same winning % with or without Blair?
he hasnt shown us any upgrades over the years his been here, not fkn impressed at all....
I do. The team is not going to get better defensively by starting Blair. If he can't play with Splitter of the bench then the Spurs need to find a guy who can. I still feel Splitter needs to play some more backup PF minutes to get better.
I'd like Diaw's defense in the starting lineup -- I really would. But there's just absolutely no way that Blair and Splitter will work as the bench bigs. Splitter has to have a floor spacing power forward next to him. It's a must. If the Spurs try to play Blair next to Splitter, the opposing team will just sag off of Blair and negate all the Splitter pick-and-roll attempts. And it'd be a disaster for Blair, too. Not only would he have to try to score over his man (who is always taller than him), he'd have the opposing center also in his lap.
On paper, Blair and Splitter doesn't work at all. The stats back that up about as emphatically as statistically possible: Last year, the Spurs outscored opponents by 15.31 points per 100 possessions when Bonner played next to Splitter. When Blair played next to Splitter, the Spurs were outscored by 13.11 points per 100 possessions. That's a staggering difference of 28.42 points per 100 possessions when you put a floor spacing next to Splitter as opposed to an interior player.
If Diaw starts, it GUARANTEES Bonner will be the backup power forward. Blair next to Splitter is an impossibility.
As the roster is composed at this moment, starting Blair is the lesser of all evils. It's obviously far from perfect ... but them's the cards that have been dealt.
Well, Diaw got put into the lineup and the Spurs went on a 20 game winning streak, can't really argue with results. But I think Blair should start simply because he will be happy if he's starting regardless of if he plays "starter minutes" and Diaw will get the bulk of the time at PF anyway. I do agree with Bruno though, Blair gets killed by starting quality PFs and is more suited to play against bench players. But the second unit has terrible spacing with him next to Splitter, and Bonner should not be ahead of Blar imo. It's a double edged sword, but Blair starting generally hasn't hurt us in the regular season and it can only raise his stock so he can be traded for a decent player
But it won't matter eventually because I'm certain he will be traded at some point, Bonner sucks but he is who should be playing next to Splitter, the numbers don't lie
Also I'd like to point out, don't you think Pop, with Leonard/Jackson on the roster, will be playing more small ball with either one of them at PF with Splitter in the middle? I could swear this happened a few times
That's some staggering statistics about Tiago/Bonner vs. Tiago/Blair. Think you are right that we'll see more of Bonner with Blair for spacing. If Blair has really worked on his jumper from 15-18 feet, perhaps we might see something different.
I think timvp's reasoning is the exact reason Blair has always started. It's also the reason Diaw was brought on board, as an improvement for the starting lineup. Like many have said he might hang for awhile as the starter in the RS, but it's not sustainable.
I believe this thread is the best thing I've read all off-season and makes a lot of sense. I expect to see a good amount of small ball with Jack and Kawhi. Good thing Kawhi is young.
Probably Curry is just insurance for TnT if he stays. Brown would probably need to prove he could beat out Blair and Bonner for the 4th big spot before he gets to stay.
I am envious of all of you that are going to the game. Will be listening to Schoening in the second half.
I agree that there isn't a perfect solution with Spurs current roster and you made some good points but Diaw starting with Blair as the backup is the less worst solution for the following reasons in addition of Blair inability to defend good PFs:
- The Parker/Green/Leonard/Blair/Duncan lineup hasn't worked at all last year. Spurs have outscored teams by 7.1pts per 48minutes last year and this lineup was outscored by 6.3pts per 48 min. This lineup was weak both defensively and offensively.
- You can limit the amount of minute Blair will be paired with Splitter even if both are backups. Without doing something really complicate, one of Diaw or Duncan can hit the bench early in the first and third quarters.
- It isn't really known but Blair was actually good last year at hitting midrange jump-shots. He was 31 for 73 which is a solid .425 FG%. The sample size isn't big enough to claim that Blair midrange jumper is a reliable weapon for Spurs but he might become this year after he worked on it this summer.
- I'm not sold that a Mills/Ginobili/Blair/Splitter lineup won't work offensively. There will have a spacing issue between Blair and Splitter but what will help it is that both are good passers and that all 3 perimeter players are 3 points shooters.
imo if curry is added to the roster, i want to see him paird up with someone who can cover his weakness that is defense, maybe diaw is the perfect answer...he can spread the floor and clog up the lane, while making that extra pass to find curry down low....adding curry makes blair expendable, reason being curry is a bigger version of blair without the double clutch circus shots
curry/diaw with either wings like gino/kl/green/jax for the wing defense and help defense...
Bonner is guaranteed to be in the rotation no matter who starts. So I don't see that being a factor either way.
Regardless,
Some people don't want Blair starting because of the mismatch versus teams like the Lakers, and it's a great point, but I don't think that's of any real consequence. Barring severe injuries the Lakers will have zero compe ion in the West. Everyone else is just a pretender playing to lose in the conference finals. So sure, Blair would cause the Spurs to get eaten alive, but they have no chance without getting help from fate anyway.
The Spurs didn't miss him out of the starting line-up this past year. They won 10 straight playoff games without him starting, and what, 14-15 in row without him starting? Wasn't it some of the best Spurs basketball ever witnessed? Yeah, they crumbled in the playoffs with the vintage Pop backdoor sweep. But that was a whole lot of things going wrong, and I don't think Blair's garbage defense would have won that series as a starter.
And, if they're serious about being a better defensive team, I can't see how they'd do that starting Blair.
If he truly has improved his game and his shape, to the point of being a solid defender who isn't too fat to finish above the rim or jump to get rebounds, then let's see him wreck other teams' reserves coming off the bench and earn the starting role instead of just being gifted it because he can't or won't perform off the bench.
Why do we always have to try to outsmart everyone? Why don't we just start our best players like 99% of the other teams do?
Starters play more minutes, if you start your best players they will play more minutes, if you play your best players more minutes the team as a whole does better. It's pretty simple imho.
Your argument makes sense based upon offense. But the Spurs are not going to win it all by not getting back to defense first and starting Blair doesn't help that shift. There are a couple of solutions to the offense problems that don't involve Bonner. Blair can start hitting his jumpers or Pop can play more small ball with Kawhi or Jax at the 4 or they can keep Josh Powell. They also need to get back to being able to run the offense out of Splitter through the post instead of just pick and roll all the time.
Disagree. Switching to Diaw in the starting lineup last season was absolutely the right call and is a reason why the Spurs got as close as they got. I can't fathom a "what-if" that has the Spurs beating the Thunder with last year's Blair in the starting lineup.
That "spacing issue" is too much of a negative to overcome. The only way to make it work at all is if the Spurs went away from a pick-and-roll attack ... and that'd be pretty dumb considering how well their offense has been the last couple years.
If Diaw starts, Bonner is going to be the fourth bigman -- whether it's right away or a week or two into the season when Pop tires of the lack of spacing in the second unit.
If this is true, then Diaw should start.
This is why I think the Spurs should keep Powell if continues to play well throughout camp and the preseason. Perhaps he can outplay their other two fake PF's and give them someone is really is suited to play the position on both sides of the ball.
Come playoffs time we will want/need our best players to play toghether as much as possible. Why play Manu/Diaw/whoever as a sub the whole season if when it really matters we're going to start him/them? Why improvise at the most crucial time if we can work on it during the season?
The excessive minute watching is a problem too, if you play a guy 25/30 minutes the whole season, you can't expect that guy to start playing 35/40 in the playoffs without gassing out. Playing your guys a lot of minutes per game improves endurance, yeah it consumes energy too but that can be fixed with a game off every now and then.
I'm not asking for Tim and Manu to start playing 40 minutes per game but those bull 18/20 minutes games hurt more than it helps, imho.
I agree with Bruno but if the Spurs want to trade Blair, maybe Pop has to put him in the starting line-up to make his value rise.
I also think that Bonner will be the first big off the bench like in the past seasons. I don't like that fact but I see no reason why Pop could change his mind on Bonner.
Boris can start the game and be taken out of the game quickly in the first and the third quarters like KG in Boston last season. Then bring Blair and hope that he can score enough to be a good asset in a trade. It's probably not the case today but the front-office has often made good decisions when trade deadline comes. TBH, I'm pessimistic about Blair's chance to be a Spur after the trade deadline.
The fact that the Spurs have invited a lot of forwards at the training camp makes me think that there will be more small ball line-ups than last year. If all guards plus Kawhi and Jax want to have minutes, Pop will have to reduce the height of his lineup. Moreover, there will be more spacing with a small ball config and we all know how it's important in Pop's mind.
You have to wonder if Blair's sour mood has only to do with being yanked out of the lineup for the playoffs twice in a row, or if Pop already hinted at him there's no minutes for him.
Let's not forget that before Diaw came over, Bonner and Splitter, the reserve guys, were getting about 20 mpg. I completely agree with objective that Bonner will keep on getting his minutes.
The more I think about it, the more I think Blair will be the 5th big and insurance for Splitter.
Splitter is very suspect right now: non-stop dings that cause him to miss games all the time, possibly missing some training camp again, hack-a-Splitter was out there for everyone to see, and foul trouble isn't out of the question since he's still has ways to go earning respect from refs.
I wouldn't be surprised if this happens. I think they want to get another look at him, because other than Leonard, he's got the most room for growth. He's obviously in the best shape of his life and it looks as if he may have finally added a mid range jumper (how reliable it is and the exact extent of his range, remains to be seen). If he can show slight improvement defensively, the job could be his to lose for the simple fact that I don't think Pop will be comfortable playing him next to Splitter either, mid range jumper or not.
They should at least try playing them together, at the start of the preseason, to see how it works. If if doesn't work, then I could understand starting him. But it would be contradictory to once again claim defense is the main focus, then start a defensive liability and have another in the rotation.
I disagree completely. Blair needs to earn the starting spot by playing defense, rebounding and showing smarts out there on the court. If he can't do that then he shouldn't be starting.
No one on this team should be handed anything anymore.
Don't know if you can draw many conclusions from the 1st preseason game, but Diaw started, and Bonner/Blair came off the bench. Tiago was unavailable, so it's going to be interesting who loses minutes when he can suit up.
I think Bonner will play no matter what, so that would leave the 4th/5th big spot between Tiago and Blair...
Bonner playing is just plain re ed. He is a not worth wasting time with. We need to play people that can contribute in the playoffs. Don't care what he can do in the regular season.
btw I might as well ask - Was Bonner carrying an injury in the playoffs or was he OK physically throughout that run?
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