Why the Spurs Should Release Josh Powell

[timvp]

Thus far in training camp, Josh Powell has been a revelation. The 6-foot-9 power forward, who is signed to an unguaranteed contract, has been arguably the most impressive player on the entire team over the course of the two preseason games and the scrimmage. In those three outings, Powell is averaging 11.3 points and 5.0 rebounds in 18.9 minutes per game while shooting a sizzling 73.7% (14-for-19) from the field.

Could Powell be a sleeper who will blossom in San Antonio after bouncing around the globe? We’ve seen it happen before quite a bit in the Gregg Popovich era but in this particularly situation I believe it’s highly, highly unlikely. In fact, I don’t think the Spurs should consider keeping him. The risks far outweigh the remote chance at a payoff down the line. The closer I look at his production over the years, the more doubtful I become that Powell is legitimately a worthwhile player.

The 29-year-old (he’ll turn 30 in January) is no stranger to the NBA world. Breaking into the league during the 2005-06 season with the Dallas Mavericks, Powell has played a total of 315 regular season games for the Mavs, Pacers, Warriors, Clippers, Lakers and Hawks. His best season was in 2007-08 with the Clippers when he averaged 5.5 points and 5.2 rebounds per game in 19.2 minutes.

Last season, Powell signed with the Liaoning Dinosaurs of the Chinese Basketball Association during the NBA lockout. After playing 32 games in China, he signed with a professional team in Puerto Rico and played 14 more games. Previously in his basketball career he played for teams in Russia and Italy.

Even if there was no lockout last summer, it’s questionable whether Powell would have landed on an NBA roster. The problem is he’s had four consecutive seasons in which his production has been poor and his impact has been even worse.

Going back to the 2007-08 campaign with the Clippers, while his scoring and rebounding rates were acceptable for a reserve bigman, the rest of his numbers were underwhelming. He shot only 46% from the field, finished with 65 turnovers to only 47 assists, didn’t get to the line much (2.6 attempts per 36 minutes), fouled a ton (3.8 fouls per 36), and didn’t tally many blocks or steals (a total of 1.1 per 36). As a result, he posted a substandard PER of 10.7. And keep in mind, this was far and away his best season in the NBA.

To put that in perspective, the only player on the Spurs last season who posted a worse PER than Powell’s career-best PER was James Anderson at 8.8. Even Richard Jefferson had a 10.9 PER before he was traded.

For his career, Powell has an anemic 9.2 PER (and it drops to 6.7 in the 192 minutes he has played in the postseason). Only ten players during Powell’s time in the NBA have played as many minutes while posting a worse PER -- and literally all ten are/were defensive specialists (Bruce Bowen, Quinton Ross, Antoine Wright, Eric Snow, Sasha Pavlovic, Trenton Hassell, Greg Buckner, Royal Ivey and the Collins twins).

Powell’s previous two seasons in the NBA were particularly poor. In 2009-10, his PER was 6.7 in 581 minutes with the Lakers. Only six players in the NBA who played at least 500 minutes had a lower PER. The next season, he had a PER of 8.0 in 653 minutes with the Hawks. Again, there were only a handful of players who were on the court that often who produced so little.

If you don’t want to put all your trust in PER -- and you shouldn’t because it misses out on important intangibles such as individual defense -- viewing Powell’s advanced stats paint an even gloomier picture.

When Powell was on the court during his best season on the Clippers, L.A. was outscored by 7.73 points per 100 possessions. Of those who played at least 500 minutes, that was emphatically the worst number on the team. No other player posted a number even half as bad (second worst was Al Thornton at -3.46).

Powell played his next two seasons with the Lakers. Both seasons, advanced stats say he was by far the worst player on the team. The 2008-09 champion Lakers were outscored by 13.59 points per 100 possessions when Powell played (second worst was Adam Morrison at 3.97). The following year, that number remained virtually the same at -12.47 (Sasha Vujacic was second worst at -7.78).

In 2010-11, the Hawks were outscored by 9.63 points with Powell on the court. For the fourth straight season, that was the lowest mark on his team. To summarize: in four consecutive seasons with three different teams, Powell was responsible for the worst plus/minus numbers on the team each year.

No matter how you look at Powell’s NBA career, you come to the conclusion that he’s been one of the worst players in the league. Even if he managed to improve while playing in China and Puerto Rico, he still has a long ways to go to even become an average bench player. Maybe Powell is suddenly capable of better production and has suddenly learned to not have such a consistently negative impact when he’s on the court -- but I doubt it. The more likely scenario is he’s experiencing a flukish hot stretch. It’d be a shame to let go of a legit NBA player to make room for someone with such a extensive track record of mediocrity.

[DPG21920]

Nice write up and I probably agree. That is the thing with the NBA though - both in the philosophy of training camp, pre-draft workouts, the combine or Summer League - players are being evaluated on a snap shot in time. If you get hot, you might get lucky and certain players (really talented ones sometime) are let go because they had an off day/week. It's the catch-22 of this type of evaluation.

The thing that I find odd is how bad he measures out statistically. I remember on LA that he seemingly had a solid offensive game with a quality 18 foot shot. Never someone who was crazy good, but definitely did not seem that bad based on the eye ball test.

[Bruno]

Yeah, it's unlikely that Powell suddenly got better at 29 years old after and 6 years spend in the NBA. Playing more in China and Puerto Rico could have helped him but I doubt enough to turn him into a legit NBA player.

Saying that, this thread is premature. Spurs have still 5 preseason games left before facing the deadline to make a choice on his contract. They can give some minutes to Powell in these 5 games because they don't really have other PFs that needs preseason minutes. After these games, it will be time for Spurs to decide whether or not to keep him. By that time, Powell could have faded away turning cutting him into an obvious mode. He could too still be damn impressive making his recent play being lees likely a fluke because the sample would be bigger. If Powell is still playing well, keeping him could be an easy choice because other invites could too have faded away.

Right now, I would keep Curry and cut Powell but it doesn't matter because Spurs don't have to make the choice now. Near the end of the training camp, it will be time to decide who to keep and who to cut.

[tmtcsc]

Not one of your better posts or points LJ. If Powell plays well enough to earn a roster spot on this team and there is a need for him, you sign him. His salary should be cheap and if he's eligible for the vet minimum, the cost will be even cheaper. I'd rather sign the guy who comes to play rather than the one with tons of potential.

Maybe the system and his skills are a good match. Maybe he likes the coaching staff and surroundings. Who knows.

Just my opinion.

[timvp]

Yeah, Bruno, I don't think Powell should be released this instant. I'm fine with him sticking around until the end of preseason. But even if he keeps playing out of his mind, I can't imagine a scenario in which he should be kept. An entire preseason is still a small sample size. Everything points to Powell being a huge failure if the Spurs ever have to rely on him in a game that means something.

There's a small glimmer of hope that Powell found the fountain of skill overseas but you can say that about anyone. Hard evidence points to Powell being quite possibly the worst player in the NBA over the last half decade.

I can overlook a bad PER but when that PER is combined with horrid plus/minus numbers ... I just can't ignore both. Especially when the same thing is happening on multiple teams.

[TD 21]

Yeah, it's unlikely that Powell suddenly got better at 29 years old after and 6 years spend in the NBA. Playing more in China and Puerto Rico could have helped him but I doubt enough to turn him into a legit NBA player.

Saying that, this thread is premature. Spurs have still 5 preseason games left before facing the deadline to make a choice on his contract. They can give some minutes to Powell in these 5 games because they don't really have other PFs that needs preseason minutes. After these games, it will be time for Spurs to decide whether or not to keep him. By that time, Powell could have faded away turning cutting him into an obvious mode. He could too still be damn impressive making his recent play being lees likely a fluke because the sample would be bigger. If Powell is still playing well, keeping him could be an easy choice because other invites could too have faded away.

Right now, I would keep Curry and cut Powell but it doesn't matter because Spurs don't have to make the choice now. Near the end of the training camp, it will be time to decide who to keep and who to cut.

It is not. I say that because, in addition to the numbers dug up by timvp, it shouldn't matter how impressive Powell is. Because he brings nothing to the table they don't already have, he should be cut, especially considering the fact that Curry has shown enough of a pulse to make him a worthy project for at least the first part of the season.

[kobyz]

i remember Josh Powell playing for the Clippers and the Lakers, he always have shown glimpses of an high quality player but never kept on consistency, maybe now that he is more mature he has more stability, he worth to keep, he will be upgrade over Bonner that for sure,

[ElNono]

I'll buy your numbers, but I'll just say that what I recall from the limited minutes he played with the Lakeshow (a team that was majorly stacked upfront, with Odom/Bynum/Gasol), he seemed ok. Not starter quality, but certainly a cut above the rest of the scrubs he was playing with/against. What Powell would give the Spurs is a dose of athleticism, something that has been sorely lacking on the team for a while now in that position. You could argue that's even more valuable than the raw size a guy like Curry would bring.

On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they don't keep anybody.

[Bruno]

But even if he keeps playing out of his mind, I can't imagine a scenario in which he should be kept.

Well, If Curry sucks for the rest of the preseason and Powell is still great, keeping Powell wouldn't be a bad move. Spurs don't really other options for the 15th spot because I haven't been really impressed by Brown or Witherspoon.

Even if Powell is kept after the training camp, it won't mean he will be here for the year. Spurs still have until the guaranteed contract deadline in January to figure out if he is legit or a fluke.

There's a small glimmer of hope that Powell found the fountain of skill overseas but you can say that about anyone. Hard evidence points to Powell being quite possibly the worst player in the NBA over the last half decade.

I can overlook a bad PER but when that PER is combined with horrid plus/minus numbers ... I just can't ignore both. Especially when the same thing is happening on multiple teams.

Yep, Powell's career has been just bad.

[ace3g]

I think the increase in productivity from Powell is in correlation to the mystery bandage under his right ear...

[LkrFan]

Although he's no star, he's still serviceable and will give you guys more than the Red Rocket would tbh.

[therealtruth]

He's the anti-Bonner. Bonner fails the eyeball test but passes the plus-minus tests. It looks like it's the reverse with Powell.

[racm]

Although he's no star, he's still serviceable and will give you guys more than the Red Rocket would tbh.

Even perma-small ball would contribute more than Bonner tbh; Jackson has a post game.

He's the anti-Bonner. Bonner fails the eyeball test but passes the plus-minus tests. It looks like it's the reverse with Powell.

Advanced stats love Bonner because he shoots the three ball well and doesn't turn the ball over.

[superbigtime]

TIMVP, you make a convincing case. More than likely, Powell is just having a handfull of nice games. It's hard to find a keeper in other teams' garbage cans, but the Spurs have done it over and over, and more often recently. Neal, Green, and Mills come to mind. Curry might be a keeper, but Powell probably not. Those are some appalling stats you presented.

[dunkman]

Bonner was always an serviceable player, at least in the RS. Now the Spurs have Diaw at PF, but they still need someone better to start. The players they are trying aren't good players tbh.

[Steve-O-Matic]

So they should release a player who is playing extremely well, because he's never played this well before. That's some logic there.

[TE]

So they should release a player who is playing extremely well, because he's never played this well before. That's some logic there.

timvp is saying the dude has basically reached his peak and will eventually (anticipated) regress in performance.

[jeebus]

This thread should've been about "Why the Spurs MUST Release Matt Bonner if they want to go anywhere in the playoffs"

[spurraider21]

Unlike most teams trying to fill their rosters the spurs are delicately tying to narrow down the roster. Let's not waste another spot on yet another big that plays small

[racm]

This thread should've been about "Why the Spurs MUST Release Matt Bonner if they want to go anywhere in the playoffs"

He got a DNP-CD

[SpurNation]

Well the reasoning for releasing him could be the same for releasing a number of Spur players who show promise, play well at times then fade during playoffs. That said...I see the reasoning but think it best to wait and see who out of the three invites consistently provide the best for the team. Curry, Powell or Brown? Each have their good and bad. Curry more in the line of a pure Center. Powell in the line of a 4/5. Brown in the line of the athletic 3/4. Each with unique talents or needs the Spurs didn't possess abundantly last season.

[therealtruth]

Since '08-'09 Bonner has been getting our hopes up with regular season success only to bomb out in the playoffs. It's a crutch the team needs to get rid off.

[FkLA]

How is this guys defense? The last thing we should be looking for in a big-man is nice stats.

[Strategic]

I would not spend any time researching the numbers that you have posted on Powell's career. I have more faith in the Spurs system and it's ability to make use of league capable position players. Now that Blair is losing the weight that coaches and fans have ask for him to lose, along with his belly aching, do you believe that DeJuan is still a viable low post for the Spurs rotation? I do not fault DB's past efforts for the team, but I would very much like to see a rotation that will shorten his PT this year. Isn't that what the FO is looking for with someone like Powell? Please, before you start pulling up Blair's improving numbers(?) over his short career, I do not think you can convince me that his successes aren't mostly due to, you got it, the Spurs' system. While I am estatic with the teams success last season I believe the powers that be want to improve the team for this year, thus the continuing look at Powell. I've enjoyed your writing over the past few years, but I'm afraid this one may be a poster child for the unexperienced man's penchant of premature ejaculation. Really, all kidding aside, you managed to entertain me for 15 minutes. Good job!!!Now I must go.

[timvp]

he worth to keep, he will be upgrade over Bonner that for sure,

I'm as sick of Bonner's playoff disappearing act as any other Spurs fans but Bonner is better than Powell. Bonner is at least useful in the regular season. Powell has a long, proven history of being horrible in the regular season and the playoffs.