Sure but if you think Obama now trails in the EV projections then now would be the time to bet on Romney.
Seriously, anyone who thinks Romney is ahead should let me know so we can place some bets. I'm not expecting anyone to step up to the plate.
*pfft* this thing is going to the wire. If you don't live in a swing state and aren't a political junkie half the people don't even realize yet we are voting for President in 2 1/2 weeks.
Give me 2/1 and I'll take Romney for $50. That way no matter who wins, I win.
The link is where Romney was in favor of letting the auto industry fail. And this
http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/el...-romney-camps/
Obama up 26 points in early voting in Ohio.
K
Obvious fraud.
That dude that boutons keeps citing from the NYT posts a collection of the swing state local polls and that showed Ohio with a 1 point favor for Obama ie a statistical dead heat.
Obvious. Any poll with Obama up is fraud - Darrin
Unemployment rate going down is a fraudulent liberal conspiracy!
Why would I give you 2/1 when you're thinking Romney just took the lead? At best I should give you 1:1
You missed the big question mark behind it? I'm not stupid, Manny. I just posted the link.
A CNN/ORC International poll taken after the second presidential debate finds that 49% of likely voters in Florida support Mitt Romney and 48% back President Barack Obama.
I don't think next weeks debate matters. Mitt happens.
I dont think any of them do. People already know who they're voting for. And I wouldn't count CNN as a credible poll.
Gop firing up the base with all this talk of a Romney lead because of a bogus Gallup poll. Gallups polls are officially skewed.
When you look at the swing states though, it looks overwhelmingly Obama...
Oct. 18: Obama Gains in Forecast on Resiliency in Swing State Polls
By NATE SILVER
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...g-state-polls/One of the risks in focusing too much on the results of any one poll, like the Gallup national tracking poll, is that you may lose sight of the bigger picture.
On Thursday, that story was one of President Obama continuing to hold leads in most polls of critical states. Of the 13 polls of swing states released on Thursday, Mr. Obama held leads in 11 of them.
Obama has broken Silvers area of concern again at 70%. Barring a catastrophic collapse by Obama in the third debate the country could go as high as 70 percent Obama in the final days till the election.......Mr. Obama may be benefiting from early voting in Iowa, where both polls and statistics on ballot requests suggest that he is well ahead among those who have voted so far.
In Nevada, Democrats made a late surge in voter registration totals. They have about a 70,000 voter lead in registration totals among active registered voters, or 120,000 voters considering inactive voters as well.
There is also some suggestion in the data that the polls with the most recent field dates are slightly stronger for Mr. Obama than those that were conducted earlier in the week. An EPIC/MRA poll of Michigan, for instance, conducted entirely on Wednesday, showed him with a six-point lead there — up from three points in a survey the same firm had conducted earlier in October.
As of Thursday, there were not yet clear signs of a shift toward Mr. Obama in national polls — and certainly not in the Gallup national tracking poll, which has had Mr. Romney continuing to make gains and put him ahead by seven points among likely voters on Thursday.
Mr. Obama did draw into a tie, however, in Public Policy Polling’s most recent national poll, improving from a four-point deficit in a poll they conducted last weekend.
Online polls conducted by Google Consumer Surveys on Wednesday and Thursday, after this week’s presidential debate, also showed Mr. Obama with nominal leads of 2.2 and 0.6 points, reversing a modest advantage they had given to Mr. Romney before this Tuesday’s presidential debate.
Still, if the national polls tell a more equivocal tale than the Gallup poll alone would imply, it’s really in the state polls where Mr. Obama’s strength lies — as has largely been the case all year.
Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College improved to 70.4 percent on Thursday from 65.7 percent on Wednesday, according to the forecast.
On a separate note, Joe Pags is a piece of liar. Obama never had a super majority Pags. You piece of .
Early voting in swing states overwhelmingly.................................... Obama
Iowa
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...for-democrats/The only state where we have a large amount of data is showing very good signs for Democrats. About 219,000 Iowans have cast early votes or absentee ballots (13.4 percent of the state’s 2008 turnout), and so far the breakdown is 53 percent Democratic and 28 percent Republican.
Republicans have been steadily narrowing that gap, but right now, Democrats are exceeding their 2008 early voting performance, when they carried the early vote by 18 points and President Obama won the state by nine points.
Florida
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...for-democrats/For the first time, we have some good data in this all-important swing state. In-person early voting doesn’t start until Oct. 27, but according to the Miami Herald, about 284,000 people have cast absentee ballots so far (about 3.4 percent of the total 2008 turnout). And the breakdown is pretty evenly split — 44 percent Republican and 40 percent Democrat.
But that’s not as good for the GOP as it might seem.
A Republican National Committee memo last week cited its their edge in absentee ballots in a number of states, including Florida. But you need to look at those numbers in context. The Herald’s Marc Caputo notes that, at this point in 2008, Republicans had a 16-point advantage in absentee ballots and still lost the state. Today, that advantage is just four points.
Indeed, Republicans generally perform better among absentee voters than among in-person early voters. So it’s not surprising to see Republicans winning the absentee vote in Florida or other states. The question is by how much.
In-person early voting is generally a much bigger piece of the pie than absentee voting when it comes to the early vote, but Florida Republicans reduced the amount of time that in-person early voting is available.
Ohio
It’s a little harder to suss out which side has the early advantage in Ohio, because the state doesn’t have party registration. Instead, we have to look at which counties (blue counties or red counties) are voting more often.
So far, the picture is a little mixed. Democrats appear to be benefiting from bigger early turnout in heavily Democratic Franklin County (home to Columbus), where more than 62,000 people have cast early votes (about 11 percent of the county’s total 2008 turnout). While the county comprised less than 10 percent of the state’s overall turnout in 2008, it’s so far been 23 percent of the early vote in 2012.
Another Democratic area — Cincinnati-based Hamilton County — is making up about 11 percent of the early vote, even though it was only 7 percent of the overall turnout four years ago.
No.
Just reflects on the type of people who vote early.... maybe...
Colorado
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-vs-the-world/FiveThirtyEight Projections `Dem `Rep ``````Margin
Polling average ```````````47.7 `46.3 Obama +1.4
Adjusted polling average `46.9 `47.1 Romney +0.2
State fundamentals ``````47.8 `46.3 Obama +1.5
Now-cast ``````````````````47.0 47.0 `` Tie
Projected vote share ±4.1 49.6 49.3 Obama +0.3
Chance of winning 53% 47%
Iowa
FiveThirtyEight Projections Dem Rep Margin
Polling average 49.0 45.9 Obama +3.1
Adjusted polling average 48.0 46.6 Obama +1.4
State fundamentals 48.0 46.1 Obama +1.9
Now-cast 48.0 46.5 Obama +1.5
Projected vote share ±4.4 50.4 48.6 Obama +1.8
Chance of winning 66% 34%
No President has been recently elected without
Ohio
FiveThirtyEight Projections Dem Rep Margin
Polling average 48.3 44.9 Obama +3.4
Adjusted polling average 47.5 45.7 Obama +1.8
State fundamentals 47.2 46.8 Obama +0.4
Now-cast 47.5 45.8 Obama +1.7
Projected vote share ±3.8 50.3 48.3 Obama +2.0
Chance of winning 71% 29%
Pennsylvania
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-vs-the-world/FiveThirtyEight Projections Dem Rep Margin
Polling average 49.1 44.2 Obama +4.9
Adjusted polling average 48.6 44.9 Obama +3.7
State fundamentals 50.0 44.1 Obama +5.9
Now-cast 48.8 44.8 Obama +4.0
Projected vote share ±3.5 51.6 47.3 Obama +4.3
Chance of winning 89% 11%
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