Last season the Spurs were arguably a James Harden 3-point dagger away from reaching the finals. In their series against the Thunder, San Antonio's defensive strategy was pulverized over and over again by a myriad of long 2's and 3's.
Many reasons have been outlined for the Spurs' defeat, and one could argue that the Thunder not only received a favorable whistle, but also somehow caught fire at the right time. However, those factors were and always will be out of the Spurs' control. In my opinion the main reason why OKC beat our guys is because their best players were able to play longer than our best players.
Minutes for big 3's:
Spurs: Parker (37.8) Ginobili (30) Duncan (34.3)
Thunder: Westbrook (38.5) Harden (32) Durant (42.8)
Of course, minutes aren't the only important factor. It's what you do with them that counts, and a closer look at PER differences between the regular season and the playoffs for our big 3 brings more light to this problem. Our guys play less minutes during the regular season, but do so at a fantastically efficient level. Below are the PER's for our big 3 for the 2011-2012 season:
Duncan - 22.5
Ginobili - 24.1
Parker - 22.0
However, come playoff time the picture becomes less rosy, as Parker and Ginobili saw significant drops in their efficiency during the playoffs:
Parker - 19.4 (-2.6)
Ginobili - 17.0 (-7.1)
Timmy's PER actually shot up during the playoffs to a 22.9, but as I stated before, he only played 33 mpg in the playoffs. The Spurs still need more than 33 minutes from him during the playoffs, especially defensively, where the Spurs become sieve-like without Timmy's presence.
Bottom line: Our big 3 is no longer seems to be conditioned for approximately 36 minutes of peak performance thanks to Pop's micromanaging of minutes during the regular season. If the Spurs can't count on at least 36 minutes of elite level play from their big 3 (okay, fine...maybe 32-34 for Manu), then they're toast come playoff time.
Solution: For the most part, I agree with Pop's minute management, and Timmy has cited such micromanagement as a reason for his resurgence, but everything has its limits. In my opinion the Spurs should treat the last couple of months of the regular season as a kind of "pre-playoffs" minutes-wise. They should gradually start increasing the minutes of our big 3 so as to ease them into playoff shape.
Thoughts?
I think everybody knows this is all true. A bench will get you in the best position to win in the postseason, but cant win you the chip. Your stars have to beat their stars. We will probably be the 3-4 seed this year and have to hope for the best. You can't ask for much more.
This argument happens every year. It's a real fine line and there are no right or wrong answers. Both philosophies have plus and minuses. Obviously Pops line of thinking is having the big 3 healthy come playoff time, even if they aren't as well conditioned as they should be. The latter in his mind is pushing them too hard at the end of meaningless regular season games and one of them seriously gets hurt and we are out in the 1st round.
In my opinion I would rather see the Spurs did what they did last season and use the 1st round or two to give more minutes to the guys. Seems like he was still managing minutes throughout the Utah series and sweeping through the first two rounds certainly didn't help that either.
The 08 Celtics and the 11 Mavs say hi.
Our guys (namely Neal/Bonner/Splitter/Green) just have to step up, and Pop needs to not panic in the first quarter of game 5 at home.
Agree with OP's bottom line though.
hey, you posted something painfully obvious to us for years now, an obvious to anyone that watches basketball. depth is overrated, we all know this, but it will allow the big three rest and that's what is important. more than likely this team won't be challenging the likes of LA or Miami but if you expect a le every year, why even watch?
however, if certain players didn't choke hard versus OKC we probably make it to the Finals. also it is arguable that the Spurs have the league's best bench
also i completely disagree with the last part. burn them out right before the playoffs start? they need to be fresh for the playoffs, that certainly wasn't the issue last season. bottom line is, if the thunder don't go red-hot from midrange and someone like Danny Green steps up and hits his shots, Spurs advance. they were well rested and were ting on the league for awhile, everyone was clamoring about the spurs being a top all-time team. i think you need to just appreciate the Spurs for what they are. i don't think running them 40mpg before the playoffs or during the playoffs is the answer
this. The Spurs were really close last year and it just didn't go their way. Happens to the best of them. I don't see how the Spurs or Pop or RC could have put the players in any better situation than they did last season. Win our home games and we make it to the finals. Thunder got hot and eventually that wore down against Miami. Wasn't due to increased defense either. Harden got the same looks against Miami and all of a sudden couldn't hit.
The reason depth worked for the Mavs is because they had a legit superstar playing like a superstar. As amazing as TP was last season, we clearly saw he is no where near the level of a Dirk (or other prime superstar). That is not to knock TP, but you might have a shot to win with depth (although very rare) if you have a true superstar capable of beating any game plan.
Spurs do not have that which is why the path is faulty (not that it was all bad - they did reach the WCF and had a legit shot to win that).
I haven't expected a le since the Lakers beat us in 2008, but this team plays for the chance to win the le. It's what they're about. So therefore I decided to chime in with my 2 cents as to how to better compete in the playoffs.
I'm not saying that Pop should play the guys 40mpg right before the playoffs, even when the games are throw away games. That's ridiculous. Here, how about this:
Tim averages around 28mpg for the season, so why not bump him up to 30 in march, then 32 in april. That way playing around 36 minutes a game come playoff time won't be so much of a shock. Athletes are all about rhythm and habit after all.
Agreed. Also, Dirk played about 39mpg during the Mavs' 2011 championship run, so while the Mavs used their depth, they also made sure that their best player was on the court for almost the entire game.
Keep limiting the minutes during the regular season and bump it up once the playoffs start. Should usually at least have 5 games in the first round to play the guys some more minutes and get them ready for the heavy compe ion. If we can get the 1 seed we will likely avoid OKC and LAL until WCF. That gives two rounds to give the guys some more minutes in a game.
That's just my opinion. I don't see any reason to play our 35+ year olds more minutes in pointless games just to try and get them a little more conditioned. Just them being able to play once the playoffs begin is first priority at their age.
I don't think increasing their minutes a lot during the playoffs will help for a variety of reasons. You can't just condition a body to do something over several months, then expect to change that in a couple weeks. Just does not work like that. The other issue is that while guys like Tim and Manu have excellent per minute numbers, I firmly believe you would get severely diminished returns if you tried to expand their minutes. The reason they are able to be productive per minute is because they are at optimal playing time for their age/bodies. If you tried to go beyond that too much I think you would see a massive dip in their production on a per minute basis.
absolutely therefore the need to stick with what you were doing during the RS especially for a vet team like the spurs.
I understand the concept. I'm not saying that upping their minutes in a playoff series or two would have the same impact if you did it over a period of a few months. The risk involved when increasing their minutes over a couple months, in games that are meaningless, is not a risk I would want to take though.
However, I don't see how playing the guys more minutes in the playoffs compared to their regular season average would cause "massive" dips in production. They're other ways of keeping guys in relatively good shape without them having to play 5 on 5 and risk injury. Obviously, nothing compares to real game conditioning but the coaching staff should be doing other things off the court to make sure these guys can handle more minutes when it's needed.
And in reality, under both scenarios, our fate is still going to come down to our role players and how they perform.
Well I just use logic - I watch the games and see what happens when they tire out. It's not as if Pop won't play them more minutes on purpose. He knows that if you play them too many minutes they can't produce per minute like they do now. It's why he does not extend their minutes even in the playoffs IMO.
I agree - I was supporting your theory that there is no other option (unless trades come into play).
That is sort of a trick argument though.
Of course every team's bench's efficiency goes down in the postseason. You don't get to stat pad against bad teams. Every team in the playoffs is good unless you're a top 3 seed in the east, then your first round is pretty much a bye. It's expected that their production would go down. Tougher opponents.
Our bench sucked this year for two particular reasons. 1: We didn't have a real backup point guard (with TJ Ford retiring). 2: Ginobili got shifted back to the starting lineup which made our bench even worse.
As for Timmy. . .dude's old. Can't expect much more than 33 good minutes imo. I'm happy as we're even getting that. Duncan is still quality, but there'sonly so long he can perform that well. Much more than 33 and you're probably going to see a diminishing return. We just need better support in the post.
Mills has to pan out as our backup PG, Diaw and Green need to hit their open shots, and Splitter needs to finally step it up. I think those are our biggest needs/requirements right now to be successful. And everyone important has to be healthy of course.
I remember reading somebody's analysis a while back about championship teams and the amount of minutes their major players play. Basically we are below the limit mark for championship teams. Pop's been trying to prove his approach works for several years and I am not sure. It's a gray area and the injury excuse bugs me. Unless someone can show me a stat that says above a certain limit minute injuries increase dramatically I am not sure I buy his minute limits.
For bench depth to be really useful at playoff time I think it has to be on defense. If you can constantly throw new guys to wear down your opposition of the bench that has to have some effect. However if your bench guys don't play defense like the Spurs it's much less useful.
That's why you play defense. You can't hope for teams not to get hot at playoff time. There's always going to be some team that gets hot.
I'll go further than that and say the legitimate superstar needs to have a post game or move that allows him to get the shot he wants on demand. TP is still to easy to gameplan for. Pack the paint and hope the shooters miss. TP still can't beat that kind of defense. He has to hope the shooters hit their shots.
Good point. The Mavs probably would not have won if Dirk played a minute less. Maybe I can understand the arguments against playing Duncan and Manu more minutes but there is no reason Parker can't average 39 mpg when necessary except for the fact Pop babies him through the season. If TP was capable of playing more minutes we could have probably won the WCF because it means less Gary Neal and his poor defense.
good point. Since two of our Big 3--Manu and TP-- depend on slashing to the hoop, a collapsing zone to fill the lane will stop them. Manu, at least, has an outside 3pt. shot to fall back on, but TP doesn't and his short jumper wasn't falling.
Then add the absence of any production out of Diaw and Green and you wind up sitting at home.
They need it to give the TOSBs a chance to be healthy.
I think the bench being a negative come playoff time is exaggerated. They swept the first two rounds and went up 2-0... lost some close games in the back door sweep. OKC was just a really good team with Ibaka playing on a level we will never see him play at again. Taking statistics from one lost series and claiming that supports that a bench is fool's gold doesn't seem very intuitive. I could go to any series in the past and claim the losing team's formula doesn't work if statistics were completely telling.
Duncan will be 37 by next playoffs. It's unrealistic to expect him to play 36 intense playoff minutes. He can't play an entire game (even in his prime) like Lebron and Durant do. It's simple - SAS' main players are old and during playoff time, that means the Durants and Westbrookes go up against bench-type players for longer stretches = SAS losses.
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