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It's going to be closer than that. Obama will not be celebrating at 10pm this time. It will probably midnight or later until the winner is given the trophy.
Or rather 318...
Let's face facts, only Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are still in play. And, Virginia is quickly catching up to the other battleground states that have settled into the Obama column.
Obama will go into election day with significant enough leads in NV, CO, IA, MI, WI, NH, PA and OH. Although those states are portrayed as swing states, only CO and NH were ever really at risk. Romney's only hope was in Ohio and that ship has sailed.
The electoral vote count reasonably sits at O-290, R-191 with 57 in play in VA, NC and FL.
With Virginia looking better and better for Obama, the count would move to 303-191, with 44 EVs in play in NC and FL. As Obama's momentum increases, NC could easily follow VA as it did in 2008, which would give Obama 318-220.
I think 318-220 is the number, but I haven't given up on Florida quite yet....
It's going to be closer than that. Obama will not be celebrating at 10pm this time. It will probably midnight or later until the winner is given the trophy.
Maybe, but I think by 10 pm next Tuesday the race will have been decided...
What this race is amounting too..
The final nail in the Romney campaign coffin could come as early as tomorrow....let me explain..
Gallup tonight announced 7.0% unemployment....
Why does this matter? Because the Department of Labor Statistics numbers are usually very close to Gallups numbers anywhere from .1-.3% behind them. Here are some recent months comparison:
Oct 12 Gallup: 7% DoLS: ?
Sep 12 Gallup: 7.9% DoLS: 7.8%
Aug 12 Gallup: 8.1% DoLS: 8.1%
July 12 Gallup: 8% DoLS: 8.3%
June 12 Gallup: 7.8% DoLS: 8.2%
May 12 Gallup: 8% DoLS: 8.2%
So in essence, anything over 7.5% tomorrow would be a major anomaly
If it drops to 7.5% or less, no amount of 'cooking the books' propaganda is gonna bring Romney back from that...
Tomorrow's number will be 7.9%. I got 10 bucks on Romney for any takers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its numbers on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Same Bat-time, same Bat-channel.
So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.
http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 158,000 Jobs in October
Read more: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/N...ember2012.aspxRoseland, N.J. - November 1, 2012 - Private sector employment increased by 158,000 jobs from September to October, according to the October ADP National Employment Report, which is produced by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which, is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
Goods-producing employment rose by 14,000 jobs in October after declining in the two prior months. Gains in construction of 23,000 more than offset the 8,000 decline in manufactuering employment.
Service-providing jobs increased by 144,000. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, professional/business services had the largest gain with 35,000 jobs added over the month. Trade/transportation/utilities added 24,000 jobs and financial activities added 9,000 jobs in October.
12:01am central time or later on Wednesday
They are going to beat expectations, and then a week later by revised down to reality where they miss expectations.
dog and pony show
FWIW, I live in Pa; up to the past 5 days have heard NO presidential political ads.
This week, however, Romney is popping up on the airwaves with regularity. The ads are positive, pro-Romney, not anti Obama, also FWIW.
The (22 year removed) political science student in me, based on this evidence, would determine that Pa is now in play, and that Romney is not desperate (the more negative the ads, the more you are getting your ass kicked).
Pure anecdotal evidence, not based on polls - but just saying, I think your analysis might be flawed.
"Meanwhile, Mr. Obama continues to hold the lead in the vast majority of polls in Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, the states that represent his path of least resistance toward winning the Electoral College. This was particularly apparent on Wednesday, a day when there were a remarkable number of polls, 27, released in the battleground states."
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ding-in-polls/
Silver also gives a 96% chance of Dems winning PA.
“I think it means the Romney-Ryan campaign is desperate to figure out how to win this race outside of the states that they’ve been contesting it in for 15 months,” Gibbs said on CBS’ “This Morning.” “I think that’s all Pennsylvania is for the Romney-Ryan campaign. Look, John McCain spent the last weekend of 2008 in Pennsylvania in a desperate attempt to do this as well.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories...#ixzz2B4s5S2M4
I lived here then as well. I don't remember it that way. But whatever - kind of a pointless exercise; we'll all know on Tuesday one way or another.
"McCain will pick up Pennsylvania." -- Mitt Romney 11/03/2008
"McCain will pick up Pennsylvania." -- Mitt Romney 11/03/2008
Marked...
I think the score card in the end is going to shock the world.
Yay for more war!
So, regardless of who wins the house is not going to change its position. How are we going to get past the grid lock or is four more years of the same congressional politics just fine with everyone?
Whoever wins will have leverage. They'll wait till the last minute but they'll get a deal done so the sequester/tax increases don't go into place. If Romney wins we'll see all the tax cuts that were supposed to expire in 2010 extented permanently. If Obama wins well see the tax cuts extend for people making less than 250k. Regardless of who wins the automatic spending cuts put into law as a result of the super committee will basically be undone.
Over the next term, well like see more comprehensive tax and en lement reform under either.
romney is bound to lose the election he's now working his ass off only to save some face for himself by avoiding a landslide defeat imho
late night update: Pretty important here....first of all, Obama seems to now own a small projected lead in Florida where he has won 4 out of 5 of the latest polls...
Also, Nate Silver just updated Obama's chances of winning Tuesday to 83.7%....
The last 5....
Hey, ho, way to go Ohio...Polls 538 WT. Date Dem Rep Margin
Ipsos (online) 11/2 47.0 45.0 Obama +2.0
NBC/Marist 11/1 51.0 45.0 Obama +6.0
CNN/Opinion Research * 11/1 47.0 44.0 Obama +3.0
We Ask America 11/1 50.2 45.8 Obama +4.4
Ipsos (online) 11/1 47.0 45.0 Obama +2.
How many people know that is Rush's bumper music?
She's 56 in this photo:
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