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Brother, less than 72 hours away. No use in debating polls at this point. God bless
No, it's not "pretty much tied in the polls" if you know how the electoral college works.
Brother, less than 72 hours away. No use in debating polls at this point. God bless
im really suprised cnn decided to do their last poll as a national one. a waste of money. an ohio one would have been more helpful even if was a couple of days after just doing one.
Dude you are the king of trying to talk out of both sides of your mouth. You "predict" an Obama win then talk about nothing but how close it is and how Romney might win blah blah blah blah blah.
I don't think you understand about communication and you can't just say one thing and not mean it and somehow have it override all the other bull you spew. I can only imagine how brutal life must be for your wife.
CNN's trying to make it seem closer than it is. All the networks are. Its exactly what they did in 2008. They need ratings for the night so they try to make it seem as though its a toss up. I wish I could find the place I saw a video of all the pundits in 2008 saying that it was close but then reversing and saying that Obama was always a lock to win a few hours later when they had called it on election night. Its so ridiculous but they don't get called on it.
at neocons just now deciding that there's "no use in debating polls anymore" while Barry's stepping up in the clutch...
Willard = fcked
Silly boy. We have discussed political polls in here for many, many years. I am one of the few on spurstalk that actually believe in them. God bless
Willard = f
Was that the poll with a D+11 sample?
Nothing absurd about that.
If they have to over sample Dems to "make it seem closer than it really is", I don't know what that says about reality.
Recently, I've kind of assumed Romney had a shot because the economy sucks so bad; in bents lose when the economy sucks.
However, I haven't been paying close enough attention. This really comes down, in a large part, to Ohio - Romney doesn't win that, he doesn't win.
Unemployment is Ohio is 7% - beating the ntl average by a significant margin.
It DOES come down to economy, and in the state that means the most, Obama's doing O.K.
An unpopular, unsuccessful president is about to get re-elected.
For those of you keeping score, that defines two of the last three elections.
If you don't think the system is broken, you're not paying attention.
I disagree with most of your posts but this is a total truth bomb.
Leave it to science to take all the mystery out of something.
Hey, the election is the only stimulus that the republicans will go along with right now, let CNN have it.
What's broken is not the system, but the people running it, and the total lack of choice we have when it comes to the two major parties' candidates...
The system isn't broken, we just suck as voters. We've lowered our standards to the point where all it takes to be "qualified" is to not be the other guy. This election isn't even "Obama" vs. "Romney", it's "not Obama" vs. "not Romney".
DOK with the backhand
IMO, all of those factors part of "the system".
Not sure this is actually true. Does the average person really think that either Obama or Romney is a good choice? I think they do. I think the lesser of two evils choice is one made among people who are more plugged into politics but I don't necessarily think that the average voter goes into the booth with the same mindset.
From a person who lives in a "Swing" state - (Pa); the campaigns JUST started advertising in the past week; my phone rings, literally, 10 times a day with a recorded message (was a registered Republican 'til 08, so I'm on their list) - my son, now 18, is a registered Independent - so that gets the house on another list; the phone calls DO NOT tell us WHY to vote for one of the candidates, they tell us why to not vote for the other candidate. The bazillion TV and radio ads; same thing. I think you're wrong on this one, Manny.
No backhand intended tbhDOK with the backhand
Sure but thats because making you afraid of the other candidate is a more effective campaign tactic than telling you how good their candidate is. That and what I said are not mutually exclusive.
EDIT: Not to mention that due to campaign finance laws a lot of groups spending money on the campaigns can't advocate a candidate unless they register as a PAC. They CAN spend money on "issues" campaigning without doing so and then their donors get to remain hidden. I can almost guarantee you that most of the calls you're getting are of this variety.
5 Signs Romney is Getting Desperate
November 5, 2012 |
The presidential race is down to the wire, with only one day left of campaigning. President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are criss-crossing through swing states, holding rallies to turn out their base and convince undecided voters, if there are any left, to vote for them.
The polls, though, continue show a solid lead for President Obama, particularly in the Electoral College race. And that means it’s time for the Romney-Ryan campaign to get desperate--which is exactly what they’ve been doing.
Here are 5 recent examples of how the Romney campaign’s desperation is shining through.
1. Talking Up ‘Judeo-Christian Values’
As AlterNet's Adele Stan reports [3], on a campaign phone call to evangelicals Sunday night, vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan took it back to basics: ginning up fear over alleged threats to “Christian values” in a bid to turn out his base. Politico reports that Ryan told [4] the evangelicals that President Obama has gone down a “dangerous path.”
“It's a path that grows government, restricts freedom and liberty and compromises those values, those Judeo-Christian values that made us such a great and exceptional nation in the first place,” Ryan said.
The “tele-town hall” garnered the participation of thousands of callers, Politico reports.
2. Campaigning in Pennsylvania
Mitt Romney has been seriously campaigning in Pennsylvania recently, but others see it as a sign of desperation meant to make the Obama campaign pour resources into a state they have safely locked up.
Yesterday evening saw the latest instance of Romney landing in Pennsylvania to campaign. But the polls show that Obama continues to lead in the state. So even if Romney was trying to make a serious play, rather than a head-fake, at Pennsylvania, it still smacks of desperation. As Nate Silver of the New York Times points out, [5] “Mr. Romney’s chances of pulling out a victory in Pennsylvania are slim.” But he’s still looking for votes in all the places he can.
3. Lying about Jeep Production
The Romney campaign has been touring the coveted swing-state of Ohio, and has taken to telling bald-faced lies in an effort to win the state. The latest: a claim that Chrysler was going to move production of Jeep vehicles to China.
“I saw a story today that one of the great manufacturers in this state, Jeep — now owned by the Italians — is thinking of moving all production to China,” Romney told an Ohio crowd in late October. Soon after, an ad was out claiming that Obama “sold Chrysler to Italians who are going to build Jeeps in China.”
But the ad and claim was wholly misleading. As a Washington Post fact-check points out, [6] “the overall message of the ad is clearly misleading — especially since it appears to have been designed to piggyback off of Romney’s gross misstatement that Chrysler was moving Ohio factory jobs to China.” Chrysler has insisted that the company has “no intention of shifting production of its Jeep models out of North America to China.”
4. Blaming Hurricane Sandy
When you’re down and out in the polls, it reeks of desperation to begin to blame your woes on anything other than your campaign or your opponent’s campaign. And of course, that’s what the Republican Party and some within the Romney campaign have begun to do.
Talking Points Memo reports [7] that the right is “roundly describing the devastating storm as the critical event that halted their candidate’s upswing in the polls, which give Obama a clear advantage [8] in the electoral college math.”
CBS News reported that Romney “campaign sources concede superstorm Sandy stalled Romney’s momentum.” And Karl Rove, a Romney booster, told the Washington Post that “if you hadn’t had the storm, there would have been more of a chance for the [Mitt] Romney campaign to talk about the deficit, the debt, the economy.”
5. Casting Doubt on Polls
When all else fails, blame the numbers. And that’s exactly what the right and the Romney campaign have been doing recently.
As Joshua Holland recently reports in AlterNet, [9] “Republicans have decided that all the available evidence must be wrong and that Mitt Romney is headed for a certain victory next Tuesday.” Part of the reason for this is that “people like to vote for winners, and if they believe their candidate is likely to go down in defeat, they may decide to stay home and do some laundry next Tuesday.”
The Romney campaign has joined in on the poll-bashing. For instance, they’ve joined in with the right’s new hobby of casting doubt on New York Times numbers guru, Nate Silver.
BuzzFeed reports [10] that Romney strategist Stuart Stevens told the website that “In the primary we'd go from having close to zero chance, to winning a state, to 80 percent [likelihood] within some short period of time” in Silver’s polling model.
http://www.alternet.org/news-amp-pol...ting-desperate
Gotta disagree. Even the campaigns themselves have made this race all about not being the other guy. Neither campaign is touting their own merits, Romney is running on Obama's crappy record and Obama is running on Bush's crappy record.
So in 2008, you would say that the majority of people who voted for Obama thought he was a good candidate, right? Yet, aside from the catch phrases of Hope and Change the vast majority of campaignign was done showing how McCain would be more Bush. , even the catch phrases were about that. Negative campaigning is more due to its effectiveness as opposed to whether or not an electorate has good views about their candidate.
Morris.
"Previously, in discussing the race with Bill O’Reilly of Fox News, Morris said Romney will win the election by 5 to 10 points in the popular vote and would carry more than 300 electoral votes.
"It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history," Morris told van Susteren. "It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit."
Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says
October 4, 2012 •
Social Sciences
An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.
“Sometime after the crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president,” Rove wrote on Wednesday night. “Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.”
He argued that Romney has a “small but persistent polling edge,” leading in 19 of the 31 national surveys released in the last week, he said, and the GOP candidate “was at or above 50 percent in 10 polls, Obama in none.” President Barack Obama was ahead in seven of the polls, Rove said, and five were tied.
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