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  1. #26
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    While I'm 100% in favor of spending more money on infrastructure, there's a long lag time between deciding to spend a bunch of money on infrastructure and actually spending it. As we saw with the 2009 stimulus, the "shovel ready" concept towards immediate job creation is a myth. A "shovel ready" project is something small, like a park or some sidewalk improvements, and there aren't nearly enough of those projects to make a noticeable difference. The big infrastructure projects that spur a noticeable increase in economic activity aren't going to get designed until the money to build them is available. Not trying to shoot down the idea that we should spend a bunch of money on infrastructure, but any noticeable stimulative effect from doing so would be years away.

    There's also a "funnel effect" that would dilute the stimulative effect. IIRC, infrastructure is only about a $200 billion / yr industry. It's not like you can just drop a couple trillion and expect it all to get spent in a few years.

    As for the debt side, even at record low interest rates net interest on the debt is still running us over $200 billion a year. And that's before we have to start borrowing money to pay back social security when they need to start cashing their holdings in. When interest rates do start to go up, that $200 billion will start rising exponentially. According to the latest proposed budget for FY 2013 (page 6) that net interest is already expected to triple by 2020 before tacking on that additional $5T you think we should borrow.
    Then we should get started.

    5T is just off the top of my ass.

    We need to throw money at this problem, and that needs to start with setting priorities and gathering enough information about what needs to happen. If we have to commit and earmark (oh yeah, I went there) money for it in the future then let's do so.

  2. #27
    W4A1 143 43CK? Nbadan's Avatar
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    What happened to the inflation hawks?

  3. #28
    W4A1 143 43CK? Nbadan's Avatar
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    For the record, I think that throwing too much money, either through a new, too-large stimulus or through a combination of lower taxes and a new stimulus could be inflationary and also lead to even higher crude oil prices......Growth under 3% is not the end of the world....growth at 5% or over might be....

  4. #29
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    There's also a "funnel effect" that would dilute the stimulative effect. IIRC, infrastructure is only about a $200 billion / yr industry. It's not like you can just drop a couple trillion and expect it all to get spent in a few years.
    Not only the "funnel effect," but such stimulus in the end is probably only better than "trickle down" because we have infrastructure to show for it afterwards. But... At how much debt for our progeny?

  5. #30
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    renewing, expanding, making "smart" the ancient, ty electrical grid is probably several $1T
    You want subsidies for the energy companies?
    sewers and water systems, esp in the older cities, a few more $T
    That's what proper taxes and sewer rates are for. Aren't these cities spending their money right? You really want redistribution of such tax dollars?
    French-style TGV train between the population centers already defined, a few $100B (esp in TX)
    Severe cost overruns. Endless tax subsidies as the actual ride costs far exceed ticket prices. Why do you want more endless debt?
    extending solar and wind tax credits for 10 years minimum would have immediate effect.
    Why don't we just buy people like CC more battery carts with tax subsidies?
    A national clearing house to coordinate the best ways, equipment for residential/commerical solar feed-in systems would continue/stimulate $100Bs more in rooftop solar.
    Why don't you believe in the free market?
    Paying for doctors' and nurses' educations in return for 20+ years as govt medical employees. Giving complete exemption for income tax for 20 years for doctors and nurses who locate to underserverd areas.
    Why only their profession? Why not tax exempt yours and mine?
    1000s of decrepit bridges
    We have a road tax for such repairs.
    setup a national bank as a non-profit public utility.
    Hail Hitler... Nationalize everything!
    expand medicare to hard-core public insurance option with govt owned/run/manned hospitals, clinics.
    Do you mean medicaid?

  6. #31
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    The interest rate doesn't generally change for decades.

    I could live with paying negative interest rates for decades.
    Random...

    What do you know that we don't?

  7. #32
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    Fixed:
    Then we should get started.

    5T is just off the top of my ass.

    We need to throw more money in the fire, and that needs to start with setting priorities and gathering enough information about how much faster we want to fail. If we have to commit and earmark (oh yeah, I went there) all our children's future money, then let's do so.

  8. #33
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Random...

    What do you know that we don't?
    In your case, quite a bit. :p


    Seriously though, not all the rates on t-bills have been lower than inflation, but some of the auctions have produced yields there, and they continue to hover around that line now.

    To be fair, and honest, a good deal of the demand has been from the Fed's activities, and even the Fed cannot expand its balance sheet forever.

  9. #34
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Says the guy who oh-so-cavelierly commits his children's money to the bet that CO2 emissions won't have an actual effect on our climate.

    I don't mind committing my kid's money on I know will be around for them and thier kids to use.

    Maddow's suggestion about something fairly straightforward, such as buried power cables, would seem to be something that most New Englanders would think a good investment right about now.

  10. #35
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    For the record, I think that throwing too much money, either through a new, too-large stimulus or through a combination of lower taxes and a new stimulus could be inflationary and also lead to even higher crude oil prices......Growth under 3% is not the end of the world....growth at 5% or over might be....
    Higher crude prices are probably a good thing for the US, given how much natgas we are producing, and how much said prices would end up moving manufacturing back to the US. Growth over 5%, would be not a likely thing at all, from what I understand, but hardly be the "end of thd world".

  11. #36
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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  12. #37
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    Repugs have been whining about the inflation risk, in bad faith of course, from (any more) stimulus spending, for 4 years.

    The economy still sucks, "23 million" at un- or underemployed, and there's no (demand) inflation.

  13. #38
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  14. #39
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    How many of those times, like the debt financed during the Carter years, had higher interest rates to pay back when the bonds can to term, like in the Reagan years?

    It would be more appropriate to look at what presidency financed how much at what rate, and if it came due during his presidency, or the next.

  15. #40
    Scrumtrulescent
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    It would be more appropriate to look at what presidency financed how much at what rate, and if it came due during his presidency, or the next.
    .............because we all know that Presidents have complete and absolute control over interest rates.

  16. #41
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    In CBO's most recent projections, which assume that current laws remain the same, annual deficits decline from the $1.3 trillion recorded in 2010, but the ulative deficit from 2011 through 2020 exceeds $6.2 trillion. Borrowing to finance that deficit--in combination with an expected rise in interest rates--would lead to a fourfold increase in net interest payments over the next 10 years, from $197 billion in 2010 to $778 billion in 2020. As a percentage of GDP, net interest outlays would more than double during that period, rising from 1.4 percent to 3.4 percent.
    3.4% of GDP to finance the projected debt. Hardly an Apocalyptic prediction.

  17. #42
    "The ball don't lie." dbestpro's Avatar
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    It's the favorite game in America. It's called "Kick the Can".

    If you kick the can far enough you won't have to worry about it, but your kids will. Of course we don't really care too much about the kids now a days, anyway. Crumb snatchers just get in the way of an IPAD purchase.

  18. #43
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    If you kick the can far enough you won't have to worry about it, but your kids will.
    How do "the kids" will have to worry about it?

  19. #44
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    It's the favorite game in America. It's called "Kick the Can".

    If you kick the can far enough you won't have to worry about it, but your kids will. Of course we don't really care too much about the kids now a days, anyway. Crumb snatchers just get in the way of an IPAD purchase.
    Eyup.

    Don't tax you, don't tax me, tax that man behind the tree!

    Raise my taxes, pay down the debt. I can bear a sacrifice for that.

    Now see what happens to the first politician that says "I am going to raise your taxes".

    GMAFB.

  20. #45
    Scrumtrulescent
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    3.4% of GDP to finance the projected debt. Hardly an Apocalyptic prediction.
    Remember that whole debt ceiling armaggedon circus? That was over, what, $1T of cuts and/or taxes over a 10 year period where our ulative GDP would be in the $150T range, give or take? That's only 0.6% of GDP and democrats and republicans were ready to set themselves on fire over it. A 2% of GDP increase in net interest expenses over the next 8 years is a way bigger deal than you're making it out to be.

  21. #46
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Remember that whole debt ceiling armaggedon circus? That was over, what, $1T of cuts and/or taxes over a 10 year period where our ulative GDP would be in the $150T range, give or take? That's only 0.6% of GDP and democrats and republicans were ready to set themselves on fire over it. A 2% of GDP increase in net interest expenses over the next 8 years is a way bigger deal than you're making it out to be.
    Sort of.

    Not an apocalypse, but then not something that I think should be shrugged off, either.

    I am of the opinion that we need to do something to cut our overall debt load. I just don't think it is the end of the world if we don't do that right away.

  22. #47
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    3.4% of GDP to finance the projected debt. Hardly an Apocalyptic prediction.
    Really?

    1.4% to 3.4%. Now factor in exponential growth!

    When does it start going down? How long until the interest will be 100% of GDP at these rates of growth?

  23. #48
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Really?

    1.4% to 3.4%. Now factor in exponential growth!

    How long until the interest will be 100% of GDP at these rates of growth?
    Never.

    Easy question.


    As for when it starts going down, that is up to us, isn't it?

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