Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst 12345
Results 101 to 122 of 122
  1. 11-05-2012 #101
    ploto
    Esse quam videri ploto's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Post Count
    10,994
    Well, tomorrow we will see how close Nate Silver is.

    Popular Vote
    Obama 50.9%
    Romney 48.2 %

    Obama:
    Ohio
    Wisconsin
    Nevada
    Iowa
    New Hampshire
    Colorado
    Virginia

    Florida is listed as a toss up but he gives the slight edge to Obama (53% chance of Obama winning Florida)

    Romney:
    North Carolina

    A month ago it was pretty hard to conceive of Obama winning 8/9 of these states - or even 7/9, but that is what he is predicting. From what I have read, the Romney camp really thought they would win Iowa for sure. I am curious about Colorado.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote ploto is offline
  2. 11-05-2012 #102
    DJ Mbenga
    I am not redwood DJ Mbenga's Avatar
    My Team
    Los Angeles Lakers
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Post Count
    4,579
    Im not so sure about florida, especially with what we have seen, florida does mantain its reputaiton very well. i know the arguments 8 hours that sucks, the other is well if people are willing to wait 4 hours to vote that must entail enthusiasm.
    i wouldnt put obamas chances of winning at 92, just at like 70. 08 was so based on enthusiasm and in this year its hard to quantify that. if it was just registered voters obama would win in a beatdown.
    the enthusiasm gap really hits home in ohio. obama has the auto bailout advantage and then romney has the "we aint voting for you its against obama" votes. hard to inspire other people to hop along if they dont despite him.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote DJ Mbenga is offline
  3. 11-05-2012 #103
    DUNCANownsKOBE
    on instagram, str8 flexin DUNCANownsKOBE's Avatar
    My Team
    Phoenix Suns
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Post Count
    19,109
    Quote Originally Posted by ploto
    Polls are all over the place in Florida:

    NBC Obama 49-47

    PPP Obama 50-49

    Reuters 47-47

    Mason Dixon has Romney up by 5
    I think Romney pandering to Netanyahu has given him enough of the Miami Beach Jew vote where Obama is gonna need a huge black voter turnout in Florida to have a chance. We'll see I guess.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote DUNCANownsKOBE is offline
  4. 11-05-2012 #104
    ploto
    Esse quam videri ploto's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Post Count
    10,994
    People must be pretty inspired if they will wait in line 6 hours to vote. Actually, I think they are pissed, but that is a good motivator, as well.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote ploto is offline
  5. 11-05-2012 #105
    DarrinS
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    42,561
    Quote Originally Posted by FuzzyLumpkins
    So if the model had existed --which it did not-- at the time of those elections then if they had made a prediction based on the model it would have been correct.

    Are you familiar with the term 'predicted' or better yet the notion of how past tense works. Past tense means sometime in the past the action took place. Predict means to make known in advance. Had the model sometime in the past made known in advance an election?

    This is why I am an asshole to you. You claim to be an engineer. Do you have any notion of how models are built or how data is correlated to events? You should. Either you are stupid or you are intentionally misleading.
    Hey dumbass, I already admitted I was wrong. Stalker alert.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote DarrinS is offline
  6. 11-05-2012 #106
    MannyIsGod
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Post Count
    57,943
    Which part of the model do you have a problem with, Darrin?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote MannyIsGod is offline
  7. 11-05-2012 #107
    MannyIsGod
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Post Count
    57,943
    He has Florida as a complete toss up. The margin of error in his model is 2.7 for that state and the margin of victory for Obama is .2 so you really can't say which way its going.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote MannyIsGod is offline
  8. 11-05-2012 #108
    DarrinS
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    42,561
    Quote Originally Posted by MannyIsGod
    Which part of the model do you have a problem with, Darrin?
    The input. Sorry, but I don't have much faith in the polling data.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote DarrinS is offline
  9. 11-05-2012 #109
    ChumpDumper
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Post Count
    154,411
    Quote Originally Posted by DarrinS
    The input. Sorry, but I don't have much faith in the polling data.
    What in your experience has led you to that conclusion?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote ChumpDumper is offline
  10. 11-06-2012 #110
    MannyIsGod
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Post Count
    57,943
    Quote Originally Posted by DarrinS
    The input. Sorry, but I don't have much faith in the polling data.
    Because its long history of being an accurate indicator of who will win?



    Sounds about right from you. Discount the tool that has been been an accurate indicator for decades because you don't like what it tells you.

    Par for the course. Don't ever change, Darrin.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote MannyIsGod is offline
  11. 11-06-2012 #111
    kamikazi_player
    I'm the greatest kamikazi_player's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    3,545
    He has a new one up. It looks like his official polling.

    315.2-222.8 in favor of Obama

    And he has Obama at a 53 percent chance of taking Florida
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote kamikazi_player is offline
  12. 11-06-2012 #112
    kamikazi_player
    I'm the greatest kamikazi_player's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    3,545
    also 92 percent chance that Obama wins
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote kamikazi_player is offline
  13. 11-06-2012 #113
    FuzzyLumpkins
    Believe.
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Post Count
    22,886
    Quote Originally Posted by DarrinS
    Hey dumbass, I already admitted I was wrong. Stalker alert.
    Again, it's obvious that you were wrong. I am still waiting for an explanation as to why you thought that a paper that never mentioned that it predicted that and clearly stated that it was retroactively correct instead said that it had predicted the former. We know that oyu were wrong. What I am trying to figure out is how you came to the incorrect conclusions.

    It's pretty evident that you did not read the paper or you are intentionally lying. Did you get it from a mailer who was trying to mislead us or were you trying to mislead us? Or did the conclusion that you came to magically appear in your head?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote FuzzyLumpkins is offline
  14. 11-06-2012 #114
    kamikazi_player
    I'm the greatest kamikazi_player's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    3,545
    I think Obama wins all of the swing states except North Carolina and Florida.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote kamikazi_player is offline
  15. 11-06-2012 #115
    FuzzyLumpkins
    Believe.
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Post Count
    22,886
    And let's be clear Darrin. If you are going to come on here and post intentionally misleading material as you are wont to do then I am going to 'stalk' you. Might as well get used to it and putting me on ignore won't make me stop as I do it for the benefit of the truth or at least an attempt at trying to find it.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote FuzzyLumpkins is offline
  16. 11-06-2012 #116
    Winehole23
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    113,926
    Quote Originally Posted by FuzzyLumpkins
    Again, it's obvious that you were wrong. I am still waiting for an explanation as to why you thought that a paper that never mentioned that it predicted that and clearly stated that it was retroactively correct instead said that it had predicted the former. We know that oyu were wrong. What I am trying to figure out is how you came to the incorrect conclusions.
    It's doesn't matter how Darrin gets the wrong answer, that's a commonplace. What's unusual is him acknowledging it.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote Winehole23 is offline
  17. 11-07-2012 #117
    ploto
    Esse quam videri ploto's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Post Count
    10,994
    Quote Originally Posted by ploto
    Well, tomorrow we will see how close Nate Silver is.

    Popular Vote
    Obama 50.9%
    Romney 48.2 %

    Looking pretty close. Obama looks to hit 50%.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote ploto is offline
  18. 11-07-2012 #118
    DUNCANownsKOBE
    on instagram, str8 flexin DUNCANownsKOBE's Avatar
    My Team
    Phoenix Suns
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Post Count
    19,109
    Quote Originally Posted by ploto
    Well, tomorrow we will see how close Nate Silver is.

    Popular Vote
    Obama 50.9%
    Romney 48.2 %

    Obama:
    Ohio
    Wisconsin
    Nevada
    Iowa
    New Hampshire
    Colorado
    Virginia

    Florida is listed as a toss up but he gives the slight edge to Obama (53% chance of Obama winning Florida)

    Romney:
    North Carolina

    A month ago it was pretty hard to conceive of Obama winning 8/9 of these states - or even 7/9, but that is what he is predicting. From what I have read, the Romney camp really thought they would win Iowa for sure. I am curious about Colorado.
    It's hysterical how accurate all of this was while conservatives were turning Silver into a punching bag when he probably gave Romney too much of a chance
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote DUNCANownsKOBE is offline
  19. 11-07-2012 #119
    MannyIsGod
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Post Count
    57,943
    Turns out that polls that have been statistically incredibly accurate for decades remain statistically accurate even if you close your eyes and concentrate really hard while repeating "romney will win" over and over again.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote MannyIsGod is offline
  20. 11-07-2012 #120
    boutons_deux
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    97,536
    Quote Originally Posted by MannyIsGod
    Turns out that polls that have been statistically incredibly accurate for decades remain statistically accurate even if you close your eyes and concentrate really hard while repeating "romney will win" over and over again.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote boutons_deux is offline
  21. 11-07-2012 #121
    Ashy Larry
    Dryer than Kunta's ankles Ashy Larry's Avatar
    My Team
    Los Angeles Lakers
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Post Count
    3,802
    lol @ rasmussen poll - plus 5 for Mitt ........


    nate silver 2016
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote Ashy Larry is offline
« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Forum Rules