Rockets: Were we wrong about Harden?

[ginobili's bald spot]

Who is "we"? I told you guys in the other thread that you are idiots and Harden is a baller. Like I said, the basketball IQ on spurstalk is extremely low.

[Clipper Nation]

"Even though Presti and Bennett are tightwads, I still have to defend everything OKCheap does"

[benefactor]

Mel...reeling in thunderfan...and droppin' him in the livewell.

[thunderfan]

So, after telling me that you didn't care what I thought, you go on another long, hysterical tirade that just proves my point. Son, you may think that you're mentally tough, but your posts are written in the style of an emo, 13 year old girl.

One more thing. If you don't realize that you're a Presti apologist, the you're completely delusional.

Comedy gold.

That's fine. I'm trying to explain my thinking regarding the Harden trade. If you choose to continue personal insults, knock yourself out. This is a message board about basketball and nothing more to me. I'm not interested in personal attacks. I simply state my opinion. If you choose to disagree with personal insults rather than a discussion surrounding basketball, then that's your choice. I do hope you have a nice evening.

[Kai]

[Latarian Milton]

Where's my excuse? And what is my excuse? I'm not making an excuse. You're 100% wrong, buddy. Would I have rather Harden stayed? YES. Am I angry or upset that he didn't? NO. I concede that I don't know everything about running an NBA franchise. I concede that Presti was in a position and did what he thought was best. I also understand that James Harden possibly made the best long-term decision for himself. There's no excuses or anger. Just a simple failure for me to fully understand why Harden seemingly had such a big issue with the 1 hour deadline, given all I've said. I don't think Harden knew what he wanted. Ive said for months to my fellow fans that I felt perhaps he wanted to leave and be the big dog somewhere, out of KD and RW's shadow - understandable. Maybe his indecision and inability to be able to accept in 1 hour was indeed a blessing in disguise for him. When push comes to shove and you can't jump at the decision to stay in OKC for what amounted to $2M off the max per year, maybe that's the sign that you want out - again, understandable given his talent and what he could do as a franchise player.

agree on everything you said except that Harden has made the right longterm decision for himself. looks to me he has jeopardised his future by joining a team where he'll never be the #1 guy but will always take the most criticism when the team lose. he might be a good franchise player elsewhere but there's no way a could succeed playing this role on the rockets team imho

[LkrFan]

Greatest gif eveeeeerrrrrrrrrrr!!

[LkrFan]

Oh snap!

[AaronY]

ESPN Insider article about Harden from today I found interesting:


Is Harden really a No. 1 option?
Beyond his hot start in Houston, Harden excels against elite compe ion





Should we have seen this coming?


After coming off the bench for the Oklahoma City Thunder and having to share the ball with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, James Harden is flourishing in his role as the Houston Rockets' No. 1 option. He is averaging a staggering 35.3 points per game on 52.9 percent shooting while dishing out 6.3 assists and grabbing 6.3 boards. His player efficiency rating (PER) was 26.0.

Three games in and everyone wants to know: Is "Beardsanity" a fluke or is it for real?

My answer: Harden has done this before, so we shouldn't be surprised by his dominance. Plus, we've been blinded by our undying reverence for per-game averages and the star talents of Durant and Westbrook.

Harden's average of 16.8 points per game last season doesn't scream "bona fide NBA star," but it also tells us next to nothing about his ability to be a No. 1 option.


Why? First, his scoring average was artificially deflated due to playing time; Harden played only 31.4 minutes per game thanks to Oklahoma City's strategy of bringing him off the bench, which is abnormal for a player of his caliber. For example, Harden's Team USA teammates averaged 36.4 minutes per game last season. Harden is averaging 41.7 minutes per game in his first three contests this season, and we're seeing what he can do when he's treated like a star in the minutes column -- even if his playing time is unsustainably high.

Second, this season, Harden doesn't have to share the ball with two other ball-dominant players. There's no doubt that playing next to Durant and Westbrook can have its legitimate advantages (goodbye, double-teams!), but the hard truth is that sharing the court with those two stars absolutely slaughtered Harden's numbers.

Harden's hidden stats
We hear it all the time: Context is everything. When it comes to the fascinating case of Harden, this axiom nails it on the head. Let's start with a baseline. Harden scored 19.3 points per 36 minutes last season. Not bad. Using NBA.com's advanced stats page, we can see how Harden's numbers change depending on whether Durant or Westbrook was on the court, but not both. That takes some digging inside the incredible StatsCube Excel database.

So how did Harden do when he played with both Durant and Westbrook on the court?

A measly 13.3 points per 36 minutes.


Yes, that's it. You know who scored 13.3 points per 36 minutes last season? Brandon Rush. Further, Harden played next to Westbrook and Durant for the bulk of his playing time -- 60 percent of his overall minutes. And contrary to popular belief, playing the third wheel didn't help his percentages. Harden shot just 46 percent from the floor when the Olympian trio took the court, down from his overall 49 percent.

Let's go deeper inside the numbers.

What about when Harden was the second fiddle? Here, we're talking about two scenarios: First, playing next to Durant without Westbrook; and second, playing next to Westbrook without Durant. If you watched the Thunder last season, you know that the former happened a lot, but the latter didn't. Thunder coach Scott Brooks rarely paired Harden and Westbrook together without Durant there to stabilize the attack.

Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images
Even with Durant and Westbrook on the Thunder, Harden flashed alpha-dog potential.
So, what was Harden's scoring rate per 36 minutes with just Durant? 22.8 points on 49 percent shooting in 250 minutes. And with just Westbrook? 22.3 points on 55 percent shooting in just 63 minutes, an admittedly very small sample size. The subtraction of one ball-dominant star from the equation added nearly 10 points to Harden's scoring rate. This makes sense, but it's helpful to actually put numbers behind the "sharing the ball" concept.

And now, here comes the juicy part: Examining Harden as the alpha dog, when he was released from the shackles of Durant's and Westbrook's ball-dominance.

What was Harden's scoring rate when he was the clear No. 1 option last season?

Try 32.6 points per 36 minutes.


You read that correctly; when defenses keyed in on Harden as the No. 1 option, Harden responded by scoring like Michael Jordan, and he shot 53 percent from the floor in these situations. Plus, it gets better: Harden dished out 6.2 assists per 36 minutes, up from his normal rate of 4.3 assists. And remember, he was racking up all those assists by feeding the likes of Royal Ivey, Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed.


To recap: Harden as third wheel -- 13.3 points per 36 minutes; Harden as second fiddle -- about 22.5 points per 36 minutes; and Harden as No. 1 option -- 32.6 points per 36 minutes.

Really an alpha dog?
James Harden per 36 minutes by teammate


Teammate MIN PTS REB AST FG% 3FG% FT% 3PA fga fta
Both 1163 13.3 4.5 3.6 46 39 83 4.6 8.8 4.1
Alone 460 32.6 4.7 6.2 53 39 83 7.1 18.2 13.1
Durant only 250 22.8 5.5 3.6 49 40 96 6.2 13.2 7.6
Westbrook only 63 22.3 4.6 5.1 55 50 81 4.6 11.4 9.1
TOTAL 1936 19.4 4.7 4.3 49 39 85 5.4 11.7 6.9
Alpha dog dominance against all compe ion
So maybe we shouldn't be surprised to see alpha dog Harden taking over the league. He has already excelled in that role before, but you couldn't see it from the treetops.


Now, I know what you're thinking: Of course he dominated against second units. This seems like a reasonable rebuttal. After all, Harden faced some iffy lineups when he anchored Oklahoma City's second unit. Anyone will look like a superstar when he is going against a team of benchwarmers, right?


Well, what if I told you that he dominated against starter-caliber lineups, too?


This is the most fascinating finding when we put Harden's production under the microscope. Using ESPN.com's 2012 #NBArank feature as a barometer for player quality, every unit that Harden played against was given an average rating based on each player's #NBArank score. (For those who aren't familiar, #NBArank asked more than 100 of our contributors to rank each player on a scale of 1 to 10; LeBron James checked out at 9.9 while Eddy Curry was given a 1.2 score on the bottom end.)


With this tool, we can see how Harden did according to the strength of his opponent. To qualify as a "good" lineup, the unit had to average a 5.0 rating or higher. As expected, the majority of lineups that Harden faced as the alpha dog did not measure up. Of the 460 minutes that Harden starred as the alpha dog, only 106 were against above-average lineups.


Let's peel off another layer and look at Harden's production as a No. 1 option against good lineups.


Somehow, Harden did even better against tougher compe ion: He scored 35.0 points every 36 minutes and shot 50.8 percent from the floor, including an eye-popping 48 percent from beyond the arc. It's not surprising that Harden took more shots as an alpha dog, but he maintained a stellar efficiency while shouldering the load against quality opponents. That's what makes him a star.


Add all these little fragments up and we see that Harden has a history of thriving as the No. 1 option even against star-studded lineups and those featuring defensive stalwarts like Avery Bradley. That's why it's essential that we consider the context before jumping to conclusions that Harden isn't a star-caliber player because of his lukewarm per-game numbers.


He might not maintain his current torrid scoring pace, but there's a good chance he'll be in the conversation for the scoring le. When the Rockets handed a reserve player an $80 million contract, many thought Harden was nothing more than fool's gold. But more and more, it's looking like the Rockets found a true gem.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...en-no-1-option

[noob cake]

HardGOAT

2nd seed here we come

[DAF86]

ESPN Insider article about Harden from today I found interesting:


Is Harden really a No. 1 option?
Beyond his hot start in Houston, Harden excels against elite compe ion





Should we have seen this coming?


After coming off the bench for the Oklahoma City Thunder and having to share the ball with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, James Harden is flourishing in his role as the Houston Rockets' No. 1 option. He is averaging a staggering 35.3 points per game on 52.9 percent shooting while dishing out 6.3 assists and grabbing 6.3 boards. His player efficiency rating (PER) was 26.0.

Three games in and everyone wants to know: Is "Beardsanity" a fluke or is it for real?

My answer: Harden has done this before, so we shouldn't be surprised by his dominance. Plus, we've been blinded by our undying reverence for per-game averages and the star talents of Durant and Westbrook.

Harden's average of 16.8 points per game last season doesn't scream "bona fide NBA star," but it also tells us next to nothing about his ability to be a No. 1 option.


Why? First, his scoring average was artificially deflated due to playing time; Harden played only 31.4 minutes per game thanks to Oklahoma City's strategy of bringing him off the bench, which is abnormal for a player of his caliber. For example, Harden's Team USA teammates averaged 36.4 minutes per game last season. Harden is averaging 41.7 minutes per game in his first three contests this season, and we're seeing what he can do when he's treated like a star in the minutes column -- even if his playing time is unsustainably high.

Second, this season, Harden doesn't have to share the ball with two other ball-dominant players. There's no doubt that playing next to Durant and Westbrook can have its legitimate advantages (goodbye, double-teams!), but the hard truth is that sharing the court with those two stars absolutely slaughtered Harden's numbers.

Harden's hidden stats
We hear it all the time: Context is everything. When it comes to the fascinating case of Harden, this axiom nails it on the head. Let's start with a baseline. Harden scored 19.3 points per 36 minutes last season. Not bad. Using NBA.com's advanced stats page, we can see how Harden's numbers change depending on whether Durant or Westbrook was on the court, but not both. That takes some digging inside the incredible StatsCube Excel database.

So how did Harden do when he played with both Durant and Westbrook on the court?

A measly 13.3 points per 36 minutes.


Yes, that's it. You know who scored 13.3 points per 36 minutes last season? Brandon Rush. Further, Harden played next to Westbrook and Durant for the bulk of his playing time -- 60 percent of his overall minutes. And contrary to popular belief, playing the third wheel didn't help his percentages. Harden shot just 46 percent from the floor when the Olympian trio took the court, down from his overall 49 percent.

Let's go deeper inside the numbers.

What about when Harden was the second fiddle? Here, we're talking about two scenarios: First, playing next to Durant without Westbrook; and second, playing next to Westbrook without Durant. If you watched the Thunder last season, you know that the former happened a lot, but the latter didn't. Thunder coach Scott Brooks rarely paired Harden and Westbrook together without Durant there to stabilize the attack.

Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images
Even with Durant and Westbrook on the Thunder, Harden flashed alpha-dog potential.
So, what was Harden's scoring rate per 36 minutes with just Durant? 22.8 points on 49 percent shooting in 250 minutes. And with just Westbrook? 22.3 points on 55 percent shooting in just 63 minutes, an admittedly very small sample size. The subtraction of one ball-dominant star from the equation added nearly 10 points to Harden's scoring rate. This makes sense, but it's helpful to actually put numbers behind the "sharing the ball" concept.

And now, here comes the juicy part: Examining Harden as the alpha dog, when he was released from the shackles of Durant's and Westbrook's ball-dominance.

What was Harden's scoring rate when he was the clear No. 1 option last season?

Try 32.6 points per 36 minutes.


You read that correctly; when defenses keyed in on Harden as the No. 1 option, Harden responded by scoring like Michael Jordan, and he shot 53 percent from the floor in these situations. Plus, it gets better: Harden dished out 6.2 assists per 36 minutes, up from his normal rate of 4.3 assists. And remember, he was racking up all those assists by feeding the likes of Royal Ivey, Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed.


To recap: Harden as third wheel -- 13.3 points per 36 minutes; Harden as second fiddle -- about 22.5 points per 36 minutes; and Harden as No. 1 option -- 32.6 points per 36 minutes.

Really an alpha dog?
James Harden per 36 minutes by teammate


Teammate MIN PTS REB AST FG% 3FG% FT% 3PA fga fta
Both 1163 13.3 4.5 3.6 46 39 83 4.6 8.8 4.1
Alone 460 32.6 4.7 6.2 53 39 83 7.1 18.2 13.1
Durant only 250 22.8 5.5 3.6 49 40 96 6.2 13.2 7.6
Westbrook only 63 22.3 4.6 5.1 55 50 81 4.6 11.4 9.1
TOTAL 1936 19.4 4.7 4.3 49 39 85 5.4 11.7 6.9
Alpha dog dominance against all compe ion
So maybe we shouldn't be surprised to see alpha dog Harden taking over the league. He has already excelled in that role before, but you couldn't see it from the treetops.


Now, I know what you're thinking: Of course he dominated against second units. This seems like a reasonable rebuttal. After all, Harden faced some iffy lineups when he anchored Oklahoma City's second unit. Anyone will look like a superstar when he is going against a team of benchwarmers, right?


Well, what if I told you that he dominated against starter-caliber lineups, too?


This is the most fascinating finding when we put Harden's production under the microscope. Using ESPN.com's 2012 #NBArank feature as a barometer for player quality, every unit that Harden played against was given an average rating based on each player's #NBArank score. (For those who aren't familiar, #NBArank asked more than 100 of our contributors to rank each player on a scale of 1 to 10; LeBron James checked out at 9.9 while Eddy Curry was given a 1.2 score on the bottom end.)


With this tool, we can see how Harden did according to the strength of his opponent. To qualify as a "good" lineup, the unit had to average a 5.0 rating or higher. As expected, the majority of lineups that Harden faced as the alpha dog did not measure up. Of the 460 minutes that Harden starred as the alpha dog, only 106 were against above-average lineups.


Let's peel off another layer and look at Harden's production as a No. 1 option against good lineups.


Somehow, Harden did even better against tougher compe ion: He scored 35.0 points every 36 minutes and shot 50.8 percent from the floor, including an eye-popping 48 percent from beyond the arc. It's not surprising that Harden took more shots as an alpha dog, but he maintained a stellar efficiency while shouldering the load against quality opponents. That's what makes him a star.


Add all these little fragments up and we see that Harden has a history of thriving as the No. 1 option even against star-studded lineups and those featuring defensive stalwarts like Avery Bradley. That's why it's essential that we consider the context before jumping to conclusions that Harden isn't a star-caliber player because of his lukewarm per-game numbers.


He might not maintain his current torrid scoring pace, but there's a good chance he'll be in the conversation for the scoring le. When the Rockets handed a reserve player an $80 million contract, many thought Harden was nothing more than fool's gold. But more and more, it's looking like the Rockets found a true gem.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...en-no-1-option

I'm not going to say that I knew for sure any of this facts but I expected them. I have seen it with Manu all these years, that's why I don't understand all the hate that my fellow spursfans where throwing at Manu 0.2. Although I have always thought that Manu was also underrated by a big part of the Spurs fanbase, tbh.

[Mel_13]

I'm not going to say that I knew for sure any of this facts but I expected them. I have seen it with Manu all these years, that's why I don't understand all the hate that my fellow spursfans where throwing at Manu 0.2. Although I have always thought that Manu was also underrated by a big part of the Spurs fanbase, tbh.

Fans are always about 'what have you done for me lately', so their reactions never surprise me. I am surprised at Presti. This trade means that he either didn't recognize Harden's true value (unlikely, IMO) or that he couldn't convince ownership to choose one of the several options that didn't involve trading Harden. Either way, a failure on his part.

[AaronY]

Harden disappointed OKC didn't giive him more time to consider deal:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--ja...-06561809.html

[Jodelo]

Harden disappointed OKC didn't giive him more time to consider deal:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--ja...-06561809.html

You are slow!

[Pelicans78]

Harden is the real deal, but will get run into the ground quick by the dumbass known as Kevin McHale who doesn't play ANY of the rookies in a rebuilding year.

Why the isn't Terrence Jones playing?

[Kai]

Why the isn't Terrence Jones playing?

With Rockets young big men playing well, other young big men wait, watch

Other than that, his collection of young big men – Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas and Royce White – has been waiting for their first NBA minutes. Jones broke ahead of the pack in the preseason, but that was with Morris out. With Morris playing well – he is the Rockets’ third-leading scorer and making a healthy 46.9 percent of his shots even with his jittery and misfiring start in Detroit – there is little time left, especially with Cole Aldrich stepping in at center the past two games.

“They want to play more and I wish I could play them a little bit more, but I think our average (experience) for our team is under two years so everybody we play is young,” McHale said. “It’s not like all of a sudden we’re saying, “Gee, we’re not playing our young guys to play vets.’ We’re not playing our young guys to play other young guys. It’s just a matter of which young guy you want to play. But we have to try to work them into our rotation as we go.”

Jones in particularly could figure in the rotation, though the Nuggets and Grizzlies – the Rockets’ next two opponents – can go with 7-footers off the bench, making McHale more likely to go with Aldrich. Even with Smith out, the Rockets are playing a nine-man rotation. Aldrich has played in 46 NBA games, Morris in 20 games. Both had previously played almost exclusively in mop-up duty. Smith has played in nine NBA games.

[djohn2oo8]

McHale. Jones should be starting.

[djohn2oo8]

Everytime McHale puts Tony Douglas in the game i think about goin on some sort of spree.

[pass1st]

So.....is Harden going to get back into MJ form after the half?

[DAF86]

So.....is Harden going to get back into MJ form after the half?

Nah, I say he remains in Kobe form (minus the chucking) for this game.

[Latarian Milton]

say when the beard nig fails to play da MJ mode and the team loses, their yellow fans would think he cost them the game and would pile up tons of trash upon his hairy ass until he cries and dies. whereas the yellow TO generator will never get a pinch of criticism. the chinatown rockets are just not the right team for s to play on imho

[pass1st]

say when the beard nig fails to play da MJ mode and the team loses, their yellow fans would think he cost them the game and would pile up tons of trash upon his hairy ass until he cries and dies. whereas the yellow TO generator will never get a pinch of criticism. the chinatown rockets are just not the right team for s to play on imho

It's true, tbh. Lin can have 25 turnovers and Harden would get blammed for a loss if he scored 50pts on 75%

[Spurs da champs]

15 shots to get 15 points against a real defender, seems like Harden can't do .

[pass1st]

I wonder what's the situation over at clutchfans

[noob cake]

2nd Seed.

No problems.