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thinking that's as far as Silver's analysis goes
Did you do stuff like central limit theorem, mass functions and density functions in high school too?
If Nate Silver quits doing the fivethirtyeight blog and goes to do something else, there would be hedge funds lining up at his apartment to give him a 7 figure job. That "any undergrad" quote is one of the most ignorant things I've seen on the internet this election season.
Did you do stuff like central limit theorem, mass functions and density functions in high school too?
You guys can continue to idolize him if you want. His work in baseball is probably a lot more interesting than this simple poll-averaging election winning odds.
It's butt simple
You can do it yourself here. http://www.270towin.com/simulation/
I ran a bunch of these and started realizing "Oh ".
If you want to see the results from 10,000 trials, go here:
http://www.270towin.com/simulation/visualizer_2012.php
Undoubtedly. He's a smart dude. I just don't think his election "model" is all that interesting. If you do, so be it.
I never said it was "interesting" tbh. I'm not taking an advanced stats class because I find it interesting, I'm taking it because I'm gonna be competing with Asians who crunch numbers with the best of 'em for jobs in I-banking and hedge funds. All I'm saying is it's by no means something "any undergrad" could do.
I never said it was "interesting" tbh. I'm not taking an advanced stats class because I find it interesting
Perhaps it would be somewhat challenging for an undergrad to implement it, but the concept would be easily understood.
Good luck competing against that stereotype, btw.
DarrinS going full WC and doubling down.
Some concepts he uses (central limit theorem, distribution functions, etc.) are not concepts that by any stretch of the imagination any undergrad could easily understand.
And I've got the Judaism stereotype going for me tbh.
Darrin is going to spend the next four years hating on Silver for owning him without trying.
Darrin clearly unfamiliar with the math skills of undergrads, tbh
Well, I did take the math requirements for engineering and not business or liberal arts majors, so maybe I'm not a fair judge.
Undergrads don't understand distributions? If they don't, that's pretty sad.
Darrin is the Energizer bunny of butthurt.
Polling is a difficult enterprise nowadays. Some estimate that only about 10 percent of voters respond even to the best surveys, and the polls that take shortcuts pay for it with lower-still response rates, perhaps no better than 2 to 5 percent. The pollsters are making a leap of faith that the 10 percent of voters they can get on the phone and get to agree to participate are representative of the entire population.
Your contribution to this conversation is appreciated.
Your extended meltdown is appreciated.
Darrin claims undergrads should have better statistical skills. Darrin then proceeds to display his lack of statistical knowledge.
You can't make this up.
Faith!!!! Pollsters are magic! Undergrads should understands stats and duplicate Nate Silver on a whim!
Faith!!!! Pollsters are magic! Undergrads should understands stats and duplicate Nate Silver on a whim!
How silly of me. I forgot to quote my source.
Well you finally found something where Nate Silver was wrong! Its not a leap of faith by any means. Would you like to explain to me how having decades of statistical backing cons utes a leap of faith?
You see, you would post something negative about anything I say, without actually reading what I'm saying.
I suppose you have a different view of that quote, now that you know it is Nate Silver's own words.
Pffft. Whatever.
I knew that was Silver.
What point do you think you made there, Darrin?
We all believe you.
Actually, you really just forgot to include context. Like for instance, this nugget further on down in that blog post.
My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.
Just as we all believe you could do what Silver does.
Again, what point did you think you made there?
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