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Great analysis thanks!
Having seen the spurs so far this season uncharacteristically struggle from three point territory, i was interested in looking into the problem.
Currently, the spurs as a whole are shooting 36% on threes this season, this puts us below the current NBA average of 37%, not a very familiar place. In comparison, the spurs in 2011-2012 shot 40%. This made me wonder who the main culprits were, i had some spare time on my hands so i did a little research and thought you guys might find it interesting.
Above the break 3's (3pm ≥ 1)
Player 12/13 11/12 Diff Tim Duncan (1/2) 50% (0/2) 0% +50 James Anderson (1/2) 50% (7/34) 21% +29 Matt Bonner (12/18) 67% (79/195) 41% +26 Boris Diaw (6/12) 50% (30/96) 31% +19 Tony Parker (2/7) 29% (6/37) 16% +13 Danny Green (20/45) 44% (59/139) 42% +2 Stephen Jackson (7/29) 24% (40/136) 29% -5 Manu Ginobili (18/57) 32% (42/102) 41% -9 Gary Neal (14/44) 32% (70/165) 42% -10 Patty Mills (4/15) 27% (14/36) 39% -12 Nando De Colo (4/9) 44% N/A N/A
12/13
11/12
Diff
Team (89/249) 36% (264/703) 38% -2 League Average 37% 34% +3
Corner 3's (3pm ≥ 1)
Player 12/13 11/12 Diff Tim Duncan (1/1) 100% (0/2) 0% +100 Cory Joseph (1/1) 100% (0/5) 0% +100 Stephen Jackson (3/6) 50% (9/32) 28% +22 Boris Diaw (3/6) 50% (1/3) 33% +17 James Anderson (1/2) 50% (12/33) 36% +14 Gary Neal (4/9) 44% (13/33) 39% +5 Tony Parker (4/11) 36% (8/24) 33% +3 Kawhi Leonard (9/20) 45% (23/49) 47% -2 Patty Mills (7/16) 44% (10/20) 50% -6 Manu Ginobili (4/12) 33% (10/23) 44% -11 Matt Bonner (3/9) 33% (26/55) 47% -14 Danny Green (12/42) 29% (43/93) 46% -17 Nando De Colo (1/6) 17% N/A N/A
(all stats are from NBA.com)
12/13
11/12
Diff
Team (53/141) 37% (145/344) 42% -5 League Average 39% 38% +1
Things to note
It's still very early in the season, and being a small sample size these stats should be taken with a grain of salt. but it is still interesting to see what's going on at the moment
So far it is the corner three where we are having problems. Danny Green 12 of 42...yikes
Manu, Neal, Kawhi, Green, Jackson and Mills are all shooting below their career averages from the land of three.
For those interested, Kawhi hasn't made a three from above the break yet (0/6). last year he was (18/60)
Timmy should shoot more threes
I am expecting the law of averages to kick in soon, and i expect some hot shooting nights in the near future
Last edited by squiz; 12-04-2012 at 09:56 AM.
Great analysis thanks!
The focus on defense is there ... defending is exhausting, so this might be a reason why the 3Pt % is not as good as the last seasons ... as long as we are winning games and don't die by the three, I am happy (although it was tough watching the first half against the Grizzlies because we are not used to the Spurs bricking so many open threes)
Cheers!
can't argue with that, as long as we are winning it's not much to worry about.
Very good analysis!
I'd say it's more of a fluke than anything and fully expect the corner 3 to start falling at some point. Looking at the numbers - there are 3 players that need to improve their shot to match or come close to last season's team average - Green's corner 3 and Manu's and Neal's above the break 3s. So far Manu and Neal both have been shooting a lot of these, forcing the shot quite often. Perhaps Pop has instructed them to shoot themselves out of their slupms. I definitely expect these to improve.
Something else that should be taken into account is that during the second half of last season, after joining the Spurs, Jack and Mills shot lights out and they're unlikely to reach these heights again, so overall I expect the Spurs to improve their 3 FG% but not to reach last season's.
yep i agree, those three alone were responsible for ~60% of made threes last season. i guess it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see if they are struggling the team will struggle haha
Nothing surprising here. Neal and Manu are not shooting the three well yet. And they are two of the top three in number of attempts.
IMO Neal is hurting because he is doing backup PG duty, I think Pop should elevate Mills to that role. And it's well do ented that Manu is not in mid season form yet, he'll get there.
I agree Neal is not the backup PG and should not get mins there. Mills while not great there and not a PG neither is a better option as sad as that is. I wish we had a real backup PG.
nice writeup. thanks for taking the time to research it.
Nice writeup.
I'm not sold on Spurs ending as a significantly better 3 point shooting team this year than their current level. Some players are in a slump and will shoot the ball better but some players will cool down to offset that.
Last year shooting numbers doesn't seem to be a rational target. Jefferson and Bonner were two big reasons why Spurs ended as the best 3 point shooting team in the regular season. One is gone and the other is at the end of the bench. It's globally a good move for the team because basketball is much more than hitting 3 pointers in the regular season but it will surely affect negatively Spurs regular season 3 points percentage.
I agree. I think as the season goes along, both Neal and Manu's 3pt%'s will go up, and with that, the team's % will go up too. Good news is that the rest of the team seems to be pretty solid from 3, so we just need those two to get back in order and we should be pretty good from 3.
ur stats dont tell if whether some of them 3s come from end of shotclock bailout shots
Where are you getting your numbers? Tim has hit 2 threes this year and Tony has hit at least 4 and probably more off the top of my head.
Above the break 3's (3pm ≥ 1)
Corner 3's (3pm ≥ 1)
There's two different breakdowns in case you didn't realize.
My bad, my reading comprehension is pretty bad.
Matt Bonner shooting under 7% of the team 3s vs. near 20% last season has probably something to do with it.
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