NFL ATS Picks, Week 14

[Ghazi]

Went 5-2 last week. Giants was my worst pick of the week... I figured they would move the ball but underrated their lousy rush defense and the neutralization of their pass rush against RG III.

Early leans:

Denver -10 - laying 10 points in a road game is usually a bad idea... but I can't see any reason not to pick Denver here. Denver along with Houston/San Fran are the 3 most "complete" teams IMO... Denver has a pass rush and an elite QB... Oakland has NO pass rush whatsoever and is horrible against the pass... spells disaster against Manning. Their offense is alright, but I don't think they can keep this game close.

Minnesota +3- This is a revenge spot for the Vikes, as they lost to the Bears 2 weeks ago. the Bears offensive line is still horrible, but relying on Ponder against that defense is risky. The stats on Chicago's run D v Minnesota's run O are interesting. Minny is really weak at power running while Chicago is really good at containing power run... while Minny is really strong at open field/5+ runs (obviously w/ AD) while Chicago is weak defensively. Obviously Chicago's scheme plays a factor in that. I think the value lies in taking the points here.

Miami +10- Miami's running defense is pretty strong, which could be a problem as SF is highly reliant on the run. Miami has allowed less than 2 offensive TD's in 9/12 games this year and has lost 2 OT games, and 3 games by 3 points. It's a compe ive football team. Lots of value in taking 10 points here, even against a complete team like San Fran.

Redskins -1- Baltimore is an average football team in nearly all phases despite their 9-3 record. Their running defense is mediocre. After watching Washington on Monday I think their offense is a nightmare to defend. Washington fields an average defense, not a bad defense... their offense is among the best in the league. I like Washington a lot here.

Cincy -3 - This stood out to me immediately, I might make an early bet on this... Watching Bengals v the Chargers I noticed... this team is pretty physical... running the ball and their linemen on D have motors... one of the best pass rushes in the league... dynamic receivers, physical run game. This is actually a pretty good football team. The Cowboys... decent pass rush, but pretty average in all other phases.

Texans +4 ... I hate the idea of fading Brady, but Houston to me is a complete team with no weaknesses... the QB is there, the run game is there, they have an elite WR... they have a pass rush... New England on the other hand is still weak defensively, Gronk is out...against the 3 best defensive teams they've played this year (AZ/SEA/MIA), they've been held under 24 points... but yes their offense is explosive and the Texans LBs have been ravaged by injuries... still think a lot of value lies in taking the points in what expects to be a really good/close game.

[Avante]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/feature...s/expert/picks

I goof around here because it's funny watching the kids. In reality I use Jason as my $$$$ maker. Been with him a few seasons now, he is a winner.

Friday mornings at 8:30 Pacific Colin Cowherd on...The Herd...picks 5 games, the guy is smoking. I use his picks also. He's something like 45-20.

I look at a number of historical trends/stats, pick the games I like then see what Jason and Colin have to say. Haven't had a losing week all season. 110 to win a 100, I look for three games where I liked it, Jason liked it as did Colin.

I also look at what Wickersham/Mortensen think. Ideal scenario is everyone agrees on a favorite winning the game. I don't worry about the number.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks


I also use this site.
http://www.thespread.com/nfl

[ChumpDumper]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/feature...s/expert/picks

I goof around here because it's funny watching the kids. In reality I use Jason as my $$$$ maker. Been with him a few seasons now, he is a winner.

Friday mornings at 8:30 Pacific Colin Cowherd on...The Herd...picks 5 games, the guy is smoking. I use his picks also. He's something like 45-20

Cool.

What's your record this season?

[Avante]

Cool.

What's your record this season?

I actually don't talk about the real stuff on the internet. It's really not cool.

[GoodOdor]

I actually don't talk about the real stuff on the internet. It's really not cool.

So you pretend to suck at betting on purpose?

Okay.

[ChumpDumper]

I actually don't talk about the real stuff on the internet. It's really not cool.

So you've been posting fake picks all season?

That's cool?

[Avante]

So you pretend to suck at betting on purpose?

Okay.

I'm playing my sons picks. It's a kick watching how everybody acts over it.

[ChumpDumper]

I'm playing my sons picks. It's a kick watching how everybody acts over it.

So what's the record of his picks you are playing?

[Avante]

So you've been posting fake picks all season?

That's cool?

Not fake just not my own, my son thinks he can pick, hahaha!!!!!! Just having some fuin with it. I go with that guy Jason, Cowherd and that other site. I do pick my plays,looking for agreement.

[ChumpDumper]

So it's cool to throw your own son under the bus on an internet message board whose members' opinions you claim matter not to you, but it's not cool to post the results of your own picks this season when you have posted what you claim to have been the overall results of your picks since you started betting.

[Avante]

So what's the record of his picks you are playing?

I really don't know, don't even keep up with it, well aware that others will let me know but don't really pay any attention. You don't talk about real $$$$$ on a web site, rude.

[Blake]

Updated: 38-37-1

You guarantee 70%.

You guaranteed you would be hahahahahaing in the end.

This isn't 70%.

Hahahahahahaha

[ChumpDumper]

I really don't know, don't even keep up with it, well aware that others will let me know but don't really pay any attention. You don't talk about real $$$$$ on a web site, rude.

But you talk about making real money on football all the time and you recently said your picks on this site are close to even.

[Avante]

So it's cool to throw your own son under the bus on an internet message board whose members' opinions you claim matter not to you, but it's not cool to post the results of your own picks this season when you have posted what you claim to have been the overall results of your picks since you started betting.

It was his idea, he gets a kick out of the reaction, no big deal. This week his best friend is going to pick.

Once I saw the climate here and all these young kids without a clue I decided to have some fun and it has been, and will be.

[Avante]

But you talk about making real money on football all the time and you recently said your picks on this site are close to even.

Masons picks are about even (so I as told) but he doesn't play real money. I do with my plays.

I've been doing this for about 10 years seriously.

[ChumpDumper]

It was his idea, he gets a kick out of the reaction, no big deal. This week his best friend is going to pick.

Once I saw the climate here and all these young kids without a clue I decided to have some fun and it has been, and will be.

There was no reason whatsoever to reveal this information to the people on this message board about whose opinions you claim not to care.

[Blake]

It was his idea, he gets a kick out of the reaction, no big deal. This week his best friend is going to pick.

Once I saw the climate here and all these young kids without a clue I decided to have some fun and it has been, and will be.

you thought you would show off if you hit 70% or pretend like it was all a joke if you didn't.

Hahahahahahaha.

[ChumpDumper]

Masons picks are about even but he doesn't play real money. I do with my plays.

So where have you posted your plays?

[ChumpDumper]

Wouldn't you like to know! Rude!

[gaKNOW!blee]

Wow this is the lamest cop out I've ever ing seen.

Let me guess...that infamous easy money of lions -7 vs the rams was your son too?

Be a man...admit you suck at picking NFL games.

[johnsmith]

It was his idea, he gets a kick out of the reaction, no big deal. This week his best friend is going to pick.

Once I saw the climate here and all these young kids without a clue I decided to have some fun and it has been, and will be.

You and your unemployed got son have ruined what used to be a good nfl forum....good job fat ass!

[Avante]

There was no reason whatsoever to reveal this information to the people on this message board about whose opinions you claim not to care.

All I do is play what Jason and Colin play. Once in a great while I might go with something I really like also. I tried to pick on my own, I was hitting about 55-60%. Those guys are far better than myself.

[ChumpDumper]

I'll have you all know that I'm 100% this year with my secret, definitely-not-someone-else's picks I make somewhere else that I really made for reals.

[ChumpDumper]

All I do is play what Jason and Colin play. Once in a great while I might go with something I really like also. I tried to pick on my own, I was hitting about 55-60%. Those guys are far better than myself.

So when you made your own picks you were hitting at around the clip that the picks you posted and claimed you weren't yours this season.

Yeah....

[johnsmith]

Liar, chubby, constantly on the Internet.....wow you're a ing loser.