NFL ATS Picks, Week 15

[Ghazi]

Early picks without much research

Bengals -3 v Eagles... Bengals coming off a loss, but I felt they were a bit unlucky and had numerous correctable execution errors. still a physical run game, amazing pass rush, and dynamic receivers. I expect Dalton to have a big game... and while Foles played well last week, it was against one of the weakest pass rushes in the league. Rookie QB behind a shaky OLine, I like the Bengals a lot here.

Giants +2 @ Falcons... I'm not even sure why the Giants are underdogs. I don't think the Falcons can expose the Giants' pass defense, but the Giants sure as can expose the Falcons' run defense. I saw the Falcons incapable of creating clean pockets against the Saints, so I imagine the Giants will be able to get pressure. I bet against the Falcons last week successfully, in part because I think their 11-2 record is highly inflated and they're just a slightly above average team in every category. I anticipate Manning will have time to shred this so-so defense.

Saints -3.5 v Bucs... I faded the Bucs two weeks ago against the Broncos. Simple reasoning (amongst other factors): non existent pass rush v an elite QB... again, we're faced with that weak pass rush that made even a rookie look good against Drew Brees. I hate the Saints defense, it's terrible... but I think I might be comfortable swallowing 4 points here.

Broncos -2.5 @ Ravens... simply because I love the Broncos. Top 5 offense... top 5 defense... great offensive line, stars on the defensive end and a solid pass rush. Meanwhile, I think the Ravens are just... an average team. I've went 1-0-1 betting against them the past few weeks. I'm not sure why the Broncos are laying less than FG here.. I think I'll swallow it.

Texans -7 v Colts ... yeah the Texans looked awful last night, but the Colts are a major stepdown in class for the Texans. A team that has no pass rush and a bad defense, I think Schaub and his weapons will look much better... inflated record for the Colts as well... I think I'll lay a touchdwon.

Niners +5.5 @ Patriots ... maybe I'm making the same mistake again, but the Niners are a really impressive team to me. Best defense in the NFL, best rushing attack in the NFL.. efficient QB play. However, efficient QB play might not be enough here, can they expose the Patriots pass defense? I think I'm comfortable taking 5.5 points though. This is

[Avante]

It's too early for me, haven't sat down to disect, yet.

But....

The Pats coming off a big home game, at home again, strong "spot". The Niners on the road in the month of December are weak....15-30. While the Pats at home in December....25-16.

This will also be a Sunday Night game, we just saw how the Pats play at home in these big night games.

The Niners are 0-3 vs the spread last three in this "spot". Now keep in mind the Niners have a big game with division rival Seattle the following week a game far more important than vs NE. The Pats vs a weak Jags team up next for them.

The Pats are a far better home team late in the season than the Niners are a road team late in the season. Pats especially strong in these back to back home game "spots".

Remember the Niners couldn't beat St. Louis/Minnesota on the road. Yes I realze we are talking about the number but I can't see anything logical that has the Niners staying within a td.

[AussieFanKurt]

continually says he's gone then continues to post

[Avante]

continually says he's gone then continues to post

I'll say it once again....

When dealing with the punk kids here I mess with then, couldn't care less where that goes. No more than they care what they do.

[Blake]

I'll say it once again....

When dealing with the punk kids here I mess with then, couldn't care less where that goes. No more than they care what they do.

Lol Avante
Lol 70%
Lol mason
Lol under bus
Lol starving
Lol pinked
Lol 49ers
Lol Alex Smith
Lol great depression sprinters
Lol fat
Lol ol
Lol
Lol 280lbs
Lol has one friend
Lol that one friend tickles prisoner anus for a living
Lol NFL monkey IQ > Avante
Lol Avante
Lol 70%
Lol mason
Lol under bus
Lol starving
Lol pinked
Lol 49ers
Lol Alex Smith
Lol great depression sprinters
Lol fat
Lol ol
Lol
Lol 280lbs
Lol has one friend
Lol that one friend tickles prisoner anus for a living
Lol NFL monkey IQ > Avante
Lol Avante
Lol 70%
Lol mason
Lol under bus
Lol starving
Lol pinked
Lol 49ers
Lol Alex Smith
Lol great depression sprinters
Lol fat
Lol ol
Lol
Lol 280lbs
Lol has one friend
Lol that one friend tickles prisoner anus for a living
Lol NFL monkey IQ > Avante
Lol Avante
Lol 70%
Lol mason
Lol under bus
Lol starving
Lol pinked
Lol 49ers
Lol Alex Smith
Lol great depression sprinters
Lol fat
Lol ol
Lol
Lol 280lbs
Lol has one friend
Lol that one friend tickles prisoner anus for a living
Lol NFL monkey IQ > Avante
Lol Avante
Lol 70%
Lol mason
Lol under bus
Lol starving
Lol pinked
Lol 49ers
Lol Alex Smith
Lol great depression sprinters
Lol fat
Lol ol
Lol
Lol 280lbs
Lol has one friend
Lol that one friend tickles prisoner anus for a living
Lol NFL monkey IQ > Avante
Lol Avante
Lol 70%
Lol mason
Lol under bus
Lol starving
Lol pinked
Lol 49ers
Lol Alex Smith
Lol great depression sprinters
Lol fat
Lol ol
Lol
Lol 280lbs
Lol has one friend
Lol that one friend tickles prisoner anus for a living
Lol NFL monkey IQ > Avante

[Ghazi]

locked in: Bengals -4

would've loved this number more at 3... but I really like the way this Bengals team is constructed. Foles had a nice week v the BUcs, but this pass rush is quite a bit better. AJ Green expects to have a big game too...big fan of this Bengals team... only thing is they've had an easy schedule, but regardless I think they're better than Philly by a decent margin.

[Ghazi]

Bengals -4 win

already locked in Broncos -3 and Steelers -1.5, leaning Giants +1.5, Niners +5, and Panthers +3

minor leans on Saints -4 and Texans -9.5 ... that line has shot the up.

[Avante]

I'll play...

Caro + 3.5
Pitt - 1.5
GB - 3

I also lke...

Hous - 8
TB + 3.5
Sea - 5.5
Det - 6.5

http://www.thelvh.com/supercontestweeklycard

[Ghazi]

Houston has bloated up to -10 on my site.

Ive layed 10 only once this year, and it worked w/ the Broncos... but I think while the Colts are overrated, and are very capable of getting blown out... this is a lot of points to lay and risks lame backdoors even if you are covering late game.

locked in update: Niners +4.5, Steelers -1.5, Broncos -3, Giants +1.5

leaning on Panthers +3 , probably going to lock in Jets +2

[Avante]

Houston has bloated up to -10 on my site.

Ive layed 10 only once this year, and it worked w/ the Broncos... but I think while the Colts are overrated, and are very capable of getting blown out... this is a lot of points to lay and risks lame backdoors even if you are covering late game.

locked in update: Niners +4.5, Steelers -1.5, Broncos -3, Giants +1.5

leaning on Panthers +3 , probably going to lock in Jets +2

Houston was embarrashed, now they are home vs a team that gives up more than they score...292 to 329, while the Texans are 365 over 263. So we have a good team coming off a loss now at home vs a team that scores less and gives up more. Gotta love Houston laying the number in this "spot".

I also like the Jets, should have had them listed. They are in the playoff hunt the ans are not.

[johnsmith]

Houston was embarrashed, now they are home vs a team that gives up more than they score...292 to 329, while the Texans are 365 over 263. So we have a good team coming off a loss now at home vs a team that scores less and gives up more. Gotta love Houston laying the number in this "spot".

I also like the Jets, should have had them listed. They are in the playoff hunt the ans are not.

No one gives a mason.....and tell your father he's fat.

[Ghazi]

the final card

Giants +1.5 - This line is so "obvious" to me that it's scary, but call me a sucker. The Falcons cannot defend the ball, 'nor run the ball which will hide the Giants weakness (run defense)... their pass/run ratio is highly imbalanced, so I feel like the Giants will be able to unleash their pass rush. I saw the Falcons play the Saints, and saw in inability to create clean pockets for Ryan and the interior constantly getting blown up. Not sold on the O-Line. I'm getting the better QB here as well against a shaky Falcons stop unit.

Broncos -3 - Some might say the Broncos have an inflated record and haven't played anyone. This is true to some extent, but Baltimore is no better. Haven't seen Baltimore play much lately, but saw Denver... Manning's command of the offense is incredible and they have one of the best pass rushes and run defenses in the league. One of the best defenses in the league, for thaht matter. Baltimore grades as an average team across the board. Think about their last 4 games... 0 offensive TDs against the Steelers, 4th and 29 conversion to beat the Chargers, a loss to Charlie Batch, and a close OT loss to the Redskins... point differential? 0... they're just average so I'll swallow 3 on the road despite the Ravens (like the Falcons) being very good at home.

Steelers -1.5 - The Cowboys have not impressed me the last 2 weeks... their defense showed all sorts of leaks against the Eagles and they were lucky to beat the Bengals. Romo was pressured on 50% of dropbacks, their offense had fits all day and they benefited from a lot of Bengal drops. they are the worst rushing team in the league and are imbalanced as far as run/pass ratio (heavy pass team), so I like that against a still strong Steelers defense.... and again, I'm getting the better QB, better coach, better defense, better running game. Steelers O-Line has some issues sure, but I'll swallow 2 points against an average Cowboys team.

Panthers +3 - The Chargers are an abortion. Rivers has regressed greatly, their offensive line is terrible, Norv is gone. Their offense has become stagnant. No longer is this a talented underachieving team, it's just a BAD football team. Panthers are better than their record, with a bunch of unlucky close losses. Cam is playing well lately and they have a pretty solid pass rush. I'm getting the better QB, better rushing attack, better defense, and 3 points here...

Niners +4.5 - This is a big offensive line for the Niners, and the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL. Maybe they'll be able to move Wilfork's fat ass. A Texans flaw was exposed on Monday: block JJ Watt and they have no other pass rushers... but I feel lie the Niners might be able to get consistent pressure WITHOUT blitzing (can't blitz Brady)... it seems maniacal to back a rookie QB in a night game at Foxboro, but I like the defense/running game of the Niners a lot. I don't think Kaepernick has to be BRadylike to win this game, he just has to make a few plays with his arm and feet. and I think he will. But it's key for the Niners that they stay ahead of the chains and don't fall behind, they must keep the game close throughout so they can maintain their rushing attack. I think even if the Niners lose, they can cover the margin

Jets +2 - Not much informed here, I just like betting Monday night games.. so I'll take the better defense here. The Jets offense has been anemic, but might find some spots against a horrendous ans defense. Jets have had arguably the hardest schedule in the league this year, with losses to the Patriots twice, Seahawks, Steelers, Niners, etc... could it be thi team isn't as bad as their record but had a ridiculous schedule? Seems like they're winning the games they're supposed to win, and losing to the upper echelon teams. Well, the ans aren't that, I think I'm getting the better team and 2 points here.

[Malik Hairston]

21-11-1 on the season, haven't posted a bet since DD's week 7 thread IIRC, I've only been playing long shot low-risk parlays..this is a tough week to get back in the mix..

Baltimore +3 $75
Baltimore ML 2.35 $50
Texans -9.5 $150
Steelers -1.5 $50
Chargers -3 $50
Saints -4 $50
Bears ML 2.10 $50

[Blake]

I'll play...

Caro + 3.5
Pitt - 1.5
GB - 3

I also lke...

Hous - 8
TB + 3.5
Sea - 5.5
Det - 6.5

http://www.thelvh.com/supercontestweeklycard

4-3?

plenty of season left

[GoodOdor]

The 3 losses were Mason's picks though.

[Ghazi]

3-2 for me today. 4-2 on the week.

Jets +2 pending tomorrow

I feel like I got a bit unlucky with the Steelers loss. the Giants loss was just me overrating the Giants and them playing and executing like total

[Blake]

3-2 for me today. 4-2 on the week.

Jets +2 pending tomorrow

I feel like I got a bit unlucky with the Steelers loss. the Giants loss was just me overrating the Giants and them playing and executing like total

Did Mason pick for you too?

[Blake]

I'll play...

Caro + 3.5
Pitt - 1.5
GB - 3

I also lke...

Hous - 8
TB + 3.5
Sea - 5.5
Det - 6.5

http://www.thelvh.com/supercontestweeklycard

Awfully quiet up in here

No fat ol s to be found