Player Pairs Analysis - Dec. 16, 2012

[freetiago]

Timvp with the COM bads par the per
ginobili cant dominate bench units consistently
his good games are still masked with the terrible head scratching turnovers
cant get to the rim anymore and his shot selection is becoming worse
hes still a good player and he can still play well but only every few games
last years playoffs were the sign that hes falling off
and the injuries are always a concern with ginobili like they are now
he gets hurt/misses significant time/plays limited minutes to get rhythm/reinjures himself/repeat

Pop needs to start developing a second playmaker for the bench and just hope ginobili can deliver the games 1/2/5 type performances when they matter

hes 35 turning 36 i dont know why people think he can continue to dominate like past seasons
tim duncan is an outlier

[ElNono]

Ehhh... Manu has had a fairly poor season so far *individually*. *His* numbers are down across the board, and time will tell if it's a sudden decline or not (he played great in the Olympics, and that was not even 6 months ago).

But as I also pointed out in the other thread, he's still an useful player. He still commands a certain degree of attention and still can create shots for *other* players.

No CoM stuff there.

His usage hasn't really changed that much. Pop still plays him basically in his same role: spark off the bench, then closing games with Tony and Tim.

[Bruno]

Plus, there are other advanced stats that factor in the compe ion and who Ginobili is playing with -- most notably APM and RAPM -- and they too agree that he is having a very good season.

Any stat based on +/- is basically worthless given how Pop manage his lineups. You had to realize that Pop main starting lineup (Parker/Neal/Green/Blair/Duncan) has been outscored by 6.5 points per 100 possession this year.

Ginobili on the other hand is either playing with a good Spurs bench against, most of the time, a weak bench, or with Spurs best unit (alongside Parker, Duncan and players that match up well and/or are hot).

Let's pretend that Manu's numbers are 100% due to him coming off the bench. Even given that untruth, wouldn't you agree that he's performing his role so well that it would be a shame if he retired?

I disagree that he's performing his role so well. He has been a good player this year but nothing special. It wouldn't be a shame if he retire because there are a lot of player who can play as well as the 2012-2013 version of Ginobili.

[freetiago]

Thats the one thing i dont understand
I watched every spur game during the olympics and ginobili was a top 3 player
Ginobili Gasol and Durant were the 3 best players in the olympics and manu put up some crazy efficient numbers and without him argentina was garbage no offense elnono
undersized old unathletic with no depth
nothing really explains this drop off but sometimes it just happens

[ElNono]

Thats the one thing i dont understand
I watched every spur game during the olympics and ginobili was a top 3 player
Ginobili Gasol and Durant were the 3 best players in the olympics and manu put up some crazy efficient numbers and without him argentina was garbage no offense elnono
undersized old unathletic with no depth
nothing really explains this drop off but sometimes it just happens

No offense taken, and that's the mystery. Time will tell what's the story.

[Bruno]

Ginobili in as recently as 2011 had the best on-off numbers on the team in both the regular season and the playoffs. To say he's only a regular season specialist now is unfair ... or at the very least speculation.

Manu was awesome in 2010-2011.

In 2011-2012, you had to consider that his role changed a lot. His mpg dropped and he played, proportionally, way more with the bench. That's why I said his PER was fool's gold that year. It was inflated by playing a lot against bench scrubs.

[Boomersgold]

Surprisingly, De Colo has a negative point differential when playing with Parker or Diaw, his french national team teammates.

[Paranoid Pop]

Green sucks, that why Manu is such a big upgrade, starters played a lot with Boris, Green and Blair... Blair is comandable for sucking badly enough to get benched early in the season, that was not a given at all with Pop...

I liked the idea of a Neal De Colo backup backcourt with Splitter being the focus and it looks like it's money. Problem Tiago may start from now on but I thnik they will bring in another big so we'll see if this can turn out to be a productive core for the bench.

Green as expected bring the defense down, hustling and looking active don't mean your defense is any good. He needs to go, Manu should start, De Colo Neal as back up backcourt. Of course De Colo Green could work as well, especially if Green is defending the backup PG and De Colo the SG.

[Paranoid Pop]

Also it's not surprise that Boris is only good on D with Leonard, he needs to be sandwiched between Tim and KY for his rebounding not to be a problem.

[Drz]

However, since there’s also no denying that he’s a lock to crumble once the calendar arrives at April

Oh, it's a lock? Guess I can't argue that then.

Pretty amazing that the guy who's consistently 4th on the team behind Duncan-Parker-Ginobili, year after year, will fall to a spot that makes him not worth playing in the playoffs. But hey, if it's a lock, it's a lock. Can't deny it.

[Frenchie]

Surprisingly, De Colo has a negative point differential when playing with Parker or Diaw, his french national team teammates.

TP and de Colo are not pairing well neither in the FNT. They have played better together recently but they're not pairing with ease. That's why Nando is coming off the bench with the FNT whereas Nicolas Batum who is a SF is starting at SG with Mickaël Gelabale at the SF position.

Nando coming off the bench makes him playing less with Boris Diaw who is the starting PF. Nando is one of our most talented players but has always suffered to find his place in the FNT. Being the 6th man seems to be the place where he can produce the most.

[spurraider21]

What worries me about the Duncan-Splitter combination is that we don't have a rim protector on our bench

[wildbill2u]

"It wouldn't be a shame if he retire because there are a lot of player who can play as well as the 2012-2013 version of Ginobili."

Maybe so, Bruno, but they don't play for the Spurs now-- nor are we likely to get them by trade or free agency.

[wildbill2u]

Somebody please tell me why TimVP is always finding an excuse for Jackson. His chart is bleeding red all over the place. He makes everyone but Blair worse, but is the only player that makes Blair look like an All-star. BLAIR!

I don't care if he only played 10 games, the stats are what they are and the ball don't lie. You can't just say, "Well, he'd be better if he had more games" What if he won't be better or, God help us, got worse?

His shooting percentage to date on FG is 37% and 3 pt is 28%. And his stats have been remarkably stable at that level for the past FOUR years. He was never a great % shooter for his career, but those are stats that tell me he shouldn't be shooting the ball ever. I don't want to hear about him making love to pressure.

We got a guy with ice in his veins (Neal) who's shooting 13 pts higher on 3 pt shots over the past three years and he isn't afraid to take the shot. And Manu still ain't bad at closing out games with a tough shot either. I'd trust either of them with the last shot before Jackson, and I bet Pop will too.

This love affair with Jackson has to end. If you want to say he's good to send in as the designated fouler and general bully boy, maybe. But at some point you have to say that he's the guy whose game (such as it was) has fallen off the cliff.

[racm]

Somebody please tell me why TimVP is always finding an excuse for Jackson. His chart is bleeding red all over the place. He makes everyone but Blair worse, but is the only player that makes Blair look like an All-star. BLAIR!

I don't care if he only played 10 games, the stats are what they are and the ball don't lie. You can't just say, "Well, he'd be better if he had more games" What if he won't be better or, God help us, got worse?

His shooting percentage to date on FG is 37% and 3 pt is 28%. And his stats have been remarkably stable at that level for the past FOUR years. He was never a great % shooter for his career, but those are stats that tell me he shouldn't be shooting the ball ever. I don't want to hear about him making love to pressure.

We got a guy with ice in his veins (Neal) who's shooting 13 pts higher on 3 pt shots over the past three years and he isn't afraid to take the shot. And Manu still ain't bad at closing out games with a tough shot either. I'd trust either of them with the last shot before Jackson, and I bet Pop will too.

This love affair with Jackson has to end. If you want to say he's good to send in as the designated fouler and general bully boy, maybe. But at some point you have to say that he's the guy whose game (such as it was) has fallen off the cliff.

Jackson was never a guy whose impact was measurable by box score statistics. As much as I'm one of the bigger stat heads, box score-based basic and advanced statistics have never accurately measured measures like team defense, matchups, and potential scenarios like "floor spacing". Bonner is an elite floor spacer even without an FGA because he's a "threat" to shoot a 3.

[Paranoid Pop]

Sjax can defend most PFs better than anyone on the roster.

[Leetonidas]

I'm starting to become worried about Diaw and his place on the team. Unless he's starting at SF on occasion he has been pretty much invisible and considering how much talent we all know he has that in unacceptable.

[DAF86]

Bruno with the passive/agressive not so subtle "I will never get over the fact that people love Manu more than Tony" butthurt bads per par.

Manu will always be better than what his stats indicate 'cause he will do things like taking a charge, disrupting the opposition offense without getting a steal, making a hockey pass, improving the ball movement with his superior court vision, not dribling the ball for 18 seconds or any other thing that doesn't show on the stat sheet but helps teams win games.

Yeah, he may not be the player he was once but he's still better than any other option the Spurs have to replace him, so yes, him retiring would be a damn shame.

Regarding the OP, to me it's clear that if Neal shouldn't start and he doesn't do well alongside Manu the answer is to start Manu. Is not always bad to start your best players, imho.

That way we kill two birds with one stone: we improve the team and we kill this "Manu's numbers are good 'cause he plays against benches" crap. Win/win, tbh.

[polandprzem]

I never look at those kind of stats as good example what's going on.

Even when somebody like Gino is good in limited minutes, he cannot be consider as a fulltime player.
In the playoffs the minutes would have to increase for him and then the colapse can happen as he was not used to big minutes in the reg season.

Also this is a 5men game and not 2 men game. Also the stats does not include opponents and matchups, cir stances like garbage time etc.

[Bruno]

Bruno with the passive/agressive not so subtle "I will never get over the fact that people love Manu more than Tony" butthurt bads per par.

Yeah, whatever...

[Brunodf]

What worries me about the Duncan-Splitter combination is that we don't have a rim protector on our bench

We don't need to, Splitter just have to play 30min/game, so he can start and play his usual 18min/game with the second unit

[Bruno]

"It wouldn't be a shame if he retire because there are a lot of player who can play as well as the 2012-2013 version of Ginobili."

Maybe so, Bruno, but they don't play for the Spurs now-- nor are we likely to get them by trade or free agency.

Well, Spurs will have cap space next summer to sign whoever they want. After that, it will be the issue on whether or not this player is interested in joining Spurs. And these players will have to be as good as a hypothetical 2013-2014 version of Ginobili...

[timvp]

Timvp with the COM bads par the per

ElNono take notice.

ginobili cant dominate bench units consistently

The Spurs bench is pretty consistent in dominating the opposing bench and Ginobili is the leader of the Spurs bench. Obviously he's not individually as great this year but the results of the domination can't really be questioned, tbh.

hes 35 turning 36 i dont know why people think he can continue to dominate like past seasons
tim duncan is an outlier

It'd be great if he dominates individually at some point. Tbh, the Spurs probably need that to have a chance at a championship. But Ginobili still holds a lot of value even if he "only" quarterbacks the bench into being dominant on most nights.

Non-CoM Spurs fans love to focus on Ginobili's shortcomings scoring-wise yet they hate to admit that his passing is amazingly good. His passing right now is probably as good or better than at any point in his career. He's the best passing shooting guard in the NBA by a large margin and the value that brings to the court is able to camouflage a lot of his current shortcomings.

[Paranoid Pop]

ElNono take notice.

The Spurs bench is pretty consistent in dominating the opposing bench and Ginobili is the leader of the Spurs bench. Obviously he's not individually as great this year but the results of the domination can't really be questioned, tbh.

It'd be great if he dominates individually at some point. Tbh, the Spurs probably need that to have a chance at a championship. But Ginobili still holds a lot of value even if he "only" quarterbacks the bench into being dominant on most nights.

Non-CoM Spurs fans love to focus on Ginobili's shortcomings scoring-wise yet they hate to admit that his passing is amazingly good. His passing right now is probably as good or better than at any point in his career. He's the best passing shooting guard in the NBA by a large margin and the value that brings to the court is able to camouflage a lot of his current shortcomings.

If De Colo is a shooting guard like I think he is then Manu is not a much better passer tbh, he even finds Splitter much easier than Manu. If anuything the most impressive thing about Manu has been his defense this year, because while his passing can be beautiful he turns it over so much. But he's a much better defender than Green for sure.

[timvp]

Any stat based on +/- is basically worthless given how Pop manage his lineups.

It's worthless if you don't know how to put it in perspective. Again, no one should conclude Manu is the best player on the team since he definitely has some built-in advantages.

As an example, when TP came off the bench for a majority of the 2010 playoffs, he had the best +/- stats on the team even though he was obviously not 100%. So I'm not saying that Ginobili is the only player that can do what he does, but it's not like the Spurs can plug anyone into his spot and get similar production. A player like Neal is pretty darn good and should get a decently big contract this summer yet he can't replicate what Manu does.

You had to realize that Pop main starting lineup (Parker/Neal/Green/Blair/Duncan) has been outscored by 6.5 points per 100 possession this year.

That should be realized by anyone trying to say Manu is the best player on the team or something like that. But, tbh, I don't see that.

Ginobili on the other hand is either playing with a good Spurs bench against, most of the time, a weak bench, or with Spurs best unit (alongside Parker, Duncan and players that match up well and/or are hot).

Fair. As I've said the whole time, he receives a bump from his cir stances.

But if you take him completely out of the equation, it's not like the Spurs are able to make-up for his loss. They outscore opponents by 13.88 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court. When Ginobili is on the bench, the Spurs outscore opponents by 3.14 points per 100 possessions. So yeah, Ginobili is doing something right. We can blame cir stances for some of the inflation of his numbers but it just can't be all a matter of cir stances.

I disagree that he's performing his role so well. He has been a good player this year but nothing special. It wouldn't be a shame if he retire because there are a lot of player who can play as well as the 2012-2013 version of Ginobili.

Like who? Name some candidates who: A) are attainable B) would be willing to come off the bench C) have shown an ability to make teammates better


Ginobili has a unique skillset that has been proven to be very valuable to the Spurs. I don't know anyone who fits that criteria who can come in and just pick up where Ginobili has left off.