Player Pairs Analysis - Dec. 16, 2012

[Paranoid Pop]

A player like Neal is pretty darn good and should get a decently big contract this summer yet he can't replicate what Manu does.

Neal alone probably not, a combo of Neal and De Colo on the other hand....

[Mel_13]

It'd be great if he dominates individually at some point. Tbh, the Spurs probably need that to have a chance at a championship. But Ginobili still holds a lot of value even if he "only" quarterbacks the bench into being dominant on most nights.

Non-CoM Spurs fans love to focus on Ginobili's shortcomings scoring-wise yet they hate to admit that his passing is amazingly good. His passing right now is probably as good or better than at any point in his career. He's the best passing shooting guard in the NBA by a large margin and the value that brings to the court is able to camouflage a lot of his current shortcomings.

I'm sure that Pop agrees with this assessment. Going forward, keeping Manu for two more years at something slightly north of the MLE is a no-brainer. Even if he's only a somewhat better version of 05-07 Brent Barry.

Anyway, I appreciate the effort that goes into putting these stats together. I hope that you're planning on periodic updates.

[timvp]

Somebody please tell me why TimVP is always finding an excuse for Jackson. His chart is bleeding red all over the place. He makes everyone but Blair worse, but is the only player that makes Blair look like an All-star. BLAIR!

I don't care if he only played 10 games, the stats are what they are and the ball don't lie. You can't just say, "Well, he'd be better if he had more games" What if he won't be better or, God help us, got worse?

His shooting percentage to date on FG is 37% and 3 pt is 28%. And his stats have been remarkably stable at that level for the past FOUR years. He was never a great % shooter for his career, but those are stats that tell me he shouldn't be shooting the ball ever. I don't want to hear about him making love to pressure.

We got a guy with ice in his veins (Neal) who's shooting 13 pts higher on 3 pt shots over the past three years and he isn't afraid to take the shot. And Manu still ain't bad at closing out games with a tough shot either. I'd trust either of them with the last shot before Jackson, and I bet Pop will too.

This love affair with Jackson has to end. If you want to say he's good to send in as the designated fouler and general bully boy, maybe. But at some point you have to say that he's the guy whose game (such as it was) has fallen off the cliff.

That was a pretty impressive meltdown considering the only thing I said about Jackson was:

There’s probably not much we can take from Leonard or Jackson due to their early injuries. The offense was sputtering early in the season so that’s mostly why they have a lot of red in the offensive chart. However, we’ll have to keep an eye on whether the offense is able to keep humming once the small forwards return.

I offered a valid explanation for the red in their offensive charts and said we should keep an eye on it to make sure that the offense doesn't suffer once they return. I don't see the glorious defense of Jackson that you apparently saw somewhere.

If you want further explanation, you could have just asked, tbh.

Jackson played in the first 11 games of the season. In the first 11 games, when Tony Parker (for example) was on the court, the team scored 106.7 points per 100 possessions. Looking at the charts, you can see that Jackson actually helped Parker offensively during those first 11 games. The cell has since turned red since Parker exploded after Jackson got hurt.

So it's unfair to say that Jackson was the problem early on because basically the entire team started off slowly on the offensive end. But, like I noted, we should keep an eye on it to make sure Jackson (and Leonard, for that matter) doesn't negatively impact the offense when he returns. I don't see a reason why we should definitely think he will or won't ... thus why we need to see.

[ElNono]

ElNono take notice.

Not calling off the raid on your house until I see the next Manu/Tony grades, tbh

[will_spurs]

Bruno with the passive/agressive not so subtle "I will never get over the fact that people love Manu more than Tony" butthurt bads per par.

And the CoM invoking the predictable "intangibles" line of defense when the stats suck per par.

BTW Manu isn't cheap, he is actually the highest paid Spurs player right now. His $14 million a year salary comes off the books next year, I imagine even the Spurs can find a guy who's on par with the current Manu for that much money, even if guys aren't particularly attracted to San Antonio...

[Obstructed_View]

Oh, it's a lock? Guess I can't argue that then.

Pretty amazing that the guy who's consistently 4th on the team behind Duncan-Parker-Ginobili, year after year, will fall to a spot that makes him not worth playing in the playoffs. But hey, if it's a lock, it's a lock. Can't deny it.

Sorry to expose you, Matty, but if you want respect, posting up to defend yourself isn't the way to do it. How about you show up in a postseason? By the way, keep going aggressively after rebounds, and don't be afraid to go for shot blocks and foul once in a while!

[Mel_13]

And the CoM invoking the predictable "intangibles" line of defense when the stats suck per par.

BTW Manu isn't cheap, he is actually the highest paid Spurs player right now. His $14 million a year salary comes off the books next year, I imagine even the Spurs can find a guy who's on par with the current Manu for that much money, even if guys aren't particularly attracted to San Antonio...

That's not a useful standard and you know it.

[will_spurs]

That's not a useful standard and you know it.

Hey, you've got the wrong guy. I'm not the one who brought that to the table by saying "he's still better than any other option the Spurs have to replace him" (DF86), "Like who? Name some candidates who: A) are attainable B) would be willing to come off the bench C) have shown an ability to make teammates better" (timvp), "Maybe so, Bruno, but they don't play for the Spurs now-- nor are we likely to get them by trade or free agency." (willdbill2u) and so on.

A $14m expiring contract + what Manu still brings to the table would certainly interest a couple of teams...

This being said, I hope all the players who have been fixtures of this franchise retire as Spurs, and that obviously includes Manu. His backers shouldn't be so fast to throw the "he's better than what the Spurs have or can get" line around, though.

[Mel_13]

Hey, you've got the wrong guy. I'm not the one who brought that to the table by saying "he's still better than any other option the Spurs have to replace him" (DF86), "Like who? Name some candidates who: A) are attainable B) would be willing to come off the bench C) have shown an ability to make teammates better" (timvp), "Maybe so, Bruno, but they don't play for the Spurs now-- nor are we likely to get them by trade or free agency." (willdbill2u) and so on.

A $14m expiring contract + what Manu still brings to the table would certainly interest a couple of teams...

This being said, I hope all the players who have been fixtures of this franchise retire as Spurs, and that obviously includes Manu. His backers shouldn't be so fast to throw the "he's better than what the Spurs have or can get" line around, though.

The context helps.

[Bruno]

As I've said the whole time, he receives a bump from his cir stances.

As you've said the whole time? Really?
Re-read your paragraph about Manu in your initial post.

But if you take him completely out of the equation, it's not like the Spurs are able to make-up for his loss. They outscore opponents by 13.88 points per 100 possessions when he's on the court. When Ginobili is on the bench, the Spurs outscore opponents by 3.14 points per 100 possessions. So yeah, Ginobili is doing something right. We can blame cir stances for some of the inflation of his numbers but it just can't be all a matter of cir stances.

Spurs not doing well without Manu has a lot to do with them starting a ty lineup that featured Blair. Garbage time and the Miami game also doesn't help Spurs to look good statistically when Manu isn't on the court.

I'm not saying Manu isn't a good player that help Spurs. However, he hasn't been great that year. It's by far his worst year since his rookie season and it's not a wild interpretation of pair stats that change that. For the first time in years, speaking of "big 3" makes no sense. Spurs have a big 2 of Duncan and Parker. Manu is closer to players like Kawhi and Splitter than he is to the big 2.

Like who? Name some candidates who: A) are attainable B) would be willing to come off the bench C) have shown an ability to make teammates better
Ginobili has a unique skillset that has been proven to be very valuable to the Spurs. I don't know anyone who fits that criteria who can come in and just pick up where Ginobili has left off.

Who says that if Ginobili leaves, Spurs should try to replace him with a similar player? There are more than one recipe to success.
If it was up to me and if Manu retires at the end of the season, I wouldn't sign a new SG. I would go with a combination of Green/Neal/De Colo and spend the money on getting a quality bigman.

[DAF86]

And the CoM invoking the predictable "intangibles" line of defense when the stats suck per par.

BTW Manu isn't cheap, he is actually the highest paid Spurs player right now. His $14 million a year salary comes off the books next year, I imagine even the Spurs can find a guy who's on par with the current Manu for that much money, even if guys aren't particularly attracted to San Antonio...

Whatever Manu is making right now I'm pretty sure is offset for that year in 2005 where he was either reason 1a or 1b for the Spurs winning a championship while getting paid less than Malik Rose, not to mention the benefits that you bring to your club for being arguable the most popular player of said club.

But I would love to hear the guys that would be able to bring what Manu brings for that kind of money (even though the Spurs won't be able to sign any free agent for that kind of money).

[Paranoid Pop]

We'll just sign Spanoulis to replace Manu tbh.

[DPG21920]

Whatever Manu is making right now I'm pretty sure is offset for that year in 2005 where he was either reason 1a or 1b for the Spurs winning a championship while getting paid less than Malik Rose, not to mention the benefits that you bring to your club for being arguable the most popular player of said club.

But I would love to hear the guys that would be able to bring what Manu brings for that kind of money (even though the Spurs won't be able to sign any free agent for that kind of money).

Spurs, if they wanted to, would have the money to sign a guy to a quite large contract.

[DPG21920]

Also, is it just me or does it seem like timvp paid Bruno to disagree/play devil's advocate on basically everything he posts this year ?

[will_spurs]

But I would love to hear the guys that would be able to bring what Manu brings for that kind of money (even though the Spurs won't be able to sign any free agent for that kind of money).

Manu is currently the 27th best paid player in the whole league according to http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm

So if you remove the 26 players before that, everybody else is more or less available

[DAF86]

Manu is currently the 27th best paid player in the whole league according to http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm

So if you remove the 26 players before that, everybody else is more or less available

Seriously I would love to hear a reasonable option.

I proposed a Ginobili/Bonner/Neal for Gasol trade earlier on the season, but even that doesn't seem so possible.

[Bruno]

Also, is it just me or does it seem like timvp paid Bruno to disagree/play devil's advocate on basically everything he posts this year ?

I find we agree on a lot of things.

[DPG21920]

I find we agree on a lot of things.

So it is just me - usually the case.

[Brazil]

Regarding Manu, I'd say that he is clearly not having a great season so far but he is still an incredible asset for the Spurs. Besides, he played a fantastic Olympics just a few months ago there is no reason at this point to not believe that he will not play at this level again which by the way is a good answer to ElNono shtick: Manu is old what is TP excuse ? Apparently Manu is not old when he is playing for his NT but he is quite old when playing for a team paying him $14M

[ElNono]

Regarding Manu, I'd say that he is clearly not having a great season so far but he is still an incredible asset for the Spurs. Besides, he played a fantastic Olympics just a few months ago there is no reason at this point to not believe that he will not play at this level again which by the way is a good answer to ElNono shtick: Manu is old what is TP excuse ? Apparently Manu is not old when he is playing for his NT but he is quite old when playing for a team paying him $14M

Coasting, tbh... the Olympics are basically a two week playoffs...

As I said in the Boston game thread, this is just a CIA Manu ploy to spend the holidays with his kids... Non-Issue.

[TMTTRIO]

I don't see Manu sticking around anyways. With all of his injuries in this season alone including all the time it takes him to get his game back close to normal just to get injured again it must be very frustrating to him and probably has lost interest in playing too. Unless the Spurs win this year I see Manu calling it quits at the end of the season so it really doesn't matter.

[chazley]

timvp, glad to see you have finally joined me in relying more on numbers/stats/facts instead of the eye test in regards to Spurs analysis this year. In the past, I was alone even though I knew I was right, but it's nice to have you on my side. On the same note, Bruno has been completely dominated in this thread and I'm not sure why he is trying to bash Manu so hard.

[will_spurs]

timvp, glad to see you have finally joined me in relying more on numbers/stats/facts instead of the eye test in regards to Spurs analysis this year. In the past, I was alone even though I knew I was right, but it's nice to have you on my side. On the same note, Bruno has been completely dominated in this thread and I'm not sure why he is trying to bash Manu so hard.

One thing for sure, you still haven't laid off the drugs.

[ElNono]

The french agenda is pretty transparent, tbh... Manu getting minutes 'robs' De Colo minutes, and any extension to Manu would potentially keep taking minutes away from the frenchman...

[Brazil]

The french agenda is pretty transparent, tbh... Manu getting minutes 'robs' De Colo minutes, and any extension to Manu would potentially keep taking minutes away from the frenchman...