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After neals pathetic defense around screens leading to Terrys open 3s im worried what Kmart will do to Neal
Martin is probably the best offball player in the nba who mostly uses screens to score
Unless Danny grows 4 inches between now and tip time I'd be willing to bet that the Spurs would start
PG-Parker
SG-Green
SF-Diaw
PF-Duncan
C-Splitter
If they do, id expect some early struggles on offense considering this lineup has playing rarely (if ever) together. Any offense lost initially could be made up on the bench and Durant and Westbrook would may struggle finishing at rim, with both Duncan & Splitter patrolling the paint.
Parker Vs. Westbrook-usually cancel each others scoring out. Though Parker's ability to create coupled with Westbrook's occasional boneheaded decision making should give the spurs an edge if the game is close.
Green Vs. Sefolosha-This should be a big gauge on just how much Danny has really improved since last season ( I believe quite a bit) Thabo was switched to Parker in the WCF after Greens jumper went MIA. A double digit outing could significantly improve the chances of winning because Westbrook could be forced to guard Parker for the majority of the game instead of being hid on defense by defending a spot up shooter.
Diaw Vs. Durant-Diaw's perimeter defense at times has actually been fairly good, even if it isn't, he's the tallest wing(ish player) on roster. I'd expect the spurs to dust off the "Dirk Defense" playbook, alot of help defense when Durant enters the paint from Duncan & Splitter and prey he doesn't get easy points off alot of free-throws. Diaw has been more agressive looking for his shot (since the UTAH game) A couple of 3's could go along way to keeping this offense from struggling by adding some floor spacing
Duncan Vs. Ibaka-The first clear cut advantage in the starting lineup. Ibaka's offensive game in limited from the occasion putback or open jumper. Duncan resurgence especially in the post could force Perkins to guard Duncan exclusively. Ibaka would be a more favorable matchup, he isn't nearly the post defender that Perkins is.
Splitter Vs. Perkins-Splitters performance over the course of the last three games has warranted more playing time. I'd expect him to be paired with Ibaka for the majority of the night. If Splitter can produce a double-double including some easily layups the spurs chances significantly improve considering how much the Thunder's offense is perimeter based points in the paint are clear advantage the spurs have with Tim, Tony & Tiago.
Stephen Jackson-I've never seen so many conflicting reports about the status of one player, He tweeted he will play and he will travel with the team, however Po started to he should be ready to go for the Denver game Wednesday without so much as mentioning the OKC game. If he plays the could be a significant boost to the spurs rotation. The Spurs should avoid a Durant vs. Green or even Anderson match-up at all costs.
Patty Mills-Mills has played well recently and should receive more minutes with Manu likely out. He is quick and can attack the rim off the dribble. Having Neal and Mills playing along side of each other with Mills playing the point should help minimize the potential loss of Manu.
Gary Neal-Neal has been inconsistent dating back to the Utah game and his defense has been exceptionally bad. With Manu likely out and Neal possibly returning to the bench, he need to regain his shot and look to score as much as possible with the 2nd unit.
After neals pathetic defense around screens leading to Terrys open 3s im worried what Kmart will do to Neal
Martin is probably the best offball player in the nba who mostly uses screens to score
Knowing OKC is on our path in the playoffs earlier or later, I'd be surprised if Pop was willing to give it his all and unveil whatever he has in mind to counter them. I could see him stick to whatever the Spurs have been doing of late, not worrying about match-ups, and be totally cool about whatever the result is.
Occassional? Ibaka is top 20 in the NBA in volume of shots taken from 16-23 feet and, among that top 20, is #2 percentage wise. In other words, he's one of the most potent offensive weapons in the league fom 16-23 feet.
He makes them at a high rate but his percentage of shots assisted on is very high. He can't create for himself on a regular basis.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holli.../_/league/west
Splitter may not be the defensive threat Ibaka is but is a far more efficient offensive player than him and far better than Perkins, whom has regressed defensively and offensively.
Durant is supremely good on the offensive end but Duncan is 4th and not far behind the gifted Durant; note that Parker is more efficient than the over-hyped Westbrooke...
It is really a wash with the starting units whomever Pop starts, if Spurs bench produces, Spurs will win this game and series this year with the Thunder if it comes to that.
Why are you looking at the West's PER only? Duncan is 6th overall and not 4th as you mentioned.. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics
Also, Parker is just .19 more "efficient" than Westbrook, which I find pretty insignificant.. They're pretty much equal in efficiency and that value could change overnight to Westbrook being just better than Parker.
Splitter's also better on overall team defense. Ibaka's defense is more attuned to help defense and weak side shot blocking. Ibaka's also a stretch 4 while Splitter is a super-efficient inside big (second in FG% in the entire league).
TP has fewer shot attempts (both FGAs and FTAs) than WB but has a better AST/TO ratio.
The important points are that OKC backdoor swept SAS in the playoffs and SAS has a few key guys injured - expecting a loss. I think that OKC will continue to put Thabo on TP (at least in the playoffs when it counts) regardless of who is on Green. Thabo on TP brought SAS' offense to a grinding halt.
With the Diaw, Duncan, Tiago lineup, how do you envision the subs utions? Blair has been awful this year and Bonner is not to be trusted in the playoffs.
PER rewards high volume, low % shooters, which is exactly what Westbrook is. 4th quarter TOs (Westbrook being a specialist) should also count triple. Then the difference wouldn't be .19 for sure.
RT @JMcDonald_SAEN: Post-shootaround, Pop says all the injured guys (Manu, Jack, Leonard) are out tonight in OKC.
The problem for OKC now though is that they don't have Harden who could contain Manu. Obviously it doesn't matter for this game, but they are going to need Sefelosha to guard Manu in the playoffs, otherwise he will eat Martin alive.
duncan, splitter,& diaw could all play 35 minutes with Blair playing all 13 of his minutes with tim or splitter and the same with Bonner. Blair has been terrible this season but playing him less than 1/3 of a game against one of the teams he historically plays well against isn't that big of a risk. This is the 26th game of the regular season not sure why you mentioned the playoffs. Bonner has actually played great in limited minutes this season.
Last edited by cd021; 12-17-2012 at 04:25 PM.
So volume is weighted more than %? That's ing bs, and something I didn't know. I thought Manu was always tops in PER because of his efficiency, as well as his filling up the stat sheet in every conceivable way.
From wikipedia:
Basically inefficient scoring inflates the PER, but that doesn't mean efficient shooters don't get their dues. Manu had a high PER because he was actually efficient, and also because his defense and "intangibles" convert well into statistics, such as steal. This is the other main issue with PER (and many other statistics, to be honest), as defense is very hard to put into number, leading to defensive specialists like Bruce Bowen having very low PER. On the defensive side, only blocks and steals are taken into account (and obviously, rebounds), and Manu has quite a lot of steals.Lastly, PER rewards inefficient shooting. To quote Dave Berri, the author of The Wages of Wins:"Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots."
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