Quick Grades: Spurs vs. Grizzlies - Jan. 16

[racm]

That first half schedule was horrible.

The Spurs are at the halfway point of their season earlier than the other contenders, and it only gets easier. They only play 7 road games in March and April.

[Strategic]

The Spurs are at the halfway point of their season earlier than the other contenders, and it only gets easier. They only play 7 road games in March and April.

But can the Spurs win 60, and will that be enough for home court?

[Mel_13]

That first half schedule was horrible.

The Spurs are at the halfway point of their season earlier than the other contenders, and it only gets easier. They only play 7 road games in March and April.

And on a 60 win pace despite the schedule.

[Strategic]

It was a 4 man rotation at the 4 and 5 last season. They only had 4 bigs on the roster until Diaw signed with them after the trade deadline. There was a short period of transition and then Diaw replaced Blair in the starting lineup and in the rotation.

My mistake, though I do think that Blair continued to start throughout most of the reg season while still averaging 20 mpg over the last 10 games. In the playoffs he did near completely fall off the face of the earth.

[TDMVPDPOY]

And on a 60 win pace despite the schedule.

7 of the 10losses this season, were all winnable games blowing up leads or just waving the white flag against teams that was winnable...

i think pop is not pacing this team for best record in the league, but hovering around where OKC, LAC are to track what sort of seeding we should get heading into the playoffs, either avoiding them early in the rounds or just avoiding them in the playoffs

[DanAu]

I think general expectations of Patty are a little off at this point. Does it really look to you guys that he's being told "go out there, set up every play, look for your shots, your our main go-to guy?" to me no. Seems to me he is told to focus on bringing the ball up the court, spacing the floor and looking after the ball, NOT running sets, NOT being the go-to scorer.

I don't like that he's judged on things that I really don't think he's being coached to do right now. When Patty plays with Manu, its not Patty that's the playmaker, same as when he was with De Colo and same as tonight, when he was with Jack and Neal, half the time they bring up the ball, half the time he just goes to the corner for spacing and helps out when the play gets in trouble.

If that is his job, to be the primary facilitator and an active scorer, then sure, he's underperformed, but for someone who's been given VERY limited minutes, usually with Manu on the court or in garbage time I think tonights game was extremely pleasing and a very positive performance.

Am I a bias Patty fan or just completely wrong?

[timvp]

I think general expectations of Patty are a little off at this point. Does it really look to you guys that he's being told "go out there, set up every play, look for your shots, your our main go-to guy?" to me no. Seems to me he is told to focus on bringing the ball up the court, spacing the floor and looking after the ball, NOT running sets, NOT being the go-to scorer.

I don't like that he's judged on things that I really don't think he's being coached to do right now. When Patty plays with Manu, its not Patty that's the playmaker, same as when he was with De Colo and same as tonight, when he was with Jack and Neal, half the time they bring up the ball, half the time he just goes to the corner for spacing and helps out when the play gets in trouble.

If that is his job, to be the primary facilitator and an active scorer, then sure, he's underperformed, but for someone who's been given VERY limited minutes, usually with Manu on the court or in garbage time I think tonights game was extremely pleasing and a very positive performance.

Am I a bias Patty fan or just completely wrong?

IMO, his biggest negative tonight was defensively, which you didn't mention. I think Mills should be beyond the point where if he doesn't make mistakes, dishes off a few good passes, spaces the court and plays subpar to mediocre defense that it's considered "a very positive performance". To me, he would have been more in the average range if his defense was better tonight.

But again, we're slitting hairs here.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Yeah, I thought Mills passed the ball better than usual. He wasn't great at it but it was definitely an improvement.

That said, long-term he's going to have to score to keep his value. His ballhandling and passing aren't good enough to morph into a distributing PG. Tonight specifically, I thought his defense was really shaky at times. Pop almost jumped out of his skin when yelling at Mills to go over the screen instead of going under.

Overall, Mills probably helped his case of becoming the full-time backup point guard even though this was slightly a below average performance.

Given his performance at the Olympics, late last season for the Spurs, and as a backup in Portland, during the off-season I thought Mills would be a standout backup PG for the Spurs this year. Sadly, I don't see him getting there any time soon - too inconsistent in his shooting and defence for Pop to trust.

I say that very sadly as he's from Canberra where I live and he's a fantastic role model and teammate.

On the flipside, he is still young. Maybe he would thrive in a different system where he could be instant offence off the bench rather than having to run the team?

@timvp, a bunch of posters are calling for bringing in Joseph for an extended run at backup PG - what do you think?

[ElNono]

I thought Jack was phenomenal this game...

[99 Problems]

when its all said and done though timvp, i do like that Mills appears to be working on his PG game. We all know he can score. Its his running of the offense that needed work, and that does seem to be getting better by the game.

Thinking that as well. Got the scoring up his sleeve if needed but working on running that point. Most important he is looking after the rock better. That's what Pop gunna want more than anything else.

[DieMrBond]

And on a 60 win pace despite the schedule.

And according to Hollingers Strength of Schedule, the second toughest so far... which makes it pretty impressive!

[Manufan909]

And according to Hollingers Strength of Schedule, the second toughest so far... which makes it pretty impressive!

Who has the toughest schedule so far?

[DanAu]

IMO, his biggest negative tonight was defensively, which you didn't mention. I think Mills should be beyond the point where if he doesn't make mistakes, dishes off a few good passes, spaces the court and plays subpar to mediocre defense that it's considered "a very positive performance". To me, he would have been more in the average range if his defense was better tonight.

But again, we're slitting hairs here.

Fair enough. I'll admit to being a casual fan and understanding defensive structure, skills and plays is not my strong point, so I'll bow experience on that note, and given that was the basis of the grade, I am placated, cheers for the explanation.

[Ice009]

IMO, his biggest negative tonight was defensively, which you didn't mention. I think Mills should be beyond the point where if he doesn't make mistakes, dishes off a few good passes, spaces the court and plays subpar to mediocre defense that it's considered "a very positive performance". To me, he would have been more in the average range if his defense was better tonight.

But again, we're slitting hairs here.

Again, defense is mentioned in regards to the backup PG, and again, I will say Cory Joseph.

Why is Cory not getting a legit shot at backup PG?

[racm]

But can the Spurs win 60, and will that be enough for home court?

On pace for a 60 win season when you don't factor in the schedule getting much easier post RRT.

[timvp]

Given his performance at the Olympics, late last season for the Spurs, and as a backup in Portland, during the off-season I thought Mills would be a standout backup PG for the Spurs this year. Sadly, I don't see him getting there any time soon - too inconsistent in his shooting and defence for Pop to trust.

I say that very sadly as he's from Canberra where I live and he's a fantastic role model and teammate.

On the flipside, he is still young.

Good point; his youth is often overlooked. It seems like Mills has been around forever but he's just 24 years old. Point guards usually don't start figuring it all out until they are around 28, so he has plenty of time to improve. It's still difficult to pinpoint his ceiling -- there's a chance he could become a full-time starter one day ... there's also a chance that he flunks out as a PG and will have to switch to SG.

I've liked what I've seen out of Mills in these past two games. AFIAK, these were the first two games all season that Pop allowed Mills to be the backup point guard behind Parker in both halves. Mills hasn't been great in these last two but he also hasn't hurt the team. He's making strides with his passing, which is really important.

Can Mills become the backup point guard on this Spurs team? I'm not sure yet. In a perfect world, you'd have a lockdown defender who is also an ace ballhandler next to Ginobili coming off the bench. Mills isn't that but he has strengths (speed, shooting, energy, etc.) that could help the second unit.

Maybe he would thrive in a different system where he could be instant offence off the bench rather than having to run the team?

Truthfully, there aren't many better situations for him. In fact, this might be the best situation for Mills. He's not a playmaker, so being able to allow Ginobili to make the plays while he basically gets to play shooting guard in the halfcourt offense fits him perfectly. When Ginobili is healthy, Mills usually isn't asked to run plays ... his mission is to dribble the ball up the court successfully and then either attack or give it to Ginobili.

@timvp, a bunch of posters are calling for bringing in Joseph for an extended run at backup PG - what do you think?

CJ makes some sense because he best fits the most desired mold (ballhanlder who can defend). But he's also very green and it's probably too late for him to jump over NDC, Neal and Mills to land the gig. I'd like for Pop to give him a shot since Pop is in mad scientist mode anyways ... but I think it's a long-shot that CJ ends up being the answer.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Leonard was pressing offensively for the first time I remember today. He didn't do a lot of it but after a steady stream of long 2's from Gay he had a possession where he got the ball up top dribbled into the lane where of course the Grizz collapsed, didn't give the ball up dribbled it back out did a crossover and turned it over. He soon got yanked and didn't do it again but that was the only time I remember him pressing. Really ever.

What I was thinking is taht it might be a good idea to design a couple of plays for him or call his number a couple of times a game. The puppy needs to start biting but he isn't going to do that with the way he is with Tim, Tony and Manu on the floor unless you structure it such that he does. Dudes got mad talent and he may have a plus midrange jumpshot which could end up making him amazing. Get that train rolling.

[racm]

Leonard was pressing offensively for the first time I remember today. He didn't do a lot of it but after a steady stream of long 2's from Gay he had a possession where he got the ball up top dribbled into the lane where of course the Grizz collapsed, didn't give the ball up dribbled it back out did a crossover and turned it over. He soon got yanked and didn't do it again but that was the only time I remember him pressing. Really ever.

What I was thinking is taht it might be a good idea to design a couple of plays for him or call his number a couple of times a game. The puppy needs to start biting but he isn't going to do that with the way he is with Tim, Tony and Manu on the floor unless you structure it such that he does. Dudes got mad talent and he may have a plus midrange jumpshot which could end up making him amazing. Get that train rolling.

I think KL's shooting above average from every area on the floor. . Running some post ups for him could be nice, if the Spurs elect to use him as a small ball big or force a switch.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

And he did it tonight. He got the ball downlow but too far under took a dribble or two along the baseline with the Grizz bigs still there and got the hook shot off anyway. He later dribbled into a 15 foot jumpshot from the right elbow and hit a couple of threes. Dude has the offensive talent to be special and I don't think saying that is hyperbole prospect talk anymore.

With Manu being out and Green being much more limited offensively it makes sense if you are going to try and force the issue a little that you do it now.

I definitely need to buy his jersey.

[freetiago]

I think KL's shooting above average from every area on the floor. . Running some post ups for him could be nice, if the Spurs elect to use him as a small ball big or force a switch.

well that didnt work but heres the link to his shot chart
http://vorped.com/bball/index.php/pl.../2012-2013-REG
and the eye test confirms what we know
hes shooting over 50% and more near 60% from every mid range area
hes shooting 83.3% from the left baseline but only 33.3% from the right basline

his corner 3 is still elite with 41% from the right corner and 50% from the left corner
hes only weak shooting the ball behind the 3 point arc from straight on and both elbows
but spurs almost never shoot 3s there with any player except ginobili in isos and green/neal off set plays

[DieMrBond]

Who has the toughest schedule so far?

The Strength of Schedule for each team so far is:

01. New Orleans Hornets: .543
02. San Antonio Spurs: .531
03. Memphis Grizzlies: .525
04. Houston Rockets: .524
05. Denver Nuggets: .524
06. Sacramento Kings: .520
07. Los Angeles Clippers: .518
08. Los Angeles Lakers: .514
09. Minnesota Timberwolves: .510
10. Utah Jazz: .507
11. Phoenix Suns: .506
12. Boston Celtics: .504
13. Golden State Warriors: .504
14. Miami Heat: .501
15. Brooklyn Nets: .499
16. Dallas Mavericks: .496
17. Portland Trailblazers: .496
18. Milwaukee Bucks: .492
19. OKC Thunder: .489
20. Philadelphia 76ers: .489
21. New York Knicks: .488
22. Charlotte Bobcats: .488
23. Chicago Bulls: .487
24. Toronto Raptors: .486
25. Cleveland Cavaliers: .484
26. Washing Wizards: .484
27. Detroit Pistons: .479
28. Orlando Magic: .470
29. Atlanta Hawks: .470
30. Indiana Pacers: .462

[freetiago]

looks like the entire southwest divison getting ed over minus the mavs

[spurraider21]

keep in mind really bad teams look like that have hard schedules because everyone they play is better than them

[racm]

looks like the entire southwest divison getting ed over minus the mavs

Also, the Clippers have had a tougher schedule than the Lakers yet are running away with the division while the Lakers keep on knocking on the door of the over .500 club, only to be turned down every time.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

The Strength of Schedule for each team so far is:

01. New Orleans Hornets: .543
02. San Antonio Spurs: .531
03. Memphis Grizzlies: .525
04. Houston Rockets: .524
05. Denver Nuggets: .524
06. Sacramento Kings: .520
07. Los Angeles Clippers: .518
08. Los Angeles Lakers: .514
09. Minnesota Timberwolves: .510
10. Utah Jazz: .507
11. Phoenix Suns: .506
12. Boston Celtics: .504
13. Golden State Warriors: .504
14. Miami Heat: .501
15. Brooklyn Nets: .499
16. Dallas Mavericks: .496
17. Portland Trailblazers: .496
18. Milwaukee Bucks: .492
19. OKC Thunder: .489
20. Philadelphia 76ers: .489
21. New York Knicks: .488
22. Charlotte Bobcats: .488
23. Chicago Bulls: .487
24. Toronto Raptors: .486
25. Cleveland Cavaliers: .484
26. Washing Wizards: .484
27. Detroit Pistons: .479
28. Orlando Magic: .470
29. Atlanta Hawks: .470
30. Indiana Pacers: .462

A couple of observations.

It's no coincidence that the top 11 teams are all from the west and the bottom 11 are all from the East.
Denver has a great chance to be top 4.
Kings aren't that bad at all. A couple of decent trades and they might push for the playoffs.
OKC might struggle a bit in the second half of the season (hopefully). I think the Spurs can beat Clippers without HC, but beating OKC without HC would be extremely difficult.