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The Spurs need an extra shooter to step up with a clutch gene, like the entire OKC frontline did last year. By the end, Jack was the only one who could hit an outside shot.
Taken from Marc Stein's Weekend Dime on ESPN.com:
http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/p...uts-saying-now
I like the fact that the scout noticed the Spurs are better defensively and the improved play of Tiago. It might be interesting come June.
Western Conference scout on if San Antonio is still a legit le contender:
"I thought they could win it all last [season]. I was sold on 'em then and I think they're a better team now. OKC and San Antonio, that's going to be the battle. I still think they're the two best teams in the West.
"The Spurs ... they're just so poised. I don't think they're too old, because they run their stuff so stinkin' well. Their guards know their roles so well and they're so deep. And [Tiago] Splitter has gotten a lot better. He's playing really big around the rim.
"I really think they can beat OKC in the playoffs this time and I've got 'em ahead of the Clippers, too. It's a playoff mentality thing. If [the Clippers] play them in a series, San Antonio is too disciplined in the playoffs.
"They're going to have to be fresh when the time comes [late in the season]. They traded baskets too much last year and it caught up to them. But Pop has them back among the top teams [defensively].
"For me, they're the most fun team to watch. You know what they're going to do. It's like clockwork. [Sitting with scouts on press row,] we'll call out the plays before they do, because we know what they're going to run. But if you stop one thing, they always know how to counter. And they're all on the same page."
The Spurs need an extra shooter to step up with a clutch gene, like the entire OKC frontline did last year. By the end, Jack was the only one who could hit an outside shot.
So close last year. Same players, but better defense. Barring any injuries, this team will have a shot again,
It's not so much who's on the roster but who's getting the minutes.
The rotation last year was
Parker/Neal
Green/Ginobili
Leonard/Jackson
Diaw/Bonner
Duncan/Splitter
Notice who got thrown out of the rotation, guess who got more minutes, and guess who's playing in DPOY form.
Exactly what you would expect to happen when you play your better defenders more and your worse defenders less.
If we take Duncan an Parker as healthy and on their game and Ginobili has relatively healthy then the difference for the Spurs in the playoffs will be two things:
1) Will Splitter continue to beast on the inside and possibly take his playoff game even higher?
2) will Green/Neal/Leonard make jumpers/3s.
Those things fall into place and it's a legit le team.
Tiago averaged somewhere like 10 minutes per game against OKC... I don't see that happening again. Although the problem is OKC does run a lot of smaller lineups with Durant at the 4, making it impossible to have Tim and Tiago at the same time. It's a matter of having Tiago have to defend somebody like Sefalosha during those stretches just so we can abuse them on offense with 2 bigs
The Spurs should definitely try and make OKC adjust to the Duncan/Splitter frontcourt instead of going small to matchup with OKC. No clue if hiding Tiago on an offensive non-threat like Sefalosha will work against a small ball lineup, though.
yeah its going to be tough but playing small ball just helps out okc way too much. granted, i still feel we CAN beat them with small ball, but the odds are further in our favor if we can have tim and tiago out there more often
While I'm still very fearful of OKC come playoff time, and the fact that Spurs have not fared well against the Western Conference's tops team during the regular season is also disconcerning, however I do feel the Spurs are better equipped to deal with OKC this time around.
I saw this earlier on ESPN. Good read, and very interesting take from a Western Conference scout.
2 things need to happen in the finals. 1. Big 3 healthy...... 2. Roleplayers roleplay. Last year we didn't get number 2.
The Thunder are obviously the favorite due to the superstar factor, but I don't see how anyone could argue they are not a legit contender. They were so close last year, going up 2-0 on OKC. Timvp had a good post showing the main reason OKC won that series was ridiculous midrange shooting. I don't see them duplicating that again, especially considering they lost Harden, who killed us. Meanwhile, the Spurs are playing at roughly the same level they were last year when they won 20 straight games.
It also wouldn't hurt of odds if CP3 knee injury turned into something more serious, or Westbrook had a season ending injury
People just don't understand what a BIG drop in talent OKC had from Harden to Martin. It's not as apparent in the regular season, but it will manifest in the playoffs, big time. OKC killed us the last four games with ONE play: multi-threat Harden on the perimeter feeding a Durant/Westbrook pick and roll. Parker couldn't guard Harden, who was too big and physical, and also created for others. He can check Martin, who isn't nearly as physical, and is only looking to score.
TP also defends Westbrook better IMO. OKC's go-to play in crunch time will still be Durant setting a screen for Westbrook while going to his favored spot, but what happens when teams simply deny the passing lanes (helps to have Kawhi) and do their best not to leave Martin/Sefolosha open on the weak side?
Instead of letting them get all the open mid range shots they want
they should just let westbrook attempt to get his and cover everyone else
blow a lot of layups and turn the ball over in traffic
much rather have westbrook control okcs fate vs open abaka jumpers
The problem with TP on Westbrick is he gets switched onto Durant on their pet play. Not good. Not good at all. I'd rather have TP on Martin, and use some combination of Green/Kawhi/Jack to defend the Westbrick/Durant P'n'R. That way a switch doesn't hurt us as much as if TP were in that play.
Makes sense. Green is probably the most competent on-ball perimeter defender on the team (TP's good but not outstanding, primarily due to his lack of length while Kawhi's more of a disruptive help defender, and Jack is better when he's playing physical forwards).
Health, health, health... unlike last season, which was short, the Spurs will have to endure the full 82 games then head on to the playoffs... it's an extra factor for a team whose best players are older...
If everyone is healthy, especially Timmy, I think this team can be better than last season, due to the Jack and Diaw being with the team longer now, and Kawhi and Tiago progression.
To me, if health is not an issue, the two biggest questions marks are:
- The lack of frontcourt depth can hurt us. Foul trouble for Tim/Tiago can be a real problem. You get Diaw in early, and then you have to go play small or bring in Blair/Bonner. Not really comfortable with this.
- Neal and Green are feast or famine. If they're not making shots, their defense just isn't anywhere near respectable to have them out there against the elite, but we're going to need one or both to play meaningful minutes.
Agreed with exstatic about Harden, especially considering Kevin Martin is fragile, both physically and mentally..
I didn't feel like last year's Spurs were a legit contender, I viewed them as a darkhorse..this year's Spurs team is a legit contender IMO..they will still be underdogs against OKC and the keys will be:
1. Duncan and Ginobili's health, particularly Tim..if playoff Duncan can perform at the level we have seen this regular season, the Spurs will have 2 legit stars for the first time in years, and they'll have a standout defensive anchor for the first time in years..Ibaka cannot guard Duncan in the post, and while Perkins may give him trouble, OKC having him on the floor will hurt their offense..
Ginobili needs to produce better than Martin in the series, especially with the unreliability of Green and Neal..
2. Refs..OKC is the most ref-protected team in NBA history..it's expected that the Spurs won't receive the same treatment as the Thunder, but will the refs at least allow the Spurs to play? That wasn't the case towards the end of last year's series..
3. Can the Spurs get a 4th, maybe even 5th guy to produce?..Splitter and Leonard should be the X-Factors, but even hot shooting from either Jackson/Green/Neal could ultimately result in a championship series appearance..
I got spurs edging d clippers a li bit now these last few days but still way behind okc. Sorry spursfans
I think OKC will severely miss Harden in the playoffs. His (and Durants) hard shot making ability was/is crazy. He made some ridiculous shots last year that they will need to get from someone else now because even superstars like KD need "bailed out" from time to time (just see the Finals last when Harden was contained). They're still a of a team, and will be a hard out, but I'm actually more afraid (not signifantly) of the Clippers now.
they don't have harden anymore, they will have to adjust since there is no need to guard all 4 backcourt players since two of them (sepho and martin) need the dish to shoot. Harden could create his own shot and Splitter could not knock free throws, that was the key to those series. Now it should be them to adjust, Ibaka should be eaten alive by Duncan and Splitter if he is by himself, meaning he could get into foul trouble if he's left by himself. therefore it should be them to adjust, not the other way around.
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