The only other thing that I would add to this is next year's FA market. While I won't claim to be a salary cap expert, this is my current take:
If they don't trade, in the summer, they have a salary of $35 (all salaries in this post are in millions) guaranteed (Duncan, Parker, Green, Leonard, De Colo, Joseph). They have Qualifying offers of $4.9 to Splitter and $1.1 to Gary Neal. They have Bonner guaranteed $1 . They have Diaw's Player Option at $4.7 (which based current play, I think he will take up), and Patrick Mills PO at $1.1. They have cap holds of 7.5 Million for Splitter (more than his QO), $19 for Ginobili, $15 for SJax, and $2 for De Juan.
Best case, assume that they take their time about signing splitter (Cap hold 7.5), Dump De Juan, Neal, Bonner, Mills and Sjax's rights, and re-sign Manu to a cheap $7 salary. Add .85 as the cap hold for the 30th place 1st round pick, and they are at $56 committed. The Max salary this season (12/13) was $58, and will be <$60 in 13/14. They will not have cap space to bring in an FA at any number greater than the MLE.
Trading Sjax for someone expensive (say < $11 ) will still leave them space to work under the max salary, assuming Splitter signs for something sane (<$11 say)
Parker $12,500,000
Duncan $10,361,446
Diaw $4,702,500
Bonner (Buyout) $1,000,000
Splitter $11,000,000
Green $3,762,500
Leonard $1,887,840
Nando De Colo $1,463,000
Cory Joseph $1,120,920
Traded for Guy $11,000,000
1st Rounder $850,000
Manu $7,000,000
A total of $66,648,206 would give us 11 bodies, and $4 Million to spend to fill up to 4 slots. We would have the Mini MLE, the vet min, to work with. Assuming the guy we trade for is good, I like this scenario quite a bit better than having the full MLE to spend.
Given what I just posted, my recommendation continues to be take a run at Kirilenko for SJax + Pick(s) this deadline. There are reasons he'd be available (like he can and likely will, opt out this summer), and relatively cheap. He'd fit with Bruno's reasons of a quality big, and can also cover for KL at SF. Finally, it gives us 2 (KL and AK) close to ideal physical profiles for defending Durant and Lebron.
^
I like the idea of getting a player through trade this season and still being able to use exceptions during free agency. It does seem like we might be able to get more talent that way vs. just using the MLE in the off-season. I like Kirilenko too.
But I still think the Spurs will just go with what they have (except for a blair trade maybe) and resign everybody in the off-season. We'll see. Part of the reason I like the Spurs is because so many of their moves are smart (especially compared to some other organizations), so whatever they do, it'll probably be pretty good.
They'd also have the full MLE to spend if they wanted. The tax is probably be at about $72 Million or so. Even if it's at $70 like this season, the Spurs would get the full MLE but would then be subject to the apron for the rest of the season.
Also, don't forget to add two cap charges (I think they're like 350k each), because those have to be included in salary calculations until a team has 13 or more players on the roster.
Does trading for Eric Gordon make sense for you? I think we need a fourth scorer to take the load off TP, and Green isn't that guy http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=bckyxhe
Last edited by FireMicoHalili; 01-24-2013 at 10:47 PM.
I don't think the answer is necessarily within the Spurs roster, but I also don't see them making an addition.
I don't see this as an issue for the rest of this season and come the off season, one of Neal or Mills will be gone. Either they don't trade Neal and they look to re-sign him, in which case Mills opts out, or they trade Neal and Mills opts in.The logjam of guards:
Spurs have 7 guards on the roster. That's a lot and it could create issues. Some players might not be happy about their playing time and hurt the team chemistry while the younger players won't get the necessary playing time to develop their game.
Actually, with how poorly Neal has played for much of this season (even before the calf strain), they don't really have Jackson insurance. Neal was that insurance, because he could have soaked up more of the SG minutes, while Green/Ginobili soaked up more of the SF minutes.Stephen Jackson:
Jack has been good this season. He hasn't shot the ball well and he seems slow on the court. Is it mainly because he is coasting in the Robert Horry mold or is it mainly because he is aging? If Spurs thinks that it's somewhat unlikely that he would be able to raise his level for the playoffs, they need an insurance for him. This insurance could be had without a trade by playing 3 guards lineups but Spurs might want to have another SF on their roster.
I agree that the need has been lowered, but it still remains. Let's not forget, Splitter is an injury prone player and he's never played 30 mpg (which he's basically now doing) in a schedule this demanding.Getting another quality big:
It was a big need earlier this season but this need has been lowered a lot with pop starting Splitter and going with a 3 bigmen rotation of Duncan, Splitter and Diaw. To complement that rotation, Pop can use small ball, Bonner, Blair and Baynes. It's now debatable whether or not Spurs end to get another quality big. If they get one, it should likely be a PF who will have a shot at taking away some minutes at Diaw who has been so-so this season.
Really, all of this is to say they need another player they can rely on. It doesn't really matter whether it's a PF, SF or PG, they just need another body, because right now, they're extremely reliant on the big three + Splitter. Outside of them, the only ones who can be counted on are one or two of Leonard, Diaw and Green, depending on the game.
It's far from being a given.
Mills hasn't earned a lot of money in his career and by opting out he will give up a guaranteed $1.1M. Mills has been so-so this season and if he doesn't play better, I'm not sure he would even receive a fully guaranteed min contract offer next summer in free agency.
Well, Pop can go with a 3 wingmen rotation of Green, Ginobili and Leonard in the playoffs.
There's a lot of teams who could use a backup PG (Cavaliers, Mavericks, Hornets, Magic, 76ers, Trail Blazers, Wizards), so if Neal isn't traded, why wouldn't Mills opt out? Even if he get's slightly less money, if he has an actual opportunity to play consistent minutes and show he's good enough to be a rotation player, it would lead to more money the following off season. And despite his obvious flaws, both his stats and the eye test suggest he can be (on some run of the mill team), so long as he's paired with a ball handling SG.
He can (though I can't imagine him doing so), but if you buy that, even in the playoffs, Ginobili maxes out as a 32 mpg player, then that leaves 64 minutes to be split between Leonard and Green, who haven't shown they're good enough to warrant that many minutes.Well, Pop can go with a 3 wingmen rotation of Green, Ginobili and Leonard in the playoffs.
Something like Blair+midget for Casspi would be good right now, Sjax doesn't play very well and Blair will take minutes away from Baynes if he's not moved soon, preventing us to see what we have before the playoffs.
Maybe because these teams will look after other players than Mills to be their backup PG. Mills is looking this season more like a 3rd stringer than a player able to be a full time backup PG.
Well, it's sure that if you trash every single player, you will come to the conclusion Spurs need someone. If Jackson sucks, Neal sucks, Green/Leonard aren't good enough to play extended minutes, then Spurs will surely need another SG/SF. But that's a lot of assumptions.
Anyway, I guess we will just to agree at disagreeing. We just don't have the same evaluations of some Spurs players.
Last edited by Bruno; 01-25-2013 at 11:58 PM.
I'm torn about weather the spurs should use Jax's expiring right now. He was a great playoff performer last year, but I agree with Simmon's assessment in the ESPN halftime show last night that the Spurs are one piece away. SJax has started slow this year, and I can't tell if hes "Horrying it" or if he's on the decline.
The thing is, what kind of difference maker can SJax bring back?
I'd still be down for McGee, but I don't think Denver is selling let alone salary dumping him...
I'd also be intrigued by Bargnani as a SF, the guy doesn't have the skillset to be a frontline player, he may be too slow but I don't think so, I feel like it's the only way he could succeed... Probably not worth the gamble, especially since he probably would have to start...
Tyreke Evans would be nice as well but we would probably have to take back Salmons and we can't afford to do that.
I know some of you have thought of it: Ersan Ilyasova is the perfect Spur. Do you think he's playing well because he wants out? Guy's on a fat contract, but he's making the most out of every dollar. Wonder what it takes to snag him.
Totally agree with you on this one bud, we're always 'one piece away'. I'm thinking a fourth star, one who can legitimately create his own shot and help TP with the heavy lifting. As it stands, we've got a center in Splitter, who's a system guy, and Kawhi Leonard fills in the stat sheet well even without scoring a lot of points. Methinks we have a hole in the shooting guard spot, since Manu's constantly hurt and Green is a streak shooter at best. I heard he lost weight this summer, which is good, but that improvement alone isn't going to help us much coming into the playoffs. He can't create his own shot, and is an above average defender at best. I'd like to see the Spurs make a play for a younger shooting guard, in the likes of Eric Gordon. Or possibly Danny Granger, who can be had for a PF/PG, says Hoopshype. I just don't think Danny Green is the answer at SG.
SJ is not going to be able to turn it on in the playoffs he is slowing down and unless he is hurt then I don't see him giving us much. I don't think we are one player away maybe two we need another SF and a true backup PG and then we got a solid chance.
He won't be moved, he's too good tbh.
Sure, but with that many openings, there's a pretty good chance he draws interest. He's lightning quick and he's a good three point shooter, which is more than can by said for the likes of Livingston, Ivey, R. Price, A.J. Price, etc. If those guys can be given full time backup PG jobs, I don't see why he couldn't.
I didn't "trash every single player" . . . and the stats back up what I said. When I said "all this is to say they need another player they can rely on", I didn't necessarily mean that has to come externally, I was more so getting at them needing a couple of players to play better.Well, it's sure that if you trash every single player, you will come to the conclusion Spurs need someone. If Jackson sucks, Neal sucks, Green/Leonard aren't good enough to play extended minutes, then Spurs will surely need another SG/SF. But that's a lot of assumptions.
Anyway, I guess we will just to agree at disagreeing. We just don't have the same evaluations of some Spurs players.
Millsy has improved taking care of the rock and his overall defense. Naturally depends on how another coach would want to use him as the back up. Lot of Spurs fans generally underestimate the value of our bench assets. From mid range teams they would be cheap upgrades.
Hoopshype said Granger could be had for a good PG and a PF. Maybe try to understand how this deal works: http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=a9hxgj4
I also noticed there'd be a glut at SG so I solved that too: http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=b6s8fpe
one of those deals where other teams get buttscrewed by the Spurs, but I'd do them in a heartbeat. It's got some appeal to the other teams too. Toronto gets a massive salary dump in the offseason, Utah gets a true PG, and Indiana gets what they want.
Last edited by FireMicoHalili; 01-27-2013 at 02:16 AM.
Please stop. These trades are so ridiculous.
With Rondo out, Celtics will most likely look for some guard help through trade.
IMHO they will start rebuilding...
Maybe but I am not sure if SA could be a partner.
They have Bradley, Terry, Lee and Barbosa, but none of those guys can run a team. Other then Parker and Manu, we have nobody else to play the point effectively that we could send them in a trade.
In a way, they have a very similar situation with SA. A lot of guard depth, but nobody to run the show consistently when Rondo is out. If Parker gets hurt, SA would be in a very similar situation (we would be ed tbh).
Actually given Nate Robinson was decent in the Celtics system you could probably trade Patty (assuming he doesn't veto) and maybe someone like Blair/Bonner/ect for filler. Question is what would the Spurs get back. There's no chance of getting anyone young on a rookie contract so no Bradley, Sullinger, Fab Melo, ect. Spurs fans would kill Pop if he brought in Jason Terry (plus not sure what hes making but salaries probably wouldn't be close). Duncan and KG don't get along. Pierce is probably a lock to be a celtic for life, plus wouldn't really help at a position of need (not to mention his salary). That leaves you with the under achievers like Barbosa, Lee, and Jeff Green none of which are going to make a difference and 2 of them are overpaid.
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