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2K13 comments on Bonner says he's a deadly outside shooter that isn't affected by pressure or defense. Some of you therefore have no idea what you're talking about.
What happened to the players actually 'trying' in an NBA All-Star game?
2K13 comments on Bonner says he's a deadly outside shooter that isn't affected by pressure or defense. Some of you therefore have no idea what you're talking about.
But it makes me wonder, if Blair is in the gym, does Pop insist he's out there on the court at the same time with Bonner?
As self-appointed captain of the Bonner-Doesn't-Care-About-Pressure squad, that even makes me LOL. If there's one place in the world where I'd be okay with a comment like that, it'd be for a video game because the only real way they can determine anything like that is look at reputation and basic past performance stats. They can't spend time analyzing every bench player's attributes.
Perhaps they looked at his "clutch" stats on 82games.com. Those are actually pretty darn good, and well above average --- they're just regular season and not playoffs.
Despite my LOL, I agree with their premise. Bonner's approach has been distilled to the world's easiest formula:
1. If WIDE open, then
2. Repeat same shooting motion Bonner has practiced quite possibly more than one million times in his life.
To say he feels "pressure" in such a situation seems ludicrous. You can't do something as often as he's done it and expect to have trouble repeating it. It's like a PowerPoint presentation in an office... if you've practiced it 1,000 times, there's virtually no way you can be nervous.
The forum doesn't assign the name "snowman" to Bonner for no reason. Timvp posted some stats a year or two ago showing Bonner's percentages in regular season vs post season, and they were night and day. His regular season 3pt % is .416 vs playoffs of .329. He's never shot higher in any playoffs than 37% from 3.
Comparison: Mike Finley, 37% lifetime 3pt%, but 38% in playoffs.
Last edited by DMC; 02-10-2013 at 09:23 PM.
Check other shooters regular vs playoffs. Ray Allen 40% for both. Manu, 37% for both. Bruce Bowen regular season 3pt% = 39%. Playoffs = 42%, Brent Barry, 40.5% regular season vs 41.6% in the playoffs.
Why does Matt drop 25% of his efficiency during the playoffs if it's not pressure?
Forget about Drz. Don't bother replying to him. The guy has never shot a basketball in his life.
If anyone of you is a shooter, then you know what is up with Bonner. Shooters know that he pisses his pants and his mechanics are poor when you need to get the shot off quicker.
anyway, Bonner needs to be traded. He missed free throws tonight. ing pathetic in game shooter when you need a buckets. He misses them most of the time when there is a slight bit of pressure.
The same reason if you flip a coin 10 times, it comes up heads 3 times sometimes, 5 times most times, and 7 times sometimes. Good and bad luck gets spread around the league. To automatically assume that every player who's shot below his career % has done so due to pressure is an enormous fallacy. It's so enormous that it boggles my mind that people think it might true.
Another ridiculous argument. That fact that I only play rec league basketball makes me no more or less unqualified to talk about this than if your ridiculous assertion were true.
But, since you brought up such an asinine argument -- tell you what. If you can produce a video with a series of at least four examples that shows he rushes his shot when a defender is closing out on him, I'll Paypal you $200. You have my word. This post is a binding contract that I will pay you for such a service. Showing that there are a tiny amount of examples it's .0005 seconds different won't cut it, but any semi-realistic proof will. My theory is that his shot mechanics do not change, EVER, because he has spent a lifetime repeating his shooting motion. Prove my theory wrong, and you will get paid.
Sad part is I already know from your troll history that you're going to run with your tail between your legs and not even try to do anything to disprove what I said. Just baseless bashing with zero intelligence, as is par with Ice009.
Look, I am not a great player or anything close to it. My overall game sucks, but I consider myself a decent shooter.
Can you shoot the ball? Would you consider yourself a good shooter? Do you know what it is like to have a little bit of pressure on your shot? Rushing it slightly and shooting with a hint of fear is enough to make you miss that shot.
It's not about repe ion and numbers like you're making it out to be.
I'm definitely not a troll. I am a shooter that gets sick and tired of watching Bonner miss shots in the playoffs or under most pressure situations.
And what kind of re ed statement are you laying out here? His shot mechanics don't change, ever? It's not humanly possible to shoot the ball the exact way every single time within a game. If you are in an empty gym, you can come close, but in an actual game you will have slight variance on your shots. It might not be noticeable to the naked eye, but the shooter will be able to feel sometimes that his shot was off after it leaves his hands.
Bonner shoots set shots, not jumpers, so he needs about twice the space between the ball and his defender and most other shooters. That being said, if you think Matt Bonner doesn't panic under just about any level of duress, you've not been watching the Spurs.
A coin flip will average about 50% heads/tails over time. That doesn't change in the playoffs. Do you honestly think that Matt Bonner has bad luck in the playoffs but good luck in regular seasons? We aren't talking about one shot, but dozens or hundreds. If shooting was a flip of the coin, every shooter would be shooting about the same percentage. It's a skill, not a random event.
Matt doesn't rush his shot. He just misses it. Choking isn't about ball mechanics. It's a mental thing.
how many 3s has he made since the announcement he be in the 3pt compe ion?
Ice009, thanks for the good reply. Your last one imo was just an attack so I responded with equal garbage, but posts like this one, where you ask actual good questions and show you've thought about things, are much appreciated. No offense meant with the troll label, perhaps you are worthy of your big bold name.
No, you're correct, my shot is the weakest part of my game. It's fair to say I'm a "terrible" shooter, even by rec league standards. And I definitely agree that rushing a shot leads to more missed shots. My argument is that Bonner doesn't rush his shots. That's part of what leads to some criticism of him on here.... "he passes up open shots because he's afraid!" people say. I say, he passes up shots where he's not 100% confident that he has a good open look, and he does so because he feels that if he's not 100% open, it's better for the team for someone else to get a better shot.
But can I prove that? I can't. I've seen Bonner in person a couple times around town, and next time I see him, I plan to ask him about the pressure issue. No matter what he says, should be an enlightening answer.
Well, yes, but we're talking different things. You're talking how it varies in the same way a bowler varies --- no matter how much you TRY to not vary, it inevitably will. And I agree. But I'm saying that despite that inevitable variation, the actual motion that he's attempting to do never varies. For example, he doesn't slightly speed his motion up if a defender is closing out on him (instead, he passes out of the shot).
This one can be proven or disproven with some video analysis, but it would take more time to analyze than I think anyone here is willing to put in.
Gauss is rolling in his grave.
You agree that a coin flip has a 50% probability, right? Perform 20 series of 85 coin flips (85 = # of Bonner career playoff 3 point attempts). Will all 20 series have exactly n=42.5 heads? Of course not. That'll be approximately the average, but you'll likely see some much higher and some much lower. One might be as low as, say, 30 heads.
So here's the key question: That 30 heads, that was, say, Series #6. Was that unlucky? Yes it was. But does that mean the next time you do this that series #6 will continue to be unlucky? It might be, it might not be.... but we don't know that. Having had bad luck in the past tells you NOTHING about whether it'll be lucky in the future.
Does this translate to basketball? Yes it does. Because even if we DO say, hey, basketball is different, it's not a coin flip. There's skill and pressure and the human element involved. Yes, that's true, there is. But it only affects the outcome to a small degree. The shots STILL follow the binomial distribution, even with the human element, so it's an inarguable FACT that some players will have been less lucky in the past, and that it does not tell you anything about how they will perform in the future.
Per Game
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Season Age Tm Lg Pos G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS 2004-05 24 TOR NBA C 82 0 18.9 3.0 5.6 .533 0.5 1.1 .424 0.7 0.9 .789 1.3 2.2 3.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 2.7 7.2 2005-06 25 TOR NBA PF 78 6 21.9 2.7 6.0 .448 1.3 3.1 .420 0.8 1.0 .829 1.1 2.5 3.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 2.8 7.5 2006-07 26 SAS NBA PF 56 0 11.7 1.9 4.2 .447 0.6 1.7 .383 0.5 0.7 .711 1.1 1.6 2.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.2 4.9 2007-08 27 SAS NBA PF 68 3 12.5 1.8 4.3 .416 0.7 2.0 .336 0.6 0.6 .864 0.8 2.0 2.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.6 4.8 2008-09 28 SAS NBA PF 81 67 23.8 3.3 6.6 .496 1.5 3.3 .440 0.2 0.3 .739 1.2 3.6 4.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.5 2.3 8.2 2009-10 29 SAS NBA PF 65 8 17.9 2.6 5.7 .446 1.4 3.6 .390 0.5 0.7 .729 0.8 2.5 3.3 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.7 7.0 2010-11 30 SAS NBA PF 66 1 21.7 2.6 5.6 .464 1.6 3.5 .457 0.5 0.7 .744 0.9 2.7 3.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.7 7.3 2011-12 31 SAS NBA PF 65 2 20.4 2.4 5.4 .440 1.6 3.8 .420 0.2 0.3 .762 0.4 2.8 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.0 6.6 2012-13 32 SAS NBA PF 44 1 12.5 1.6 3.3 .483 0.8 1.9 .451 0.1 0.2 .571 0.4 1.6 2.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.1 4.2 Career NBA 605 88 18.5 2.5 5.3 .468 1.1 2.7 .417 0.5 0.6 .776 0.9 2.5 3.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.9 6.6
Playoffs Totals
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Season Age Tm Lg Pos G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS 2006-07 26 SAS NBA PF 9 0 25 2 7 .286 1 4 .250 2 2 1.000 2 1 3 0 2 0 3 6 7 2007-08 27 SAS NBA PF 2 0 9 2 3 .667 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 2008-09 28 SAS NBA PF 5 5 100 5 23 .217 3 13 .231 2 2 1.000 6 10 16 0 3 2 2 10 15 2009-10 29 SAS NBA PF 10 0 173 19 44 .432 10 27 .370 2 2 1.000 7 25 32 4 1 3 7 22 50 2010-11 30 SAS NBA PF 6 0 123 12 25 .480 6 18 .333 8 10 .800 7 12 19 2 1 1 1 18 38 2011-12 31 SAS NBA PF 13 0 165 10 32 .313 8 23 .348 3 5 .600 2 23 25 9 2 4 3 24 31 Career NBA 45 5 595 50 134 .373 28 85 .329 17 21 .810 24 73 97 17 9 10 16 80 145
Why does Bonner's coin land differently than anyone elses?
There was another 3pt shooter who had a similar problem but his legacy overcame it through timely shots and association: Steve Kerr
Drz won't respond to this but here is a Bonner truth bomb:
The percentage chance that Bonner's drop in three-point percentage in each of the last six postseasons is solely due to bad luck is approximately 1.563%.
I mean, yeah, I guess we can hope that Bonner is just supremely unlucky. Orrrrrrrrrrr ..... we can go with the other 98.437% and believe there is something else going on rather than simple bad luck.
Hopefully it was just bad luck, speaking of bad luck in the playoffs it reminds me of Ibaka shooting midrange jumpers like he trained Antonio McDyess or something...Bonner's catapult shot is too slow and low I suppose come playoffs time?
Bonner is not as good under pressure of course but there are other reasons IMO for this playoff drop
- Ray Allen, Manu are really good off the ball using screens to get open even in the playoff. Bonner only stay at his spot or on a few occasion will get a shoot from a pick and pop but that's it. And in the playoff against good teams, it's not enough
- Ray Allen, Manu can actually shoot contested 3pts shot at a decent %
- Bowen, Barry were still in a Duncan centered system that provided wide open 3pt in the regular season AND the playoff from the double team on Duncan. Bonner played decent playoff minutes only in the post Duncan system where we don't have anymore a player systematically double teamed even in the playoff.
His choke issue is overrated IMO. His game is just not suited for the playoff.
Edit : Just checked the stats for the 3pts shooter role player of the team in the last 2 years and in one year with prime Duncan :
2012 :
Danny Green : 0.436 in RS => 0.345 in Playoff
Matt Bonner : 0.420 => 0.348
I don't include Neal because he is in the Ray Allen / Manu category (create his own shot / get open with screen / can shot contested 3pt)
2011 :
R Jefferson : 0.440 in RS => 0.353 in Playoff
Matt Bonner : 0.457 => 0.333
George Hill : 0.377 => 0.267
Danny Green : 0.368 => 0.250
2005 :
Bruce Bowen : 0.403 in RS => 0.433 in Playoff
Devin Brown : 0.372 => 0.429
Robert Horry : 0.370 => 0.447
Beno Udrih : 0.408 => 0.270
Brent Barry : 0.357 => 0.424
Last edited by eric365; 02-11-2013 at 07:04 PM.
I don't bet, but here's a good friendly bet for you all debating this issue.
In this year's playoffs, Bonner will shoot his overall regular season 3 pt percentage (for the last 4 years, including this year) or higher vs. lower than this overall regular season percentage (same time frame). Minimum 22 shot attempts. In other words, if he doesn't have at least 22 3-point attempts no one wins.
There's no randomness in shooting. You are in control of the ball. You decide when to shoot and when to not shoot. Bonner, if he was under more pressure, could have taken fewer shots. We who have watched, we know he was wide open and just missed.
Source? I'm assuming you're using a binomial CDF. If so, what were your assumptions for a population n and p?
You seem at least fairly math-inclined, but if you don't want to do the work, let me know what I should use for n and p and I'll calculate the odds. It's a quick Excel function. I'd choose n and p on my own in a way I think is reasonable, but if I come up with them then people won't give the number any credibility.
Edit: Also, minor quibble, and I think you realize this. Saying "we can go with the other 98.437% and believe there is something else going on rather than simple bad luck" isn't how the odds work.
any updates here ? hehe
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