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greens stats of improvement would be assists, steals, and points. he could improve all those with more minutes and a good system.
Not when it's you guys having fantasy scenarios about what kind of player green is, or can become.
greens stats of improvement would be assists, steals, and points. he could improve all those with more minutes and a good system.
trying to speculate if ferry would bite on green as the major piece for a smith trade.
I think the idea that Ferry would want to re-acquire his personal project is reasonable. But Green being something that hasn't happened the last 25 years at his peak I don't think is reasonable.
If we could get Fab Melo I'd be up for that. He's a bit goofy. Recently he sustained a concussion by hitting his head walking through a door at a South Dakota hotel room during a D-League road trip. But he does seem to be improving: Ever since Fab Melo had that monster triple double against the Erie Bayhawks on December 22nd, where he logged 15 points, 16 rebounds, and 14 blocks, Melo has turned his D-League season around.
Prior to that game, Melo was averaging 7.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game shooting 49% from the field.
After that game, Melo has been averaging 16.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 4.4 blocks, shooting 56% from the field.
14 blocks in a game even at the YMCA is damn impressive. I would say there is more upside there than Blair.
Adrian Wojnarowski @WojYahooNBA
Still many involved for Atlanta's Josh Smith, including Bucks, Nets, Celtics, 76ers, Wizards, others, sources say. Strong belief he's moved.
At this juncture, I'd like to clarify that I don't think Green can be a star. I was just answering another poster's question. I think Green would have to become a player he's simply not right now to do that.
To answer your question, I would say Parker and Ginobili had more help than Green has had. Duncan circa 2003 was just as incredible as 2013 James, if not more so because of his position. Robinson was on his last legs, but he was still a good defender. They also had each other, Bowen and Jack, though obviously they weren't the same players as they'd become. Green isn't going to carry a team at any point like the Big Three, but I don't think Leonard is, either. Leonard is doesn't feel like a star to me. I see becoming the Al Horford of small-forwards: consistent boarderline all-star, really good salary but not max, great player, but not a great centerpiece.
So for Leonard to average 20/8/4/2/2 (which is pretty much what he'd have to average to be a star in my book), he'd need to add 7.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, -0.1 steals (yay, he's there) and 1.4 blocks to his per 36 numbers. Because his game doesn't have the same obvious fixable holes that Green's does, I'm less optimistic that he'll reach star status than I am that Green will reach great role-player status.
Nine players are currently averaging 2 or more steals per 36 (including Leonard), and another 12 average at least 1.7. That could change, but it certainly doesn't see too far fetched in today's league. The blocks I'd probably agree with you on. That's really ambitious.
That's just an idiosyncratic argument. Who cares if players have averaged those exact numbers at over their careers? Take away a couple of assists and add a couple of points, and you have Green's estimated production if he can learn to finish. If he gets 17 points and three assists instead of 15 and five, I don't think that makes a difference. Also, if someone is just a half a point/assist/etc. away from reaching a mark, they really should be counted. As far as I'm concerned, Andre Iguadola has averaged 15/6/5/2/1 per 36 over his entire career.
A ceiling is not supposed to be incredibly realistic; it's not supposed to be what the player will achieve if he barely improves. Maybe Green's ceiling is a less-athletic but better-shooting Iguadola. Outside of assists, their per 36 numbers are pretty much the same.
Last edited by Chinook; 02-17-2013 at 06:19 AM.
Chinook, don't throw stuff around if you don't want to get called on it. Objective is right to say 2 steals per game or 2 blocks per game are completely unrealistic for Green. He'll never even sniff those numbers, not even during one hypothetical peak season.
Most people have an inflated view of which stats are considered likely for any given player. We have the same problem with people causally throwing around that some big men (prospects) could average a double-double, when the reality is that very few manage to do it over a season, let alone over a career. It's the same here.
I understand that when talking about "ceiling" we have to reach somewhat high, but we have to stay realistic as well. If Green could ever reach 15 & 5, even only that, even only on a per 36 min basis, that would already be nice. He's not even there per 36 this season (although he's close). And that's still a far cry from being an All-Star.
Finally I find it quite humorous that you can in one thread belittle Kawhi's potential to be a regular All-Star and in another defend Green's ceiling as a potential All-Star. The first statement is a LOT MORE likely to happen than the 2nd. And your target numbers for Kawhi to be an All-Star seem equally unrealistic to me. Noah is an All-Star with 11/10/4/1/2 per 36...
Yeah, that's got "Spurs material" written all over it.
One team seems to be missing. Hmmm.
RC's Billy Bean trade phone call imitation is done. Everyone who was interested in whatever player RC is really interested are now chasing Josh Smith.
My thoughts exactly. Looks like the Wiz, bucks, and Cs took the bait. Wonder what RCs commission from Ferry is going to be.One team seems to be missing. Hmmm.
RC's Billy Bean trade phone call imitation is done. Everyone who was interested in whatever player RC is really interested are now chasing Josh Smith.
http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/s...ap-sources-say
Sources with knowledge of the situation told ESPN.com late Saturday there is a level of mutual interest between the Clippers and Utah Jazz in exploring a deal that would feature Bledsoe as the headliner in a trade package for Jazz forward Paul Millsap.
I didn't say it was wrong to argue it's unrealistic. I said that it makes very little difference to me to say something like, "He'll never average 2 steals a game; the most he'll ever average is 1.7." That's why it's idiosyncratic; it's based on little differences. I completely conceded that the blocks were an unrealistic expectation, as well as the assists. But I said he could be even better in other areas (like points) than I projected him to be, which in my opinion means he would still be a top-end role player.
And before critiquing me, you should read my posts more carefully: I specifically said Green would NOT be an all-star. I also said Kawhi could be an all-star (certainly an occasional one) but that I don't think he'll be a championship cornerstone. The numbers I projected for Green's ceiling should be Leonard's floor (minus the assists). I firmly believe he'll be good for a long time (hence why I bumped the COK thread a few days ago).
EDIT: And I don't think disagreeing with objective is in any way dismissing his (or her) opinion. I appreciate the stats provided to help me understand what I was projecting and how good Green would have to be to reach those goals. The fact that Iggy is the only player who is doing what I think Green could do is exciting, not discouraging.
Anyhow, I think we started to move toward a consensus on our disagreements before you jumped in.
x2
so danny green at his best would look more like iggy than ray allen? i buy that. i was just curious what the geniuses would compare him to since ray allen was SOOOOO off.
so a potential iggy, sjax, blair, and this years 1st for smith?
i think that deal would free up enough cap space to even re-sign smith and splitter. i did the math in one of these trade threads. that's the deal i hope goes down.
imo, smith and splitter would come back at less than max. spurs would have a dynasty caliber team and i don't think either would walk away.
I didn't say that either. I was just commenting re: your general stance in this thread. I agree you started to see the light partway through the discussion
I usually value your takes but thought they were a bit extreme (in both cases) this time (at least when you first expressed them).
Coming back to the thread, is Blair going to be traded or not?
utah would be really smart to get bledsoe. the clipps would be smart to get millsap.
but i think the clipps should get a pick or something too. bledsoe is worth more than millsap.
Why are we talking about Green who is a great bench player but will never be a starter for any other team then the Spurs or Bobcats? I thought this was about trades and not Fantasy Basketball?
I'd be thrilled if the Clippers trade Bledsoe for Millsap. The Spurs can defend Millsap. Bledsoe, though, hits the Spurs at their weakest possible spot (backup point guard [specifically, ballhandling and perimeter defense of the backup point guard])
It's pretty clear, especially after Woj's tweet, that the Spurs never really had an interest in Smith. As others have said, it appears they just did ATL a favor by dropping that rumor.
I dont see the Spurs really doing anything because there is not a huge need. Just moving Blair and thats about it.
I agree with tim
Bledsoe is a nightmare for us. It doesn't matter if it's Manu, Neal, Nando or Mills handling the ball in the 2nd unit. The dude gives SA a lot of trouble when he is on the court.
Millsap got owned by Boris last season. SA has no problem defending him.
Well, it's not as clear as that for me. Spurs being genuinely interested in Smith remains a legit possibility.
In the end, I think Blair will be moved for the rights of an Euro (stashed in Europe) or a 1st round pick swap.
What tangible evidence have you seen that there is a legit interest? No team need, questionable fit, lack of assets in reality, contract questions, chemistry concerns and nothing outside of one little blurb about the Spurs and Josh Smith with no other credible info on that. Not to mention Woj not mentioning the Spurs after listing a lot of teams signals to me it was not a real interest. Could be wrong, but I am not seeing it add up.
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