If one were to glance in a cursory manner at Patrick Mills statistics on the season, one would wonder why he hasn't become a fixture in the rotation. The Spurs historically value reserve guards who can score. And with Manu Ginobili able to handle most of the playmaking responsibilities of the bench unit, Mills' lack of natural point guard instincts are much less of an issue than would be the case on most teams.
So why has Mills thus far been unable to crack the rotation? His true shooting percentage of 57.4% is eighth best in the NBA for point guards. Mills also scores more points per minute than a handful of luminaries at his position including Steve Nash, Rajon Rondo, Jeremy Lin and Jose Calderon.
Unfortunately, if one replaces the cursory glance with an in-depth analysis, the picture that is painted makes it clear why Mills has been unable to gain traction this season: His statistical successes have mostly been ac ulated in garbage time.
When the Spurs have been leading or trailing by more than 10 points this season, the Australian has produced amazing numbers. Prior to tonight's game against the Phoenix Suns, in that context Mills has shot 42-of-82 (51.2%) from the floor and 22-of-45 (48.9%) on three-pointers.
However, when the spread is no more than 10 points, Mills has been a totally different player despite a nearly identical sample size. Prior to tonight, he was 31-of-79 (39.2%) from the field and 13-of-46 (28.3%) on threes during close games.
More evidence of Mills' untimely shooting: Coming into tonight's affair, he was 17-for-47 (36.2%) from the field and 4-for-24 (16.7%) on three-pointers during first and second quarters -- the periods that are mostly likely to be hotly contested.
It goes without saying that he needs to be more than a garbage time All-Star to win a spot in the regular rotation. Mills must exhibit an ability to shoot it straight in the guts of the game.
Tonight against the Suns, Mills thrived in the first half as he scored eight points while spearheading San Antonio's attack. It's this type of production that will give him a chance to become an everyday player for the Spurs.
An aesthetically-pleasing stat sheet tells only part of the story. The other part of the story is told by context. Statistically, Mills has been very good this season. Contextually, he has struggled. For a team with lofty goals, context is king. Hopefully tonight's performance by Mills proves to be the catalyst in aligning his true value to this Spurs and his remarkable statistical production.
A flawed post in my opinion.
How can you term a period where the Spurs are trailing by more than 10 a garbage period. Performances during this specific time period could also be crucial for comebacks (his early fourth quarter runs in some previous games are testimony). I think you have to remove this or contextualise this better to assess Mills' contribution.
Agree.
Spurs lost some games due to lack of garbage points...
i dont buy Manu being a full time backup point
at this point in his career hes a good change of pace who can catch teams of guard with his left handedness and quirky footwork
he becomes predictable when they rely on him too much and he starts to turn it over more and attempts things he just cant do anymore
Spurs need a true backup point guard and let Manu play offball more
hes still one of the best in the league at it and he kills so many guys with his hard cuts
he did a lot of his foul drawing off the ball on catch and shoot pumpfakes
De Colo fits that best and Mills is the better fit when Manu is ball handling
but you dont wanna just play a guy 5 minutes in one half and let manu go off ball and let the other guy play a few minutes while ginobili handles the ball
Mills best role in the nba is probably a energizer off the bench who can score quickly but isnt to be relied upon
hes won a few games doing that
A memphis game sticks out the most to me
Reasonable point but: 1) Obviously it's going to be flawed to some degree since I used general cutoffs 2) I was aiming at making a general point and it's clear that generally it's more important to shoot well in close games than it is to shoot well when the score isn't close -- we could run a leverage report and those numbers would agree with that basic assessment 3) We're dealing with a small sample size as it is; hacking it further would likely produce diminishing returns
The tl;dr of the matter is Mills has unequivocally struggled in close games and in first halves. Given his overall strong numbers, my humble opinion is that those struggles are notable and have played a role in his inability to nail down a role.
He's simply not suited to go against starting-caliber units, that's what it tells me. But that's why the Spurs have Tony Parker anyway.
Nice read. A number of those closer games Mills has been used very briefly and as that 'change of pace guy'. Hustle more so.
Fair enough. A look at those situations (again small sample size but not unsubstantial) where the Spurs trailed by 10 and more shows that Mills has generally helped in cutting the deficit. He has made 13 of his 20 FG attempts - 8 of them 3 pointers when the Spurs trail by 10 or more, most of them in the early-mid 4th quarter.
Link: http://bkref.com/tiny/QPfr7
It doesnt take away from what you say, but it does adduce to the fact that Mills is a very good change of pace option, who can catch a complacent opposition off guard.
Subjectively, I've always thought Mills is best used as a change of pace option, as you put it. He seems to be really good at bringing life to the team when they find themselves back on their heels.
But if Mills is ever going to play meaningful, consistent minutes, he needs to have more than limited usefulness. If Mills is only viable when the Spurs are down double-figures in the second half during a time when Pop isn't playing TP and Manu, that's a really narrow window.
I really dont see how anyone could make a sure decision at the moment on what to do with the PG minutes. With Mills and De Colo not getting many minutes and giving frustratingly inconsistent results, not to mention Neal's early season heroics tapering off to well....much the same as Mills and De Colo, then you have CoJo given probably what could be translated to (if those games were vs NBA teams) similar performances in the D-League.
Its frustrating to watch the merri-go-round of who plays the minutes each game with seemingly no consistency. I am just hoping that there is some kind of master-plan going on that we're all blind to.
Further to that, and not being an avid NBA follower, do many other teams have a secondary backup guard that fills the roll that Mills is filling? The Energizer Bunny roll for limited minutes situationally? Is it a position/role worth filling a roster spot with? Seems to me that Nate played a similar role a few years back, but that he's made his game more consistent and solidified his position.
That type of player seems to drift from team to team each season or during the season in trades, but might be worthy of a bit of cash if that role really suits the team.
Reminds me of 2011 Barea.
I hope I can shed some light on this a bit.
As some of you are aware I have irregular dialogue with Patty from time to time. What you need to keep in mind with Mills is 3 things.
1. Patty attacks everything with a bit between his teeth, from his morning cornflakes to 2nd quarter three point attempts, he has one gear, flat out. He is acutely aware that his opportunity to become the permanent back up is his to own, and this year, thats his goal, he wants it badly, so it probably provides him a propensity to force things a little, Pop and BB are well ware of this, hence Pop is frequently working with him to not force things and let things come to him, most will note his more "constrained" offensive approach he has adpoted the last few months with the message facilitate dont try and dictate. FO are well aware that Patty has the tools to drive a game off his own hand. His speed with the ball in his hands has few rivals in the league and when on his ability to create his own shot with that speed is going to be a handful for any leagues second unit, but he needs to work on his all around game. Patty knows consistant offence will help his cause in gaining more minutes, particularly if he can score at a higher clip than Neal, and there are a couple of guys in the team that really want him to succeed so much so that he will be feed the ball quite a lot on O but again, the passing which he has been working on will help his cause further. His D has come on leaps and bounds since he crossed from Portland.
2. The Spurs plan for him is long term, his plan long term is to work his way into being TP's unquestionable backup and then take over one Tony hangs up his boots, he loves the Spurs and is a fiercely loyal person, so he would be happy to work on a fairly low (by NBA standards) wage to stay.
3. People forget how young he is, he left college after his Sop re year, played 2 years at Portland with little guidance and landed with us late last season. Its hard because he had logged so much playing time in the worlds eye, pin up for SMC, all the international stuff, Olympics etc, a successful stint in China that people thing he has been around for longer, when in retrospect he is only in his 2nd year out of college in effective years. Personally I thought he should have returned to SMC as a junior after he broke his hand. His Olympic showing and his game against Steph Curry in post season play had many believing he could go first round that year in a year full of point guard options. But hey I cant complain, going the long way around he ended up on my fav team. I think he is worth the development long term. I really which more teams in the nba would look at roster spots 13/14/15 as long term. I do think though Patty should be in the 10 right now.
http://www.nba.com/spurs/video/2013/...llsmov-2396021
Postgame: Patty Mills
Thanks, really interesting to hear, especially the part about developing him long-term. I really do want to see Patty succeed as he just seems like such a great guy and I would be happy to have him playing on the Spurs in the years to come.
Nice insight benfti. Nice ref re Mills v Curry. Perhaps in time we look back at at Delladevova v Lillard from late 2011 when SMC & Weber State went at it. Who knows? Lol.
Mills is a player. Players need to play.
Remember all the Splitter haters and doubters when Splitter rarely touched the floor and if he dared make a mistake or underperform - the haters would parrot Pop's comments that Splitter is just a limited player.
Splitter now plays regular rotation minutes and he magically seems better. Not brain surgery.
Players need to play to be who they always have been at every level they have played in since they were kids - yup - players.
Let Patty play regularly and he will be who he has always been....wash, rinse, repeat...
...and on the other side...chokers will always be chokers...even with EXTENDED playing time...
when the pressure mounts...they will revert to who they have always been...yup...chokers.
Don't need to mention any chokers names.
I agree Manu's got to play of the ball more. Start him and let him play of the ball and then bring in a Nando/Green backcourt.
I think the problem that Neal, NDC and Mills is the same one.
They still don’t know what they have to do.
I don’t care what they say, or what Pop says, at the end the position they play and the responsibilities change from game to game and that’s Pop fault.
Who can answer me which player is the Backup PG for the POs? What other team in the league has that same problem? (yeah yeah...I know...the Spurs have the best win%)
The worst think the Spurs can do is not have a plan.
That’s the reason I think CoJo won’t have opportunities to play. If he starts to play the problem is even worse.
Agreed. It's a lack of consistency in their playing times that have made them seem inconsistent themselves. If Pop were to choose a player to develop, and stick with him throughout the course of 1 season, then we'd probably be seeing much more development from that chosen player.
Interesting insight. Many here believe that Patty will opt out of his contract this summer and look for a team that offers more potential playing time. I listen to his interviews and watch him with the team and believe that he'll stay.
I agree, I think Mills will stay and occupy Neal's spot in the rotation. Neal hopefully gets plaid by some team, dude deserves it.
Mills is also a guy you just want to have on your team. He doesn't complain, is truly a team player, and is ecstatic about the team. He's always the first off the bench during a timeout to High-Five the team, he RUNS to pick up guys off the floor during the game (when two Spurs were on the floor, he RAN and picked both of them up before any other player even thought about it), and is just a morale booster. With all the other nut jobs around the League, Mills is a Team Chemistry Builder when it comes to statistics off the court.
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