Reply With Quote
I'd switch GS and HOU due to the schedule, but I agree with the overall analysis. If the Lakers are going to overtake anyone, it's Utah. Dallas is screwed imo.
It is very likely that the top 5 spots in the West will be taken up by SA, OKC, Clips, Grizz and Denver in some order. The remaining 3 seeds are going to be contested by 5 teams: the Warriors, Jazz, Rockets, Lakers and Mavs. Portland has fallen off a cliff, and the Wolves / Pelicans / Kings / Suns are counting lottery balls. Here is my take on the chances of these 5 teams to snag a playoff spot.
Current standings:
6. GSW 32-23
7. UTA 31-24
8. HOU 31-26
9. LAL 27-29
10. DAL 25-29
I will analyze the teams' remaining schedules based on 4 parameters: Home v/s road games left, Back-to-back games left, Winning % of teams they will play, and Games left v/s each other
Home v/s road games left
GSW: 16 H, 11 R.
UTA: 14 H, 13 R
HOU: 14 H, 11 R
LAL: 12 H, 14 R
DAL: 15 H, 13 R
Analysis: The Warriors are in great shape. After their 5-game road trip that's up next, they play 16 of their last 22 at home. Houston is also comfortable. The Lakers only win 1/3rd of their games on the road, and they have the most road games left.
Back-to-back games left
GSW: 5 (@IND/@NYK, @BOS/@PHI, HOU/MIL, @HOU/@NOR,OKC/@LAL)
UTA: 3 (@CHI/@NYK, @DAL/PHI, @POR/BKN)
HOU: 4 (@GSW/@PHX, @MEM/LAC, @POR/@DEN, SAC/@PHX)
LAL: 6 (@DAL/@DEN, OKC/@NOH, @ORL/@ATL, SAC/@PHX, @MIN/@MIL, NOH/@POR)
DAL: 5 (MIL/@MEM, @SA/CLE, OKC/@ATL, @DEN/@SAC, @NOH/MEM)
Analysis: Utah is setting pretty with only 3 B2Bs, and in 2 of those the 2nd game is at home. The Lakers, the team with the oldest star players, have the most B2Bs with the 2nd game of every B2B being on the road.
Winning % of teams they will play
GSW: 0.500; 11 games left v/s >0.500 teams (6 home, 5 away)
UTA: 0.530; 15 games left v/s >0.500 teams (7 home, 8 away)
HOU: 0.470; 9 games left v/s >0.500 teams (6 home, 3 away)
LAL: 0.490; 12 games left v/s >0.500 (6 home, 6 away)
DAL: 0.520; 16 games left v/s >0.500 (10 home, 6 away)
Analysis: With the toughest remaining schedule by win% and 8 road games against 0.500+ teams, this is Utah's Achilles heel. This parameter is also why IMO Houston is a lock for the playoffs. The Lakers are in good shape while Dallas has an uphill road.
Games left v/s each other
GSW: 5 (HOU, @HOU, LAL, UTA, @LAL)
UTA: 3 (@HOU, @DAL, @GSW)
HOU: 6 (DAL, @DAL, @GSW, GSW, UTA, @LAL)
LAL: 5 (@ DAL, @GSW, DAL, GSW, HOU)
DAL: 5 (LAL, @HOU, HOU, UTA, @LAL)
Analysis: This parameter represents both an opportunity and a threat. The Rockets have a real chance of strengthening their position if they win most of these games, but also are at risk if they lose them. Utah's record will be the least affected by games against this group.
Prediction (barring injuries):
- Houston and Golden State make it fairly easily and take the 6/7 spots. Both are playing well of late and have a fairly favorable schedule left.
- Dallas falls by the wayside in late March/early April as they run into a series of tough opponents
- It's a toss-up between the Lakers and Utah for the 8th spot. The Jazz have clinched the tie-breaker and there are no more head-to-head games left, so the Lakers need to finish a game above the Jazz if they want to sneak in. This one could be decided before the 82nd and last game of the season for both teams. The Spurs have an opportunity to shut the door on the Lakers at Staples in LAL's 81st game, while Utah has 2 stratight games against Minnesota (80th and 81st games).
6. Houston
7. Golden State
8. Utah
I'd switch GS and HOU due to the schedule, but I agree with the overall analysis. If the Lakers are going to overtake anyone, it's Utah. Dallas is screwed imo.
I still think GSW can be a top 5 team in the West
This is the type of quality post I wish this board would produce more of. Just too many damn idiot Laker fans for that to happen though.
Dallas will make a run for it. They'll either be in or be eliminated on the last day.
the remaining top seed team games, i think if they get seeds locked up, expect some tanking against the lower seed teams just to force lakers out the picture
Great post! Thanks.
My take is that Houston is sure to make the playoffs but they will huff and puff their way in as they will have to integrate a rookie in and have lost a productive starter.
And there is no way the Lakers supplant the Warriors or the Jazz.
6. Warriors, 7. Rockets, 8. Jazz.
Good post. Don't see the lakers making it with Houston's great recent play.
Houston just lost to the Wizards
Houston just lost to the Wizards... that definitely doesn't help them
Anyways I agree, i see the Warriors, Rockets and Jazz in, the rest out.
utah have such a stable team that it's not nearly possible for them to blow such a comfortable lead imho. houston may probably switch to choking mode and vacate their spot for the lakers to sneak in. dallas can pray that both Utah and houston start to go a drought of wins and drop down the line, but the possibility ain't bigger than getting DH from free agency imho
Utah sucks on the road though, even more so than Houston.
6. Warriors
7. Lakers
8. Rockets
The Wizards are a different team with Wall. They've won 6 in a row against winning teams. Still doesn't excuse the loss when we were up 17, but it should be a lesson not to take the wiz lightly. Hoping TRob can come in and turn into rookie Farried.
Dallas is only 2 games behind us. I don't know why everyone thinks they will miss the playoffs.
the #8 spot is open for compe ion among three teams named lakers, rockets and mavs but only one team will make the playoffs. i wish the mavs would make it and it would be weird to watch the playoffs w/o mavs but they're the least favorite to win this race. the league will interven and rob the rockets when they think the time is right and they will definitely choose lakers over dallas imho
Utah is right in the thick of things as well. Houston has a much easier schedule than the Jazz. I'd say it's more likely the Rockets jump to 7th or 6th than fall 9th.
Also have a better point differential than LAL, GSW, or UTA.
Very good post, knowing how hard it is to put all that together (at least using free data).
I wouldn't count on the Spurs defeating the Lakers, they are probably resting by that time, unless the #1 seed is under dispute with the Thunder, so Lakers fans, start hoping for more Spurs wins!
Looking at the info posted, the B2B OKC/@NOH looks like it could be a breaking point, its only a few days away.
Nice post.
Can we get an update, Warlord?
Current standings:
6. GSW 34-27
7. HOU - 33-28
8. UTAH - 32-28
9. LAL 30-30
UTAH remaining schedule (Holy that's brutal)
OPP TIME/TV Wed 6 @CLE 7:00-FxRM Fri 8 @CHI 8:00-FxRM Sat 9 @NYK 7:30-NBAt Mon 11 DET 9:00-FxRM Wed 13 @OKC 8:00-ESPN Sat 16 MEM 10:00-NBAt Mon 18 NYK 10:30-ESPN Wed 20 @HOU 8:00-FxRM Fri 22 @SAS 8:30-FxRM Sun 24 @DAL 7:30-FxRM Mon 25 PHI 9:00-FxRM Wed 27 PHO 9:00-FxRM Fri 29 @POR 10:00-FxRM Sat 30 BKN 9:00-FxRM
VS. Portland
VS. Denver
VS. Pelicans
@GSW
vs OKC
vs Minny
@ Minny
VS. Memphis
was tired of all these laker playoff threads, but this is sold tbh. well done
Rockets remaining
Wed 6 @DAL 8:30 Fri 8 @GSW 10:30-ESPN Sat 9 @PHO 9:00 Wed 13 PHO 8:00 Fri 15 MIN 8:00-NBAt Sun 17 GSW 7:00 Wed 20 UTH 8:00 Fri 22 CLE 8:00 Sun 24 SAS 7:00 Wed 27 IND 8:00 Fri 29 @MEM 8:00 Sat 30 LAC 8:00
Mon 1 ORL 8:00 Wed 3 @SAC 10:00 Fri 5 @POR 10:00 Sat 6 @DEN 9:00 Tue 9 PHO 8:00 Fri 12 MEM 8:00 Sun 14 SAC 7:00 Mon 15 @PHO 10:00 Wed 17 @LAL 10:30
Warriors remaining
Wed 6 SAC 10:30-CBHD Fri 8 HOU 10:30-ESPN Sat 9 MIL 10:30-CBHD Mon 11 NYK 10:30-CBHD Wed 13 DET 10:30-CBHD Fri 15 CHI 10:30-WGNS Sun 17 @HOU 7:00-CBHD Mon 18 @NOR 8:00-CBHD Wed 20 @SAS 8:30-CBHD Sat 23 WAS 10:30-CBHD Mon 25 LAL 10:30-NBAt Wed 27 SAC 10:30-CBHD Sat 30 POR 10:30-CBHD
Wed 3 NOR 10:30 Fri 5 @PHO 10:00-CBHD Sun 7 UTH 8:00-CBHD Tue 9 MIN 10:30-CBHD Thu 11 OKC 10:30-TNT Fri 12 @LAL 10:30-CBHD Mon 15 SAS 10:30-NBAt Wed 17 @POR 10:30-ESPN
Lakers remaining
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
