Are the Spurs Better Equipped To Win it All Now?

[racm]

I'll have to look into this a little more, but the "improved defense" schtick might not actually be true.

Last year, the Thunder were 11th in defensive efficiency, while he Spurs were 10th. It was basically a tie.
This year, the Thunder are 8th and the Spurs are 3rd. Yay! .....maybe

Remember that last season was basically two mini-seasons for the Spurs: before and after the acquisitions of Jax and Diaw. Last year's Spurs were 10th in defense over the whole year, but given the absolute tear they went on after the trade deadline, I'd have to think they were better than 10th on defense after that. I'd be really grateful if someone could either look up those numbers or tell me how to do it. My hypothesis is that the Spurs' defense this year is about the same as it was post-deadline last year, meaning that this year's team is not appreciably better than the one that finished last season.

That said, the Spurs were really, really good at the end of last season and there's no shame in not improving from that. Also, the Thunder will be easier to beat in the playoffs because Harden to Kevin Martin is a significant downgrade no matter how you slice it.

I have said many times that I believe last year's WCF result was an upset, and I still believe that. If the Spurs can get back to the WCF against OC, especially with home court, I really like the Spurs' chances.

3 point line defense?

I think the big difference is that last season's squad went on a tear buoyed by being lights out offensively and being pretty okay on defense. Final scores were closer to 120-100 than what we see now, closer to 105-90, and that's considering the pace has remained more or less constant.

[rascal]

It is the same team as last year with an upgrade to Splitter and a decline in Jackson and Manu.

[superbigtime]

Splitter's improved play will make the difference, as will Kawhi's progression and absence of Harden. But if Spurs struggle with FG% (Bonner, Green, Neal), it's a tossup.

[thispego]

I am not to worried about Stern refs. Spurs just need to play one game at a time.

You're foolish then

[pookenstein]

1. Can Tiago ramain nearly as effective at the line in the Playoffs as he is in the RS?
2. Can Green make his 3's or will he be in a slump?

To me these two are the biggest things the Spurs have to accomplish if we want to beat them. If the Big3 don't suck and both Tiago and Danny can step up we'll be good.

[Seventyniner]

3 point line defense?

I think the big difference is that last season's squad went on a tear buoyed by being lights out offensively and being pretty okay on defense. Final scores were closer to 120-100 than what we see now, closer to 105-90, and that's considering the pace has remained more or less constant.

I wanted to find the post-deadline numbers for things like opponent eFG%, defensive efficiency, etc. but your point is valid; looking up raw points scored and allowed is far easier to calculate.

[racm]

1. Can Tiago ramain nearly as effective at the line in the Playoffs as he is in the RS?
2. Can Green make his 3's or will he be in a slump?

To me these two are the biggest things the Spurs have to accomplish if we want to beat them. If the Big3 don't suck and both Tiago and Danny can step up we'll be good.

More like "will his cold streak coincide with the WCF again". He's more of an uber-streaky guy than Matt Bonner.

[pookenstein]

More like "will his cold streak coincide with the WCF again". He's more of an uber-streaky guy than Matt Bonner.

Yep, that's what I meant.

[Mel_13]

I'll have to look into this a little more, but the "improved defense" schtick might not actually be true.

Last year, the Thunder were 11th in defensive efficiency, while he Spurs were 10th. It was basically a tie.
This year, the Thunder are 8th and the Spurs are 3rd. Yay! .....maybe

Remember that last season was basically two mini-seasons for the Spurs: before and after the acquisitions of Jax and Diaw. Last year's Spurs were 10th in defense over the whole year, but given the absolute tear they went on after the trade deadline, I'd have to think they were better than 10th on defense after that. I'd be really grateful if someone could either look up those numbers or tell me how to do it. My hypothesis is that the Spurs' defense this year is about the same as it was post-deadline last year, meaning that this year's team is not appreciably better than the one that finished last season.

That said, the Spurs were really, really good at the end of last season and there's no shame in not improving from that. Also, the Thunder will be easier to beat in the playoffs because Harden to Kevin Martin is a significant downgrade no matter how you slice it.

I have said many times that I believe last year's WCF result was an upset, and I still believe that. If the Spurs can get back to the WCF against OC, especially with home court, I really like the Spurs' chances.

I wanted to find the post-deadline numbers for things like opponent eFG%, defensive efficiency, etc. but your point is valid; looking up raw points scored and allowed is far easier to calculate.

I don't know where to get the advanced stats, but you can use the filters on basketball reference to get opp FG% and opp 3P% and other counting data. The numbers point to a conclusion that the Spurs were, as you suspect, better defensively after acquiring Jack and Diaw. They have also, contrary to your hypothesis, markedly improved their defense this year when compared to the post-deadline numbers.

Using opp FG% and 3p% as two useful metrics and dividing last season into three 22 game sections (game 21 was the Dallas game where the bench played the 4th quarter and overtime; game 45 was Diaw's first game and Jack's third game):

Games 1-22: .456/.339
Games 23-44: .452/.381
Games 45-66: .447.335

2012-13: .439/325

Here's an example of one of the searches:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/..._by=opp_fg_pct

[EricB]

The were able to cover Tony with Thabo because they had Harden to cover Manu. One other big difference between Harden and Martin is that Martin is basically a passive, disinterested defender. They'll have to put Thabo on Manu when both he and Tony are in the game, meaning crunch time.

Exactly what I have been saying. They could only afford Thabo on Parker cause of Harden.

[Seventyniner]

I don't know where to get the advanced stats, but you can use the filters on basketball reference to get opp FG% and opp 3P% and other counting data. The numbers point to a conclusion that the Spurs were, as you suspect, better defensively after acquiring Jack and Diaw. They have also, contrary to your hypothesis, markedly improved their defense this year when compared to the post-deadline numbers.

Using opp FG% and 3p% as two useful metrics and dividing last season into three 22 game sections (game 21 was the Dallas game where the bench played the 4th quarter and overtime; game 45 was Diaw's first game and Jack's third game):

Games 1-22: .456/.339
Games 23-44: .452/.381
Games 45-66: .447.335

2012-13: .439/325

Thanks Mel. That is great stuff.

Next week when I get back to my computer (as opposed to posting on my phone as I am now) I'll play around with those queries. It will really help with my followup stats post I plan to do in the next couple of weeks.

So the Spurs really have improved, even from the end of last season. The difference is remarkable, really. I think it's fair to compare OC's full season stats from last year to this year due to a lack of major mid-season moves either year. They're a good bit better on offense and slightly improved on defense, but the Spurs' defensive improvement is far greater.

[look_at_g_shred]

The were able to cover Tony with Thabo because they had Harden to cover Manu. One other big difference between Harden and Martin is that Martin is basically a passive, disinterested defender. They'll have to put Thabo on Manu when both he and Tony are in the game, meaning crunch time.

This is a very good point my friend..

[racm]

Thanks Mel. That is great stuff.

Next week when I get back to my computer (as opposed to posting on my phone as I am now) I'll play around with those queries. It will really help with my followup stats post I plan to do in the next couple of weeks.

So the Spurs really have improved, even from the end of last season. The difference is remarkable, really. I think it's fair to compare OC's full season stats from last year to this year due to a lack of major mid-season moves either year. They're a good bit better on offense and slightly improved on defense, but the Spurs' defensive improvement is far greater.

And IIRC they're even better at drawing fouls this season.

[emanueldavidginobili]

Im liking our chances, TP Tiago Danny and Kawhi are all better this season and Duncan is also playing well, and I know Manu has got older but when it comes playoff time hes going to be going all out knowing it could be his last playoffs, even against the Thunder last year he had 20 and 26 in game one and two wins and went off for 34 in a big pivotal game 5 that we should have one but Harden hit that ridiculous shot. And Harden meant ALOT to that team especially in crunch time and getting to the free throw line and also defensively, he was also sort of the PG at times when RW couldn't handle it to make plays for his teammates

[wildbill2u]

We're probably a better team than last year--but other teams have improved. It all comes down to whether other teams will be able to shut down TP by shutting down the lane and clogging his passing lanes.

I'm not crazy about relying on Green, Diaw and Kwahi hitting the kick out 3. That's the OKC strategy that killed us last year. They said if we were going to win it wouldn't be because of TP. No one could step up and TP kept trying to do the impossible against a stacked lane defense.

[aal04]

The biggest improvements we have this year is also the same for OKC.

Our unproven younguns got a lot of experience.

Green, Kawi, Splitter and also KD, WB, Ibaka.

I think we are probably worse off vs OKC than last year. Harden v Kmart + Fisher plus valuable experience. But we should have beaten them last year whereas this year its a toss up. its not a lost cause, i think it will come down to whos hot on the night.

Also Miami got better as well. They are still gelling and they acquired some nice signings.

Not saying we are worse, im saying we are better, but so are the opposition and i can see the odds very similar to last year. ie - Wouldnt be surprised if we get eliminated in the wcf and wouldnt be surprised if we win a ring.

Its close

[racm]

We're probably a better team than last year--but other teams have improved. It all comes down to whether other teams will be able to shut down TP by shutting down the lane and clogging his passing lanes.

I'm not crazy about relying on Green, Diaw and Kwahi hitting the kick out 3. That's the OKC strategy that killed us last year. They said if we were going to win it wouldn't be because of TP. No one could step up and TP kept trying to do the impossible against a stacked lane defense.

Fwiw the Spurs are less reliant on the 3 ball this season. I see the offense incorporates more cuts (hi Jerry Sloan!) than before.

[Russ]

Jack effectively defending LeBron for a stretch to everyone's amazement.

Neal hitting huge shots in swing games ala Mario Ellie, Steve Kerr, Jaren Jackson, Jerome Kersey, Horry, etc.

To beat the Heat (if they can get past OKC), the Spurs will need unexpected contributions from guys out to make a name.

I could even see DeJuan Blair with some eye-popping out-of-the-blue contribution in the course of a successful playoff run.

But interior D will likely be the key. Duncan, Splitter, etc. need to protect the hoop allowing the other defenders to radiate out and wreak havoc on the athletic guys who always kill the Spurs in the playoffs (like Westbrook). Like it or not (given his fragile state), Duncan remains the key.

[therealtruth]

Fwiw the Spurs are less reliant on the 3 ball this season. I see the offense incorporates more cuts (hi Jerry Sloan!) than before.

They should have been doing that since forever. It shouldn't have taken recent playoff loses for Pop to realize that. The same thing happened to us in '04 when we lost 4 straight. We were able to make up for it in the past because of Tim's dominance down low. In '04 Malone's defense on him prevented him from having his usual effect. Teams have been using the same blueprint because it works.

[benstanfield]

LBJ might just be unstoppable right now. In crunch time his possessions end in points, assists or free throws.

Kawhi is a year older but so is Jack. Beating KD and then Lebron is a TALL order.

[Richie]

Beating the Heat is all about Timmy/Tiago. Pop needs to find a defensive scheme that allows us to keep them both on the floor instead of matching up small with the Heat. If we can do that, we can beat the Heat.

If we can't, then Timmy has to carry us alone. If we win, it will likely have to be a reverse of 2007. Tony will be the best playoff player, but Timmy will have to win the Finals MVP. Pound the ball inside to Timmy against Bosh and hope he can carry us to 4 wins out of 7. Inside is where we have the big match up advantage against the Heat, and we need to use it.

[BatManu20]

LBJ might just be unstoppable right now. In crunch time his possessions end in points, assists or free throws.

Kawhi is a year older but so is Jack. Beating KD and then Lebron is a TALL order.

This. It's not that the Spurs are lacking a key component to win it all, it's jut that they don't have the best player on the planet on their team. That's why I think that even if we made it the to Finals, we'd lose to Miami. Lebron's in God mode right now, and there's really nothing anyone can do to stop him (he had 40 pts and 16 dimes tonight). Then you factor in Wade and Bosh who are both having career years this year, combined with a plethora of 3-point shooters on that team, and there's nobody that can beat them in a 7 game series imo. Barring an injury to one of their big 3, the Heat are winning the Championship this year imho.

[TD 21]

Beating the Heat is all about Timmy/Tiago. Pop needs to find a defensive scheme that allows us to keep them both on the floor instead of matching up small with the Heat. If we can do that, we can beat the Heat.

If we can't, then Timmy has to carry us alone. If we win, it will likely have to be a reverse of 2007. Tony will be the best playoff player, but Timmy will have to win the Finals MVP. Pound the ball inside to Timmy against Bosh and hope he can carry us to 4 wins out of 7. Inside is where we have the big match up advantage against the Heat, and we need to use it.

Not with the Heat currently starting a more conventional lineup (Haslem replacing Battier), he doesn't. In fact, this plays right into the Spurs hands, because it allows them to have Duncan defend Haslem and Splitter defend Bosh. That kills two birds with one stone, in that it means Duncan doesn't have to defend the pick and pop (against the best mid range shooter in the league, to boot) and that he can mostly stay within' the shadow of the basket, since Haslem's once reliable mid range shot has abandoned him post foot injury. I'd expect Spoelstra to relent and start Battier in game 3.

I agree with you though that Duncan is the key to the series. If he's the Duncan pre injury and he can extrapolate that performance over something like 38 mpg, the Spurs probably win.

As for James, as historically great as he's playing, I don't know that any player is "unstoppable". People claim Jordan was in his prime, but the reality is, he never faced a great team in the Finals. The Jazz were probably the best of the bunch and they were very, very good, but they weren't as good as this Spurs team, nor were they uniquely suited to attack the Bulls weaknesses the way this Spurs team is the Heat's. I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

[Man In Black]

God mode needed double ot to get past Sacramento... today at home.

I'll take TP going demi-god mode plus TEAM ball against them or OKC.
I, for one, ain't going to prematurely give the Heat the LOB.

[therealtruth]

Not with the Heat currently starting a more conventional lineup (Haslem replacing Battier), he doesn't. In fact, this plays right into the Spurs hands, because it allows them to have Duncan defend Haslem and Splitter defend Bosh. That kills two birds with one stone, in that it means Duncan doesn't have to defend the pick and pop (against the best mid range shooter in the league, to boot) and that he can mostly stay within' the shadow of the basket, since Haslem's once reliable mid range shot has abandoned him post foot injury. I'd expect Spoelstra to relent and start Battier in game 3.

I agree with you though that Duncan is the key to the series. If he's the Duncan pre injury and he can extrapolate that performance over something like 38 mpg, the Spurs probably win.

As for James, as historically great as he's playing, I don't know that any player is "unstoppable". People claim Jordan was in his prime, but the reality is, he never faced a great team in the Finals. The Jazz were probably the best of the bunch and they were very, very good, but they weren't as good as this Spurs team, nor were they uniquely suited to attack the Bulls weaknesses the way this Spurs team is the Heat's. I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

What Bull's weaknesses would that be? It's always hard to compare different eras.