Spurs The Only Team That Can Give The Heat a Run For Their Money?

[hater]

I don't get all the hype around Miami. They're not unbeatable, they have more losses than the Spurs at this point.

no they don't

If the Spurs play their game, at their high intensity level, with Ginobili, Parker, Duncan, Leonard, Green, Splitter all playing their absolute best; with Mills and Bonner knocking down threes; with Jax adding toughness; and with Blair keeping seats warm for the players on the Bench, I believe the Spurs are unbeatable and will go all the way. However, injuries and ailments will deter it.

agree. Basically dozens of things have to go exactly right for spurs to have a chance, on the other hand Heat have 1 thing to get right, give it to Lebron.

[TD 21]

- Duncan needs to play at prime level..Miami is susceptible to opposing bigs dominating them..Tim needs to average around 28-13 if the Spurs are going to win the series IMO..

28 ppg from Duncan throughout a series, is not a realistic number and I also don't think it's one they need to beat them. Clearly, he has to average in the 20's, but more than how much he scores, they need him to do two things offensively: 1) Punish Bosh/Haslem early in the post, thereby forcing them to fully commit to double teaming (they'll probably start off by half double teaming) and 2) Force them to feel obligated to play as much of any of Haslem, Andersen and Anthony, as possible, because all and particularly the latter two, cramp their spacing.

The Spurs' playing big could work, but I doubt Pop sticks with it..Splitter would not be able to beat Lebron in the post, while James would kill him on the other end..they will have to hope that Kawhi and Jackson do a decent job on both ends of the floor..

They could go with Battier on Splitter, but even if they go with James, so long as Battier is on the court, the Spurs can play Splitter next to Duncan. The only time they won't be able to, is when the Heat go with a three guard alignment, with James at PF, because then they'll be no one to hide him on.


To answer the question in the le of the thread, no. The Thunder can "give them a run" and maybe the Pacers and Bulls (depending on what level Rose is at, obviously). But the Spurs are the only one who can beat them.

[Buddy Holly]

Boston beat Miami the year before Lebron and Bosh arrived. Miami's made the finals twice since that happened.

Typing error. Also should be almost.

[therealtruth]

The Mavs showed the answer in 2011. Start two 7 footers and keep Lebron out of the paint.

[racm]

The Spurs would get plastered in 5 going against Miami. The Spurs have no one who can check LeBron or Wade. Even Bosh plays well against the Spurs since going to Miami. Battier and Mike Miller love to murder SA.

Also, Spurs struggle against good defensive teams and Miami would completely disrupt the Spurs offensive flow.

Wut? They've swept the season series against Indiana. They're up 2-1 against Memphis with the loss coming in OT (and Tony shot the game tying 3). They blew out Chicago without the Big 3 + Jax.

It's not so much good defense as it is teams that love to force turnovers like LAC and Miami, but neither of these teams guard the 3 ball that well.

[RD2191]

you guys are giving the heat way too much respect, lebron still has no killer instinct and he will still fold under pressure, the heat are not unbeatable.

[racm]

you guys are giving the heat way too much respect, lebron still has no killer instinct and he will still fold under pressure, the heat are not unbeatable.

They're also mortal on the road; sure the Spurs are too but at one point they were below .500 on the road this season.

[Obstructed_View]

Typing error. Also should be almost.

Ah. Gotcha. Boston pushed them to 7 games. Last year was likely the last crack of daylight for anyone else to beat them, though. Lebron is too good, the supporting cast is now much better, and they play crushing defense when they want to. The addition of Birdman to improve their inside defense could be a big upgrade as well.

[RD2191]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qcg6DfMKJMk

birdman can eat

[Obstructed_View]

28 ppg from Duncan throughout a series, is not a realistic number and I also don't think it's one they need to beat them. Clearly, he has to average in the 20's, but more than how much he scores, they need him to do two things offensively: 1) Punish Bosh/Haslem early in the post, thereby forcing them to fully commit to double teaming (they'll probably start off by half double teaming) and 2) Force them to feel obligated to play as much of any of Haslem, Andersen and Anthony, as possible, because all and particularly the latter two, cramp their spacing.

Points and rebounds from Duncan don't really matter. It's the three and a half blocks he puts up per 36 that's going to be the difference. I don't think the Spurs have a shot if Duncan can't give 35 minutes without getting winded.

[Obstructed_View]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qcg6DfMKJMk

birdman can eat

at Mullin "... and take that. Also."

[Proxy]

Baseless speculation aside because the recent MIA/SA games don't reveal anything. OKC isn't going to out-star Miami. Maybe the Spurs can out-execute and out-coach them with everyone playing inspired, physical, and unafraid if the refs allow it. Probably not but hopefully we see these matchups play out instead of watching OKC get dominated again.

[TD 21]

Points and rebounds from Duncan don't really matter. It's the three and a half blocks he puts up per 36 that's going to be the difference. I don't think the Spurs have a shot if Duncan can't give 35 minutes without getting winded.

Rebounds do. They need him to own the glass, which he should have no problem doing against them. And he can definitely play 35 mpg without getting winded. With the shape he's in, how he paces himself and how, the deeper you go in the playoffs, the longer the TV timeouts become, that's not an issue.

Realistically though, for them to beat the Thunder/Heat, he'd probably have to average closer to 40.

[Obstructed_View]

Rebounds do. They need him to own the glass, which he should have no problem doing against them. And he can definitely play 35 mpg without getting winded. With the shape he's in, how he paces himself and how, the deeper you go in the playoffs, the longer the TV timeouts become, that's not an issue.

Realistically though, for them to beat the Thunder/Heat, he'd probably have to average closer to 40.

Duncan's played 40 minutes like twice since December 1. He's going to have to start getting more minutes down the stretch if there's any prayer of having him put up anything close to 40 productive minutes in the postseason.

[Seventyniner]

As long as we don't give up putbacks, that's all you can ask for out of that lineup. Lebron thrived on the offensive glass

I don't know about LeBron himself, but the Heat as a team are 27th in offensive rebound percentage. Sure, the Spurs are 30th, but offensive rebounding is a weakness for the Heat too.

[Seventyniner]

It's a bit harder to pencil the Heat in for the le this year, too, because the Heat's defense has really fallen off. They were 5th in DRtg in 2011 (lost in the Finals), 4th last year (won the le), but are 12th this year. Sure you can give the coasting argument, but at this point in the season, stats tell a lot about a team.

Looking at the four factors more closely, this year's Heat team actually resembles last year's Spurs team in many ways. Great offense, just-above-average defense, bad offensive rebounding, etc.

[Robz4000]

It's a bit harder to pencil the Heat in for the le this year, too, because the Heat's defense has really fallen off. They were 5th in DRtg in 2011 (lost in the Finals), 4th last year (won the le), but are 12th this year. Sure you can give the coasting argument, but at this point in the season, stats tell a lot about a team.

Looking at the four factors more closely, this year's Heat team actually resembles last year's Spurs team in many ways. Great offense, just-above-average defense, bad offensive rebounding, etc.

I think it has a lot to do with them going small. Considering it's what won them the le last year I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

[tmtcsc]

People act like Miami didn't lose to Dallas. People act like Miami didn't almost get beat by Boston last year. People act like Miami is this undefeated, unmovable object. They're not.

Couldn't agree more. We looked unbeatable last year. See where that got us? Miami is still a two 2.5 man team. Make LeBron beat us himself and we'll be fine. He's not comfortable in that role.

[TampaDude]

Folks, there is only one team in the West that can beat Miami, and that is the Spurs.

LeBron will be thinking, "Oh, ...not THESE guys again..."

[ffadicted]

Amen

[xellos88330]

I think it is a toss up really. I will say that I think the Spurs total team "A" game is better than the Heat "A" game.

[rmt]

MIA's "bad" defensive numbers are due to Spo going small in the early part of the season. I think he was practicing the small ball for OKC and SAS (and this was before they got Birdman). Pop, of course, will go small to adjust to Lebron/Battier at PF. IMO, they should try staying at home on everyone else and let Lebron have his (rotating Diaw, SJax and Leonard on him). The past few games they've played (at full strength) have been 30 point blowouts where MIA's 3 pt shooters got hot. Pop seemed to play a lot of Diaw on Lebron since Diaw's been a Spur (I guess it's Pop way of not going "small" - not doubling Lebron, contested jump shots but Lebron doesn't get to post up a smaller player). Unfortunately, Lebron can play almost the whole game and Diaw can't.

I'm hoping that MIA continues to win (long win streak), builds up VERY high media expectations and has a let down preferably against the Spurs or some other team capable of beating them (meaning not in the first round). That'd be ideal for the Spurs - beating a hyped up MIA team. But, short of an injury to Lebron (and he never gets injured), there's no way to beat MIA with him playing at this level.

[TheGoldStandard]

Miami is 18th in the league in FTAs and 10th in FTAs allowed..

Lebron and Wade aren't in the top 5 in FTAs despite shooting more shots in the paint than 4 of the players in the top 5..

Anybody that actually watches Heat games, rather than assuming, would conclude that they don't get an egregious amount or calls, especially against teams like Indiana, tbh..

Wade and Lebron average around 6 attempts a game during the regular season, who rounds out the top 5? Harden, Durant and Westbrook are somewhere in the mix but last year they were barely afforded any opportunities to get to the line during the finals because the refs are under the impression that Wade and LeBron don't foul especially LeBron. You can't play that kind of physical defense and not have fouls but James can go games without a foul called on him and when they do call something on him it's like he's being pranked he can't believe it. The same thing will happen this season, the 6 will increase to either 7 or 8 a game and whoever defends him will be in foul trouble by the end of the 1st quarter.

[racm]

Wade and Lebron average around 6 attempts a game during the regular season, who rounds out the top 5? Harden, Durant and Westbrook are somewhere in the mix but last year they were barely afforded any opportunities to get to the line during the finals because the refs are under the impression that Wade and LeBron don't foul especially LeBron. You can't play that kind of physical defense and not have fouls but James can go games without a foul called on him and when they do call something on him it's like he's being pranked he can't believe it. The same thing will happen this season, the 6 will increase to either 7 or 8 a game and whoever defends him will be in foul trouble by the end of the 1st quarter.

It depends on who defends him. Guys like Paul George who have the reputation of being defensive stoppers will get the benefit of the doubt as to physical play.



I believe Kawhi Leonard's coming around to that reputation.

[ThaBigFundamental21]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qcg6DfMKJMk

birdman can eat

I had a feeling this was Tim "Duncan" on him right after the ball slap to the face!!!!