Race to #1 Seed, San Antonio or Oklahoma City?

[cd021]

With the way the Spurs have looked recently I have no idea how you can come to that conclusion. Especially with the uncertainty around Parker still. It's going to take him awhile to get back to 100% and DEN, MEM and MIA are some of the hottest teams in the league. Mix in HOU and LAC around that and the Spurs could easily drop 2 games or more if they don't play well.

2.5 game buffer and tie breaker. Spurs can realistically go 4-2 or at the worst 3-3 and still go relatively unscathed.

[Seventyniner]

2.5 game buffer and tie breaker.

I thought this board had been through this before. The Spurs basically will lose the tiebreaker unless they somehow manage to win at OC to take the season series.

Right now the Spurs are 23-4 vs the East and the Thunder are 17-7. If the Spurs win even one of their three remaining games against the East (all at home against the Heat, Magic, and Hawks) then they will finish with a better record against the East than OC. That means a worse record against the West if they are tied. The Spurs can definitely lose the Miami game, and maaaaaybe the Atlanta game, but if the Spurs lose at home to Orlando, they'll have much bigger problems than a lack of homecourt.

[kaji157]

The only game that should be in question will be the Miami game, I'd probably sit the guys the day before the OKC game so they'll be ready.

Agreed, i would like Pop to let the subs play against Orlando. I think they can take it.

[cd021]

I thought this board had been through this before. The Spurs basically will lose the tiebreaker unless they somehow manage to win at OC to take the season series.

Right now the Spurs are 23-4 vs the East and the Thunder are 17-7. If the Spurs win even one of their three remaining games against the East (all at home against the Heat, Magic, and Hawks) then they will finish with a better record against the East than OC. That means a worse record against the West if they are tied. The Spurs can definitely lose the Miami game, and maaaaaybe the Atlanta game, but if the Spurs lose at home to Orlando, they'll have much bigger problems than a lack of homecourt.

Isn't the tie breaker among west conference record?

(-) Tie breaker not needed (better overall winning percentage)
(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
(2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage
(3) Division won-lost percentage
(4) Conference won-lost percentage
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
(7) Net Points, all games

In that case the Spurs are still very close to having the same record vs west teams.
.707 to .733 winning percentages. And thats assuming the Spurs won't win the @ OKC game. Lets not get a head of our selves just yet. Plus Last time We had no Kawhi & Jackson was playing with a fractured finger.

[Seventyniner]

Isn't the tie breaker among west conference record?

(-) Tie breaker not needed (better overall winning percentage)
(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
(2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage
(3) Division won-lost percentage
(4) Conference won-lost percentage
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
(7) Net Points, all games

In that case the Spurs are still very close to having the same record vs west teams.
.707 to .733 winning percentages. And thats assuming the Spurs won't win the @ OKC game. Lets not get a head of our selves just yet. Plus Last time We had no Kawhi & Jackson was playing with a fractured finger.

Perhaps I wasn't clear. The Spurs and Thunder play an equal number of games against the West (52) and East (30). Being 23-4 vs the East, the worst the Spurs can finish is 23-7. The best the Thunder can do vs the East is also 23-7 because they're 17-7 now.

So if the Spurs win any of their three remaining games against the East (vs MIA, vs ORL, vs ATL), which is quite likely, or if the Thunder lose any one of their remaining games against the East (@ORL, vs WAS, @MIL, @IND, vs NY, vs MIL), which is also decently likely, then the Spurs will have to finish with a better record vs the East.

This means that if the Spurs and Thunder finish the season tied, and the Thunder win the final matchup with the Spurs to even the season series at 2-2 (likely imo), then the Thunder will have a better record vs the West and thus win the tiebreaker. The division win-loss percentage tiebreaker is only for teams in the same division. It's a shame, too, because the Spurs are crushing the Southwest division this season.

What this boils down to is that you can't really pay attention to the conference record tiebreaker right now because in order for it to matter, the Spurs have to go 0-3 and the Thunder 6-0 in remaining games against the East.

[cd021]

Perhaps I wasn't clear. The Spurs and Thunder play an equal number of games against the West (52) and East (30). Being 23-4 vs the East, the worst the Spurs can finish is 23-7. The best the Thunder can do vs the East is also 23-7 because they're 17-7 now.

So if the Spurs win any of their three remaining games against the East (vs MIA, vs ORL, vs ATL), which is quite likely, or if the Thunder lose any one of their remaining games against the East (@ORL, vs WAS, @MIL, @IND, vs NY, vs MIL), which is also decently likely, then the Spurs will have to finish with a better record vs the East.

This means that if the Spurs and Thunder finish the season tied, and the Thunder win the final matchup with the Spurs to even the season series at 2-2 (likely imo), then the Thunder will have a better record vs the West and thus win the tiebreaker. The division win-loss percentage tiebreaker is only for teams in the same division. It's a shame, too, because the Spurs are crushing the Southwest division this season.

What this boils down to is that you can't really pay attention to the conference record tiebreaker right now because in order for it to matter, the Spurs have to go 0-3 and the Thunder 6-0 in remaining games against the East.

You're confusing the out of me. So you're saying that OKC will even the series which will negate the season series ( I get that ), Then you say that the West conference record is negated because they play the same amount of games vs the west. ( thats where you're losing me.) I've never heard that two teams record vs an opposing conference will factor into a tie breaker. It doesn't say that on NBA.Com or Wikipedia. I am not sure where you're getting the vs. east conference record thing. It should not be a factor until it gets to the 6th scenario and even then its by east playoff teams not entire conferences.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

You're confusing the out of me. So you're saying that OKC will even the series which will negate the season series ( I get that ), Then you say that the West conference record is negated because they play the same amount of games vs the west. ( thats where you're losing me.) I've never heard that two teams record vs an opposing conference will factor into a tie breaker. It doesn't say that on NBA.Com or Wikipedia. I am not sure where you're getting the vs. east conference record thing. It should not be a factor until it gets to the 6th scenario and even then its by east playoff teams not entire conferences.

You must be slow, he broke it down very clearly

[Mel_13]

You're confusing the out of me. So you're saying that OKC will even the series which will negate the season series ( I get that ), Then you say that the West conference record is negated because they play the same amount of games vs the west. ( thats where you're losing me.) I've never heard that two teams record vs an opposing conference will factor into a tie breaker. It doesn't say that on NBA.Com or Wikipedia. I am not sure where you're getting the vs. east conference record thing. It should not be a factor until it gets to the 6th scenario and even then its by east playoff teams not entire conferences.

A team's overall record is the sum of their record v. the East and their record v. the West.

So, imagine two Western Conference teams with identical overall records. If team A has a better record against the East, then team B must have a better record against the West by the exact same margin.

In our real life scenario, the Spurs are a virtual lock to have a better record against the East than OKC. If the Spurs and OKC end the season with identical overall records, then it is a mathematical necessity that OKC's record v the West will be better than the Spurs' record v the West by the exact same margin that the Spurs' record v. the East is better than OKC's record v. the East.

Which means that if:

1. OKC wins the game on April 4th and
2. The Spurs finish with a better record v. the East and
3. The two teams end the season with identical overall records, then
4. OKC will get the #1 seed on the basis of better record against the West.

[Chinook]

You're confusing the out of me. So you're saying that OKC will even the series which will negate the season series ( I get that ), Then you say that the West conference record is negated because they play the same amount of games vs the west. ( thats where you're losing me.) I've never heard that two teams record vs an opposing conference will factor into a tie breaker. It doesn't say that on NBA.Com or Wikipedia. I am not sure where you're getting the vs. east conference record thing. It should not be a factor until it gets to the 6th scenario and even then its by east playoff teams not entire conferences.

Basically, the Spurs are more likely to win the first seed outright than be in some complicated scenario where they tie with OKC but win the tie-breaker. It would take a special type of collapse from both teams for that to happen. At that point, the Spurs and Thunder would have to worry about teams like Memphis and Denver catching them.

The main thing is that the Spurs can't afford a collapse down the stretch. They have a two-game cushion. That's it. If they win against OKC in two weeks, however, then it's pretty much a wrap.

[cd021]

You must be slow, he broke it down very clearly

His 2 comments weren't that clear. Mel_13 broke it down clearly.

[cd021]

A team's overall record is the sum of their record v. the East and their record v. the West.

So, imagine two Western Conference teams with identical overall records. If team A has a better record against the East, then team B must have a better record against the West by the exact same margin.

In our real life scenario, the Spurs are a virtual lock to have a better record against the East than OKC. If the Spurs and OKC end the season with identical overall records, then it is a mathematical necessity that OKC's record v the West will be better than the Spurs' record v the West by the exact same margin that the Spurs' record v. the East is better than OKC's record v. the East.

Which means that if:

1. OKC wins the game on April 4th and
2. The Spurs finish with a better record v. the East and
3. The two teams end the season with identical overall records, then
4. OKC will get the #1 seed on the basis of better record against the West.

I get it now. I didn't get why he kept referring to the record vs the east as a scenario. Appreciate the step by step.

[kaji157]

I have a question, isn´t the "(3) Division won-lost percentage" the first Tiebreaker before "(4) Conference won-lost percentage"?

In that case we have a better Division record than OKC as we are 12-2 and OKC is 7-5.

And another one, aren´t the real "Tiebreakers" the ones in NBA.com

Which are...

TIEBREAKER BASIS:
(-) Tie breaker not needed (better overall winning percentage)
(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
(2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage
(3) Conference won-lost percentage
(4) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
(6) Net Points, all games

Source: http://www.nba.com/standings/

[ElNono]

I have a question, isn´t the "(3) Division won-lost percentage" the first Tiebreaker before "(4) Conference won-lost percentage"?

That's when both teams are on the same Division.

[Obstructed_View]

Way too much negative space talk by mentioning the record against the east. Confused the out of me too.

[Seventyniner]

A team's overall record is the sum of their record v. the East and their record v. the West.

So, imagine two Western Conference teams with identical overall records. If team A has a better record against the East, then team B must have a better record against the West by the exact same margin.

In our real life scenario, the Spurs are a virtual lock to have a better record against the East than OKC. If the Spurs and OKC end the season with identical overall records, then it is a mathematical necessity that OKC's record v the West will be better than the Spurs' record v the West by the exact same margin that the Spurs' record v. the East is better than OKC's record v. the East.

Which means that if:

1. OKC wins the game on April 4th and
2. The Spurs finish with a better record v. the East and
3. The two teams end the season with identical overall records, then
4. OKC will get the #1 seed on the basis of better record against the West.

A better explanation than mine; I had to resort to a wall of text.

[101A]

Basically, the Spurs are more likely to win the first seed outright than be in some complicated scenario where they tie with OKC but win the tie-breaker. It would take a special type of collapse from both teams for that to happen. At that point, the Spurs and Thunder would have to worry about teams like Memphis and Denver catching them.

The main thing is that the Spurs can't afford a collapse down the stretch. They have a two-game cushion. That's it. If they win against OKC in two weeks, however, then it's pretty much a wrap.

If the Spurs can win in OKC on the 4th in 5, while the Thunder are on an extended Siesta?

Then the Spurs don't need HCA in the playoffs.

[Chinook]

If the Spurs can win in OKC on the 4th in 5, while the Thunder are on an extended Siesta?

Then the Spurs don't need HCA in the playoffs.

That type of rest is overrated, if you ask me. A team like the Thunder don't really need it. If anything, it makes them rusty. If the Spurs cruise through the first three games in that stretch, then they may be better rested than one would think.

[bklynspursfan]

OKC up by 4 in Orlando. End of the 3rd. 70-66

[cd021]

My Focus right now is on the middle seeds Clippers, Memphis & Denver. They could be spoilers to they Spurs OKC rematch in the WCF. Personally I think we can beat each of those 3 but OKC has matchup problems with each of them. All 3 teams separated by 1/2 a game.

[bklynspursfan]

Durant got bailed out at the end of that game. Probably warrants a warning from the league, he fell , even though the replay showed Nelson made no contact with him

[Spurs 4 The Win]

My Focus right now is on the middle seeds Clippers, Memphis & Denver. They could be spoilers to they Spurs OKC rematch in the WCF. Personally I think we can beat each of those 3 but OKC has matchup problems with each of them. All 3 teams separated by 1/2 a game.

I think Memphis or Denver getting the 3 seed is the best case scenario. Either of those teams could take out OKC. The Clippers cant beat us or OKC so I would like them at the 4/5 position and take them if they somehow beat their first round opponent.

[bklynspursfan]

Blazers up 2 at the half in OKC

[Kidd K]

Durant got bailed out at the end of that game. Probably warrants a warning from the league, he fell , even though the replay showed Nelson made no contact with him

Key Thunder players will never be significantly sanctioned by the NBA any time in the near future. Wishful thinking dude.

Ibaka didn't even get ejected for his huge flagrant a couple weeks ago when punching Blake Griffin in the sack, much less get suspended like he absolutely should have.

And you think Durant will get a warning for flopping?

[bklynspursfan]

Key Thunder players will never be significantly sanctioned by the NBA any time in the near future. Wishful thinking dude.

Ibaka didn't even get ejected for his huge flagrant a couple weeks ago when punching Blake Griffin in the sack, much less get suspended like he absolutely should have.

And you think Durant will get a warning for flopping?

I know he won't. Just as I know Harden won't. I said it warrants a warning.

But CP3 was finally warned, so who knows. Maybe the chosen 1 will get one, one day

[Kidd K]

I know he won't. Just as I know Harden won't. I said it warrants a warning.

But CP3 was finally warned, so who knows. Maybe the chosen 1 will get one, one day

Yeah I see what you mean. We all know those guys should get warnings and suspensions for , but they just never do. Like when Perkins elbowed Al jefferson earlier this year. . .nothing. Then Ibaka punches Griffin in the balls (and there's no way it can be argued that was an accident. . .he reels back and punches him on purpose), all he got was a slap on the wrist flagrant 1.

Now Durant flops when he's not even touched (worst kind of flop possible), not even a warning. Meanwhile, Spurs get fined 250k for resting a few guys once. That Durant reminds me of the Bosh flop a couple years ago.